Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan, August 2005

We explore and investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural, and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We next describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The analysis of the regulatory system of the dairy sector shows how its incentive structure affects the long-term prospects of various segments of the industry. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project, February 28, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing to improve the interstate system around Council Bluffs with improvements extending across the Missouri River on I-80 to east of the I-480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska, see Figure 1-1. The study considers long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along I-80, I-29, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Environmental Assessment, March 14, 2011

This Tier 2 Environmental Assessment (EA) presents the results of studies and analysis conducted to determine the potential impacts of proposed improvements in Segment 3 of the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) in the Council Bluffs metropolitan area. This document is tiered to the Tier 1 Draft and Final Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) that evaluated impacts of the overall CBIS Improvements Project, which includes five segments of independent utility This EA on Segment 3 of the Project is divided into the following sections: and encompasses 18 mainline miles of Interstate and 14 interchanges along Interstate 80 (I-80), Interstate 29 (I-29), and Interstate 480 (I-480).

Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Final Environment Impact Statement, July, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 (I-80) to east of the Interstate 480 (I-480) interchange in Omaha, Nebraska (see Figure 1-1). The study considers long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs.

Council Bluffs Interstate System Improvements Project Pottawatomie County, Iowa and Douglas County, Nebraska Project Number: IM-029-3(62)54-13-78, November 2004

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing to improve the interstate system around Council Bluffs with improvements extending across the Missouri River on I-80 to east of the I-480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska, see Figure 1-1. The study considers long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along I-80, I-29, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs. In 2001, Iowa DOT and FHWA initiated the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) Improvements Project. The agencies concluded that the environmental study process would be conducted in two stages; that is, a tiered approach would be applied. The project is being conducted pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) regulations issued by the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 1502.20, and FHWA 23 CFR Part 771.111, that permit tiering for large, complex NEPA studies. Tier 1 is an examination of the overall interstate system improvement needs, including a clear explanation of the area’s transportation needs, a study of alternatives to satisfy them, and broad consideration of potential environmental and social impacts. The Tier 1 evaluation is at a sufficient level of engineering and environmental detail to assist decision makers in selecting a preferred transportation strategy. Tier 1 includes preparation of a draft and final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that would disclose the potential environmental and social effects (evaluated at a planning level that considers a variety of conceptual designs) of the proposed improvements. The final EIS will conclude with a Record of Decision (ROD) that states the preferred plan for improvements to be implemented. Essentially, the Tier 1 document will establish the planning framework for the needed improvements. Because the scope of the overall system improvements is large, the interstate improvements would be implemented as a series of individual projects that fit into the overall planning framework. The Tier 1 Area of Potential Impact, which is discussed in detail in Section 4 is an alternative that considers a combination of the most reasonable concepts that have been developed, buffered by approximately 100 or more feet to ensure that any Tier 2 design modifications would remain inside the outer boundary.

Record of Decision Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project TIER 1 Environmental Impact Statement Council Bluffs, Iowa to Omaha, Nebraska FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01F Project Number: IM-029-3(62)54—13-78 Submitted Pursuant to 42 USC 4332(2)(c) and 49 USC 303, October 2008

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) approves the selection of the Reconstruction of All or Part of the Interstate (Construction Alternative) as the Preferred Alternative to provide improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 to east of the Interstate 480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska. The study considered long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. FHWA also approves the decisions to provide full access between West Broadway and I-29, design the I-80/I-29 overlap section as a dual-divided freeway, and locating the new I-80 Missouri River Bridge north of the existing bridge. Improvements to the interstate system, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 (see Figure 1) up to current engineering standards and accommodate future traffic needs. This Record of Decision (ROD) concludes Tier 1 of the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) Improvements Project. Tier 1 included an examination of the area’s transportation needs, a study of alternatives to satisfy them, and broad consideration of potential environmental and social impacts. The Tier 1 evaluation consisted of a sufficient level of engineering and environmental detail to assist decision makers in selecting a preferred transportation strategy. During Tier 1 a Draft EIS (FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01D) was developed which was approved by FHWA, Iowa DOT, and Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) in November 2004 with comments accepted through March 15, 2005. The Draft EIS summarized the alternatives that were considered to address the transportation needs around Council Bluffs; identified reconstruction of all or part of the interstate, the “Construction Alternative,” as the Preferred Alternative; identified three system-level decisions that needed to be made at the Tier 1 level; and invited comment on the issues. The Final EIS (FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01F) further documented the Construction Alternative as the Preferred Alternative and identified the recommended decisions for the three system level decisions that needed to be made in Tier 1. This ROD defines the Selected Alternative determined in the Tier 1 studies.

Council Bluffs Interstate System Improvement Project Tier 2, Segment 3 Pottawatomie County, Iowa Environmental Assessment, March 2011

This Tier 2 Environmental Assessment (EA) presents the results of studies and analyses conducted to determine the potential impacts of proposed improvements in Segment 3 of the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) in the Council Bluffs metropolitan area. This document is tiered to the Tier 1 Draft and Final Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) that evaluated impacts of the overall CBIS Improvements Project, which includes five segments of independent utility1 This EA on Segment 3 of the Project is divided into the following sections: and encompasses 18 mainline miles of Interstate and 14 interchanges along Interstate 80 (I-80), Interstate 29 (I-29), and Interstate 480 (I-480). More information about the tiering process is found below under Project Background. • Section 1 provides background information on the Project and discusses the relationship between the earlier Tier 1 EIS and this Tier 2 EA. It also discusses the proposed action and the area studied, the purpose of the Project, and the need for the Project based on transportation problems that currently exist or are expected in the future. • Section 2, Alternatives, identifies the range of alternatives considered for Segment 3 to address the transportation problems identified in Section 1. It also identifies the alternatives retained for further study in this EA and the preferred Segment 3 alternative. • Section 3, Affected Environment and Environmental Consequences, describes the general environment for each resource affected by the proposed improvements. It also describes the potential environmental impacts of the Segment 3 Project and methods to avoid, minimize, and mitigate impacts. • Section 4, Disposition, lists the agencies and organizations that will receive copies of this EA and the locations at which this EA will be available for public review. • Section 5, Comments and Coordination, summarizes the agency coordination and public involvement efforts in conjunction with the Segment 3 Project. • Section 6, Conclusion and Recommendation, summarizes resource impacts. • Section 7, References, lists the sources cited in this EA. For Segment 3, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) determined that an EA is the appropriate level of Tier 2 study to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. The primary purpose of an EA is to clearly establish the significance of a project’s environmental impacts. That analysis is included in this document.

Council Bluffs Interstate System Improvements Project Pottawattamie County, IA and Douglas County, Nebraska, July 19, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 (I-80) to east of the Interstate 480 (I-480) interchange in Omaha, Nebraska (see Figure 1-1). The study considers long-term, broad-base transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs.

Council Bluffs Interstate System Improvements Project Pottawattamie County, IA and Douglas County, Nebraska, July 19, 2005

The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are proposing improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 (I-80) to east of the Interstate 480 (I-480) interchange in Omaha, Nebraska (see Figure 1-1). The study considers long-term, broad-base transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system1, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. These improvements, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 up to current engineering standards and modernize the roadway to accommodate future traffic needs.

Signing on Very Low Volume Rurd Roads Iowa DOT Project HR-262, July, 1984

Research was undertaken to define an appropriate level of use of traffic control devices on rural secondary roads that carry very low traffic volumes. The goal of this research was to improve the safety and efficiency of travel on the rural secondary road system. This goal was to be accomplished by providing County Engineers with guidance concerning the cost-effective use of traffic control devices on very low volume rural roads. A further objective was to define the range of traffic volumes on the roads for which the recommendations would be appropriate. Little previous research has been directed toward roads that carry very low traffic volumes. Consequently, the factual input for this research was developed by conducting an inventory of the signs and markings actually in use on 2,069 miles of rural road in Iowa. Most of these roads carried 15 or fewer vehicles per day. Additional input was provided by a survey of the opinions of County Engineers and Supervisors in Iowa. Data from both the inventory and the opinion survey indicated a considerable lack of uniformity in the application of signs on very low volume rural roads. The number of warning signs installed varied from 0.24 per mile to 3.85 per mile in the 21 counties in which the inventory was carried out. The use of specific signs not only varied quite widely among counties but also indicated a lack of uniform application within counties. County officials generally favored varying the elaborateness of signing depending upon the type of surface and the volume of traffic on different roads. Less elaborate signing would be installed on an unpaved road than on a paved road. A concensus opinion was that roads carrying fewer than 25 vehicles per day should have fewer signs than roads carrying higher volumes. Although roads carrying 0 to 24 vehicles per day constituted over 24% of the total rural secondary system, they carried less than 3% of the total travel on that system. Virtually all of these roads are classified as area service roads and would thus be expected to carry only short trips primarily by local motorists. Consequently, it was concluded that the need for warning signs rarely can be demonstrated on unpaved rural roads with traffic volumes of fewer than 25 vehicles per day. It is recommended that each county designate a portion of its roads as an Area Service Level B system. All road segments with very low traffic volumes should be considered for inclusion in this system. Roads included in this system may receive a lesser level of maintenance and a reduced level of signing. The county is also afforded protection from liability arising from accidents occurring on roads designated as part of an Area Service Level B system. A uniform absence of warning signs on roads of this nature is not expected to have any discernible effect on the safety or quality of service on these very low volume roads. The resources conserved may be expended more effectively to upgrade maintenance and traffic control on roads carrying higher volumes where the beneficial effect on highway safety and service will be much more consequential.

Evaluation of Mitigation for Safety Concerns on Low-Volume, Unpaved Rural Roads, 2013.

The Institute for Transportation (InTrans) at Iowa State University completed work on an in-depth study of crash history on lowvolume, rural roads in Iowa in December 2010. Results indicated that unpaved roads with traffic volumes greater than 100 vehicles per day (vpd) exhibit significantly higher crash frequencies, rates, and densities than any other class of low-volume road examined, paved or unpaved. The total mileage for this class of roadway in Iowa is only about 4,400 miles, spread over 99 counties in the state, which is certainly a manageable number of miles for individual rural agencies. The purpose of this study was to identify and examine several unpaved, local road segments with higher than average crash frequencies, select and undertake potentially-beneficial mitigation, and evaluate the results as time allowed. A variety of low-cost options were considered, including engineering improvements, enhanced efforts by law enforcement, and educational initiatives. Using input, active support, and participation from local agencies and state and Federal safety advocates, the study afforded a unique opportunity to examine useful tools for local rural agencies to utilize in addressing safety on this particular type of roadway.

Evaluation of Mitigation for Safety Concerns on Low-Volume, Unpaved Rural Roads: Tech Transfer Summary, 2013.

The Institute for Transportation (InTrans) at Iowa State University completed work on an in-depth study of crash history on lowvolume, rural roads in Iowa in December 2010. Results indicated that unpaved roads with traffic volumes greater than 100 vehicles per day (vpd) exhibit significantly higher crash frequencies, rates, and densities than any other class of low-volume road examined, paved or unpaved. The total mileage for this class of roadway in Iowa is only about 4,400 miles, spread over 99 counties in the state, which is certainly a manageable number of miles for individual rural agencies. The purpose of this study was to identify and examine several unpaved, local road segments with higher than average crash frequencies, select and undertake potentially-beneficial mitigation, and evaluate the results as time allowed. A variety of low-cost options were considered, including engineering improvements, enhanced efforts by law enforcement, and educational initiatives. Using input, active support, and participation from local agencies and state and Federal safety advocates, the study afforded a unique opportunity to examine useful tools for local rural agencies to utilize in addressing safety on this particular type of roadway.

The Economics of Reducing the County Road System: Three Case Studies in Iowa, HR-242, 1986

This research project looked at the economic benefits and costs associated with alternative strategies for abandoning low volume rural highways and bridges. Three test counties in Iowa were studied, each 100 square miles in size: Hamilton County having a high agricultural tax base and a high percentage of paved roads and few bridges; Shelby County having a relatively low agricultural tax base, hilly terrain and a low percentage of paved road and many bridges; and Linn County having a high agricultural tax base, a high percentage of paved roads and a large number of non-farm households. A questionnaire survey was undertaken to develop estimates of farm and household travel patterns. Benefits and costs associated with the abandonment of various segments of rural highway and bridge mileages in each county were calculated. "Benefits" calculated were reduced future reconstruction and maintenance costs, whereas "costs" were the added cost of travel resulting from the reduced mileage. Some of the findings suggest limited cost savings from abandonment of county roads with no property access in areas with large non-farm rural population; relatively high cost savings from the abandonment of roads with no property access in areas with small rural population; and the largest savings from the conversion of public dead-end gravel roads with property or residence accesses to private drives.

Validation of Design Recommendations for Integral Abutment Piles, HR-292, 1989

Since integral abutment bridges decrease the initial and maintenance costs of bridges, they provide an attractive alternative for bridge designers. The objective of this project is to develop rational and experimentally verified design recommendations for these bridges. Field testing consisted of instrumenting two bridges in Iowa to monitor air and bridge temperatures, bridge displacements, and pile strains. Core samples were also collected to determine coefficients of thermal expansion for the two bridges. Design values for the coefficient of thermal expansion of concrete are recommended, as well as revised temperature ranges for the deck and girders of steel and concrete bridges. A girder extension model is developed to predict the longitudinal bridge displacements caused by changing bridge temperatures. Abutment rotations and passive soil pressures behind the abutment were neglected. The model is subdivided into segments that have uniform temperatures, coefficients of expansion, and moduli of elasticity. Weak axis pile strains were predicted using a fixed-head model. The pile is idealized as an equivalent cantilever with a length determined by the surrounding soil conditions and pile properties. Both the girder extension model and the fixed-head model are conservative for design purposes. A longitudinal frame model is developed to account for abutment rotations. The frame model better predicts both the longitudinal displacement and weak axis pile strains than do the simpler models. A lateral frame model is presented to predict the lateral motion of skewed bridges and the associated strong axis pile strains. Full passive soil pressure is assumed on the abutment face. Two alternatives for the pile design are presented. Alternative One is the more conservative and includes thermally induced stresses. Alternative Two neglects thermally induced stresses but allows for the partial formation of plastic hinges (inelastic redistribution of forces). Ductility criteria are presented for this alternative. Both alternatives are illustrated in a design example.