6 resultados para stochastic modeling
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.
Resumo:
This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.
Resumo:
The 2007 Iowa General Assembly, recognizing the increased demand for water to support the growth of industries and municipalities, approved funding for the first year of a multi-year evaluation and modeling of Iowa’s major aquifers by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The task of conducting this evaluation and modeling was assigned to the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS). The first aquifer to be studied was the Lower Dakota aquifer in a sixteen county area of northwest Iowa.
Resumo:
The work described in this report documents the activities performed for the evaluation, development, and enhancement of the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) pavement condition information as part of their pavement management system operation. The study covers all of the Iowa DOT’s interstate and primary National Highway System (NHS) and non-NHS system. A new pavement condition rating system that provides a consistent, unified approach in rating pavements in Iowa is being proposed. The proposed 100-scale system is based on five individual indices derived from specific distress data and pavement properties, and an overall pavement condition index, PCI-2, that combines individual indices using weighting factors. The different indices cover cracking, ride, rutting, faulting, and friction. The Cracking Index is formed by combining cracking data (transverse, longitudinal, wheel-path, and alligator cracking indices). Ride, rutting, and faulting indices utilize the International Roughness Index (IRI), rut depth, and fault height, respectively.
Resumo:
Hydrologic analysis is a critical part of transportation design because it helps ensure that hydraulic structures are able to accommodate the flow regimes they are likely to see. This analysis is currently conducted using computer simulations of water flow patterns, and continuing developments in elevation survey techniques result in higher and higher resolution surveys. Current survey techniques now resolve many natural and anthropogenic features that were not practical to map and, thus, require new methods for dealing with depressions and flow discontinuities. A method for depressional analysis is proposed that uses the fact that most anthropogenically constructed embankments are roughly more symmetrical with greater slopes than natural depressions. An enforcement method for draining depressions is then analyzed on those depressions that should be drained. This procedure has been evaluated on a small watershed in central Iowa, Walnut Creek of the South Skunk River, HUC12 # 070801050901, and was found to accurately identify 88 of 92 drained depressions and place enforcements within two pixels, although the method often tries to drain prairie pothole depressions that are bisected by anthropogenic features.
Resumo:
In work-zone configurations where lane drops are present, merging of traffic at the taper presents an operational concern. In addition, as flow through the work zone is reduced, the relative traffic safety of the work zone is also reduced. Improving work-zone flow-through merge points depends on the behavior of individual drivers. By better understanding driver behavior, traffic control plans, work zone policies, and countermeasures can be better targeted to reinforce desirable lane closure merging behavior, leading to both improved safety and work-zone capacity. The researchers collected data for two work-zone scenarios that included lane drops with one scenario on the Interstate and the other on an urban arterial roadway. The researchers then modeled and calibrated these scenarios in VISSIM using real-world speeds, travel times, queue lengths, and merging behaviors (percentage of vehicles merging upstream and near the merge point). Once built and calibrated, the researchers modeled strategies for various countermeasures in the two work zones. The models were then used to test and evaluate how various merging strategies affect safety and operations at the merge areas in these two work zones.