The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Welcoming New Iowans; A Guide for Christians and Churches, 2002

Immigrant and refugee newcomers have an important role in Iowa. These newcomers have revitalized many Iowa communities, workplaces and faith-based institutions. The arrival of immigrants and refugees poses challenges as well as rewards; understanding and addressing these issues is vital to welcoming and accommodating new Iowans and assuring their part in the long-term economic and social health of our state. This handbook represents a unique collaboration between the University of Northern Iowa (UNI) and Ecumenical Ministries of Iowa (EMI). The goal of this collaboration is to create a guidebook for Iowans to learn more about Iowa’s growing immigrant and refugee population and discover ways to welcome these newcomers and accommodate them in our communities and churches. The unique nature of this joint publication between a public university and Christian churches acknowledges that both institutions have a stake in accommodating immigrants in Iowa. UNI and all institutions of higher education need to support population growth to assure future enrollments. Churches and many other community institutions need immigrants and other newcomers to help maintain their viability. Universities and churches also need healthy local economies. Newcomers can provide much needed skills and labor to make this happen. In short, His collaboration recognizes that making immigration in Iowa work has important long-term implications for us all. This book was written and compiled by two university faculty members, but it is not an official university endorsement of Christianity as the only religion practiced and accepted by Iowans, and no university funds were used to print or distribute this handbook. This handbook is written for Iowa’s Christian community and is based on the Biblical mandate to welcome newcomers, but we acknowledge Iowa’s other religious groups and their role in accommodating newcomers as well. We readily acknowledge that other faith-based organizations also welcome newcomers and have a stake in making immigration a positive experience. In order to accommodate the perspectives and needs of these groups, the UNI New Iowans Program is planning to develop similar handbooks for Iowa’s Jewish and Muslim communities. This handbook includes a number of resource lists for individuals, newcomers, churches and others. Of course, as soon as these lists are printed, they may become out-of-date. In order to obtain the most up-to-date information, please visit the UNI New Iowans Web site: www.bcs.uni.edu/idm/newiowans/ The UNI New Iowans website also makes this handbook available in a PDF format.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.