Impact of Ownership Structure on the Performance of China’s Feed Mill Sector, April 2005

In the decade of the 1990s, China’s feed sector became increasingly privatized, more feed mills opened, and the scale of operation expanded. Capacity utilization remained low and multi-ministerial supervision was still prevalent, but the feed mill sector showed a positive performance overall, posting a growth rate of 11 percent per year. Profit margin over sales was within allowable rates set by the government of China at 3 to 5 percent. Financial efficiency improved, with a 20 percent quicker turnover of working capital. Average technical efficiency was 0.805, as more efficient feed mills increasingly gained production shares. This study finds evidence that the increasing privatization explains the improved performance of the commercial feed mill sector. The drivers that shaped the feed mill sector in the 1990s have changed with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. With the new policy regime in place, the study foresees that, assuming an adequate supply of soy meal and an excess capacity in the feed mill sector, it is likely that China will allow corn imports up to the tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 mmt since the in-quota rate is very low at 1 percent. However, when the TRQ is exceeded, the import duty jumps to a prohibitive out-quota rate of 65 percent. With an import duty for meat of only 10 to 12 percent, China would have a strong incentive to import meat products directly rather than bringing in expensive corn to produce meat domestically. This would be further reinforced if structural transformation in the swine sector would narrow the cost differential between domestic and imported pork.

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan, August 2005

We explore and investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural, and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We next describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The analysis of the regulatory system of the dairy sector shows how its incentive structure affects the long-term prospects of various segments of the industry. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets, September 2005

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non-OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non-OECD countries.

Tariff Equivalent of Technical Barriers to Trade with Imperfect Substitution and Trade Costs, November 2005

The price-wedge method yields a tariff-equivalent estimate of technical barriers to trade (TBT). An extension of this method accounts for imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods and incorporates recent findings on trade costs. We explore the sensitivity of this revamped TBT estimate to its key determinants (substitution elasticity, preference for home good, and trade cost). We use the augmented approach to investigate the ongoing US-Japan apple trade dispute and find that removing the Japanese TBT would yield limited export gains to the United States. We then draw policy implications of our findings.

Economies of Feedlot Scale, Biosecurity, Investment, and Endemic Livestock Disease, September 2006

Infectious livestock disease creates externalities for proximate animal production enterprises. The distribution of production scale within a region should influence and be influenced by these disease externalities. Taking the distribution of the unit costs of stocking an animal as primitive, we show that an increase in the variance of these unit costs reduces consumer surplus. The effect on producer surplus, total surplus, and animal concentration across feedlots depends on the demand elasticity. A subsidy to smaller herds can reduce social welfare and immiserize the farm sector by increasing the extent of disease. While Nash behavior involves excessive stocking, disease effects can be such that aggregate output declines relative to first-best. Disease externalities can induce more adoption of a cost-reducing technology by larger herds so that animals become more concentrated across herds. For strategic reasons, excess overall adoption of the innovation may occur. Larger herds are also more likely to adopt biosecurity innovations, explaining why larger herds may be less diseased in equilibrium.

Thermoset Composite Concrete Reinforcement, HR-325, Part 1, 1992

The feasibility of substituting fibercomposite (FC) (thermoset) pavement dowels for steel pavement dowels was investigated in this research project. Load transfer capacity, flexural capacity, and material properties were examined. The objectives of Part 1 of this final report included the shear behavior and strength deformations of FC dowel bars without aging. Part 2 will contain the aging effects. This model included the effects of modulus of elasticity for the pavement dowel and concrete, dowel diameter, subgrade stiffness, and concrete compressive strength. An experimental investigation was carried out to establish the modulus of dowel support which is an important parameter for the analysis of dowels. The experimental investigation included measured deflections, observed behavioral characteristics, and failure mode observations. An extensive study was performed on various shear testing procedures. A modified Iosipescu shear method was selected for the test procedure. Also, a special test frame was designed and fabricated for this procedure. The experimental values of modulus of support for shear and FC dowels were used for arriving at the critical stresses and deflections for the theoretical model developed. Different theoretical methods based on analyses suggested by Timoshenko, Friberg, Bradbury, and Westergaard were studied and a comprehensive theoretical model was developed. The fibercomposite dowels were found to provide strengths and behavioral characteristics that appear promising as a potential substitute for steel dowels.

Validation of Design Recommendations for Integral Abutment Piles, HR-292, 1989

Since integral abutment bridges decrease the initial and maintenance costs of bridges, they provide an attractive alternative for bridge designers. The objective of this project is to develop rational and experimentally verified design recommendations for these bridges. Field testing consisted of instrumenting two bridges in Iowa to monitor air and bridge temperatures, bridge displacements, and pile strains. Core samples were also collected to determine coefficients of thermal expansion for the two bridges. Design values for the coefficient of thermal expansion of concrete are recommended, as well as revised temperature ranges for the deck and girders of steel and concrete bridges. A girder extension model is developed to predict the longitudinal bridge displacements caused by changing bridge temperatures. Abutment rotations and passive soil pressures behind the abutment were neglected. The model is subdivided into segments that have uniform temperatures, coefficients of expansion, and moduli of elasticity. Weak axis pile strains were predicted using a fixed-head model. The pile is idealized as an equivalent cantilever with a length determined by the surrounding soil conditions and pile properties. Both the girder extension model and the fixed-head model are conservative for design purposes. A longitudinal frame model is developed to account for abutment rotations. The frame model better predicts both the longitudinal displacement and weak axis pile strains than do the simpler models. A lateral frame model is presented to predict the lateral motion of skewed bridges and the associated strong axis pile strains. Full passive soil pressure is assumed on the abutment face. Two alternatives for the pile design are presented. Alternative One is the more conservative and includes thermally induced stresses. Alternative Two neglects thermally induced stresses but allows for the partial formation of plastic hinges (inelastic redistribution of forces). Ductility criteria are presented for this alternative. Both alternatives are illustrated in a design example.

Thermoset Composite Concrete Reinforcement, HR-325, Part 2, 1992

This is the second part of the final report submitted to the Iowa Department of Transportation. Part 1 contained a comparison of unaged fiber composite and steel dowels and derivation of the appropriate theoretical model for analyzing the results. Part 2 of this final report covers the theoretical and experimental models for accelerated aging of fiber composite reinforcing bars and dowels cast in a concrete environment. Part 2 contains results from testing of unaged and aged fiber composite dowels and steel dowels, in addition to unaged and aged fiber composite reinforcing bars. Additional tests have been performed on unaged dowels (both steel and fibercomposite) to verify results from Part 1 and to keep the testing program consistent. Slight modifications have been made to the dowel specimens presented in Part 1. These modifications are noted in the Section 3.4 of this report. The flexural modulus of elasticity for the FC dowel bar given in Part 1 of the final report (Table 3. 2) was for the incorrect structural shape (non-circular cross section). The value is corrected and given in Part 2 of the final report (Table 3.4 for the.modulus of elasticity supplied by the manufacturer, and Tables 3. 5 and 3. 6 for experimentally determined modulus of elasticities) • The value in Part 1 was not used for any analysis of the FC dowel bars.

Performance Evaluation of Concrete Pavement Granular Subbase - Pavement Surface Condition Evaluation, TR-554, 2008

This research project covered a wide range of activities that allowed researchers to understand the relationship between stability, pavement distress, and recycled portland cement concrete (RPCC) subbase aggregate materials. Detailed laboratory and field tests, including pavement distress surveys, were conducted at 26 sites in Iowa. Findings show that specific gravities of RPCC are lower than those of crushed limestone. RPCC aggregate material varies from poorly or well-graded sand to gravel. A modified Micro-Deval test procedure showed that abrasion losses of virgin aggregate materials were within the maximum Micro-Deval abrasion loss of 30% recommended by ASTM D6028-06. Micro-Deval abrasion loss of RPCC aggregate materials, however, was much higher than that of virgin materials and exceeded 30% loss. Modulus of elasticity of RPCC subbase materials is high but variable. RPCC subbase layers normally have low permeability. The pavement surfaces for both virgin and RPCC subbase across Iowa were evaluated to fulfill the objectives of this study related to field evaluation. Visual distress surveys were conducted to gather the detailed current pavement condition information including the type, extent, and severity of the pavement distresses. The historical pavement condition information for the surveyed field sections was extracted from the Iowa DOT's Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). The current surface condition of existing field pavements with RPCC subbase was compared with the virgin aggregate subbase sections using two different approaches. The changes in pavement condition indices (PCI and IRI) with time for both types of pavements (subbases) were compared.