20 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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Public Works is pleased to present the following Iowa Efficiency Review Report to Governor Chet Culver and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. This report is the product of a collaboration between our consulting team and very dedicated Iowa state employees who worked with us to share ideas and cost‐saving proposals under very difficult circumstances caused by the national financial crisis that is affecting state budgets throughout the country. For example, during the course of this review, Iowa departments were also asked to develop across‐the‐board cuts to achieve immediate reductions in state spending. It is a credit to Iowa state government that departmental staff continued to work on this Efficiency Review Report despite these challenges of also having to develop across‐the‐board budget cuts to achieve a balanced budget. We hope that these ideas will set the stage for further future budget improvements from achieving efficiencies, eliminating outdated practices, increasing the use of information technology solutions and finding new sources of non‐tax funding. The Efficiency Review Team faced a second challenge. Statewide Efficiency Reviews usually take from nine to 12 months to complete. In Iowa, we worked with dedicated department staff to complete our work in less than 4 months. The Governor challenged all of us to work intensely and to give him our best thinking on efficiency proposals so that he could act as quickly as possible to position state government for success over the next several years.

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The purpose of this project was to determine the feasibility of using pavement condition data collected for the Iowa Pavement Management Program (IPMP) as input to the Iowa Quadrennial Need Study. The need study, conducted by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) every four years, currently uses manually collected highway infrastructure condition data (roughness, rutting, cracking, etc.). Because of the Iowa DOT's 10-year data collection cycles, condition data for a given highway segment may be up to 10 years old. In some cases, the need study process has resulted in wide fluctuations in funding allocated to individual Iowa counties from one study to the next. This volatility in funding levels makes it difficult for county engineers to plan and program road maintenance and improvements. One possible remedy is to input more current and less subjective infrastructure condition data. The IPMP was initially developed to satisfy the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) requirement that federal-aid-eligible highways be managed through a pavement management system. Currently all metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in Iowa and 15 of Iowa's 18 RPAs participate in the IPMP. The core of this program is a statewide data base of pavement condition and construction history information. The pavement data are collected by machine in two-year cycles. Using pilot areas, researchers examined the implications of using the automated data collected for the IPMP as input to the need study computer program, HWYNEEDS. The results show that using the IPMP automated data in HWYNEEDS is feasible and beneficial, resulting in less volatility in the level of total need between successive quadrennial need studies. In other words, the more current the data, the smaller the shift in total need.

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A dynamic, three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a freemarket policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes made when FAIR was enacted did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the Pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.

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We investigate the interface between trade and invasive species (IS) risk, focusing on the existing tariff escalation in agro-forestry product markets and its implication for IS risk. Tariff escalation in processed agro-forestry products exacerbates the risk of IS by biasing trade flows toward increased trade of primary commodity flows and against processed-product trade. We show that reducing tariff escalation by lowering the tariff on processed goods increases allocative efficiency and reduces the IS externality, a win-win situation. We also identify policy menus for trade reforms involving tariffs on both raw input and processed goods, leading to winwin situations.

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The Office of Energy Independence presents Iowa’s second annual energy independence plan, which highlights accomplishments achieved thus far and makes recommendations for the coming year. This plan shows that Iowa has made significant progress in building the foundation for reaching energy independence in just the past year. Continued investment and further efforts will enable Iowa to push toward even greater advances, while creating new jobs and diversifying local economies. With those aims in mind, the state has been investing extensively in the new energy economy. One important example is the Iowa Power Fund, an annual appropriation from the Iowa General Assembly administered by the Office of Energy Independence. In less than one year, the Office has received more than 160 project applications totaling more than $308 million in requests. The projects approved thus far will help advance Iowa’s wind and solar industries, foster new energy efficiency practices, and develop the bio fuels industry for a more economically and environmentally sustainable future. Iowa’s position as a leader in the new energy economy is dependent on the success of the Power Fund, and on the success of this plan. This plan clearly states that Iowa must boldly pursue a strong position in the emerging energy economy worldwide.

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The Legislative Council created the Energy Efficiency Plans and Programs Study Committee for the 2008 Legislative Interim pursuant to the passage of S.F. 2386 during the 2008 Legislative Session, which provided, in Section 8: The Legislative Council is requested to establish an interim study committee to examine the existence and effectiveness of energy efficiency plans and programs implemented by gas and electric public utilities, with an emphasis on results achieved by current plans and programs from the demand, or customer, perspective, and to make recommendations for additional requirements applicable to energy efficiency plans and programs that would improve such results. In conducting the study and developing recommendations, the Committee shall consider testimony from the Iowa Utilities Board, rate and nonrate-regulated gas and electric utilities, the Consumer Advocate, state agencies involved with energy efficiency program administration, environmental groups and associations, and consumers.

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This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

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In the November 2011 report issued by the Governor’s Transportation 2020 Citizen Advisory Commission (CAC), the commission recommended the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT), at least annually, convene meetings with the cities and counties to review the operation, maintenance and improvement of Iowa’s public roadway system to identify ways to jointly increase efficiency. In response to this recommendation, Gov. Branstad directed the Iowa DOT to begin this effort immediately with a target of identifying $50 million of efficiency savings that can be captured from the $1.2 billion of Road Use Tax Funds (RUTF) provided to the Iowa DOT, cities and counties to administer, maintain and improve the public roadway system. This would build upon past joint and individual actions that have reduced administrative costs and resulted in increased funding for system improvements. Efficiency actions should be quantified, measured and reported to the public on a regular basis. Beyond the discussion of identifying funding solutions to our road and bridge needs, it is critical that all jurisdictions that own, maintain and improve the nation’s road and bridge systems demonstrate to the public these funds are utilized in the most efficient and effective manner. This requires continual innovation in all aspects of transportation planning, design, construction and maintenance - done in a transparent manner to clearly demonstrate to the public how their funds are being utilized. The Iowa DOT has identified 13 efficiency measures separated into two distinct categories – Program Efficiencies and Partnership Efficiencies. The total value of the efficiency measures is $50 million. Many of the efficiency items will need input, refinement and partnership from cities, counties, other local jurisdictions, and stakeholder interest groups. The Iowa DOT has begun meetings with many of these groups to help identify potential efficiency measures and strategies for moving forward. These partnerships and discussions will continue through implementation of the efficiency measures. Dependent on the measures identified, additional action may be required by the legislature, Iowa Transportation Commission, and/or other bodies to implement the action. In addition, a formal process will be developed to quantify, measure and report the results of actions taken on a regular basis.

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The Iowa Sex Offender Research Council recently released a report to the Iowa General Assembly focusing on sex offender registration and the special sentence for sex offenders. Regarding the latter, the Council (staffed by the state’s Division of Criminal & Juvenile Justice Planning) projected a steady increase in community-based corrections’ special sentence caseloads from 619 offenders in 2011 to 2,651 offenders in 2021:

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The quadrennial need study was developed to assist in identifying county highway financial needs (construction, rehabilitation, maintenance, and administration) and in the distribution of the road use tax fund (RUTF) among the counties in the state. During the period since the need study was first conducted using HWYNEEDS software, between 1982 and 1998, there have been large fluctuations in the level of funds distributed to individual counties. A recent study performed by Jim Cable (HR-363, 1993), found that one of the major factors affecting the volatility in the level of fluctuations is the quality of the pavement condition data collected and the accuracy of these data. In 1998, the Center for Transportation Research and Education researchers (Maze and Smadi) completed a project to study the feasibility of using automated pavement condition data collected for the Iowa Pavement Management Program (IPMP) for the paved county roads to be used in the HWYNEEDS software (TR-418). The automated condition data are objective and also more current since they are collected in a two year cycle compared to the 10-year cycle used by HWYNEEDS right now. The study proved the use of the automated condition data in HWYNEEDS would be feasible and beneficial in educing fluctuations when applied to a pilot study area. In another recommendation from TR-418, the researchers recommended a full analysis and investigation of HWYNEEDS methodology and parameters (for more information on the project, please review the TR-418 project report). The study reported in this document builds on the previous study on using the automated condition data in HWYNEEDS and covers the analysis and investigation of the HWYNEEDS computer program methodology and parameters. The underlying hypothesis for this study is thatalong with the IPMP automated condition data, some changes need to be made to HWYNEEDS parameters to accommodate the use of the new data, which will stabilize the process of allocating resources and reduce fluctuations from one quadrennial need study to another. Another objective of this research is to investigate the gravel roads needs and study the feasibility of developing a more objective approach to determining needs on the counties gravel road network. This study identifies new procedures by which the HWYNEEDS computer program is used to conduct the quadrennial needs study on paved roads. Also, a new procedure will be developed to determine gravel roads needs outside of the HWYNEED program. Recommendations are identified for the new procedures and also in terms of making changes to the current quadrennial need study. Future research areas are also identified.

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This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

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Develop, in conjunction with the regional planning affiliations and metropolitan planning organizations and other stakeholder groups, a process to exchange STP federal funds for Primary Highway System funds for the purpose of reducing the number of small projects that have to meet onerous federal requirements. In order to implement this recommendation, legislative action is required to eliminate the restriction on using Primary Road Fund revenue on local jurisdiction roadways in exchange for a portion of their federal STP funding. This past session, Iowa DOT worked with legislators to introduce a bill in both the House and the Senate to eliminate this Code restriction. Bills were discussed at the subcommittee level in both the House and Senate but did not proceed because of the need to have further discussions with impacted parties. Prior to next session, discussions will occur amongst all impacted parties to reach consensus on how this recommendation could be implemented. With that consensus in place prior to next session, it is anticipated that the bills can be reintroduced next session.

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Senate File 2314, 84th General Assembly, states the Iowa Department of Transportation shall submit quarterly reports regarding the implementation of efficiency measures identified in the “Road Use Tax Fund Efficiency Report,” January 2012. This report shall provide details of activities undertaken in the previous quarter relating to one-time and long-term program efficiencies and partnership efficiencies. Issues covered include savings realized from the implementation of particular efficiency measures; updates concerning measures that have not been implemented; efforts involving cities, counties, other jurisdictions, or stakeholder interest groups; any new efficiency measures identified or undertaken; and identification of any legislative action that may be required to achieve efficiencies.

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Senate File 2314, 84th General Assembly, states the Iowa Department of Transportation shall submit quarterly reports regarding the implementation of efficiency measures identified in the "Road Use Tax Fund Efficiency Report," January 2012. This report shall provide details of activities undertaken in the previous quarter relating to one-time and long-term program efficiencies and partnership efficiencies. Issues covered include savings realized from the implementation of particular efficiency measures; updates concerning measures that have not been implemented; efforts involving cities, counties, other jurisdictions, or stakeholder interest groups; any new efficiency measures identified or undertaken; and identification of any legislative action that may be required to achieve efficiencies.

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Senate File 2314, 84th General Assembly, states the Iowa Department of Transportation shall submit quarterly reports regarding the implementation of efficiency measures identified in the "Road Use Tax Fund Efficiency Report," January 2012. This report shall provide details of activities undertaken in the previous quarter relating to one-time and long-term program efficiencies and partnership efficiencies. Issues covered include savings realized from the implementation of particular efficiency measures; updates concerning measures that have not been implemented; efforts involving cities, counties, other jurisdictions, or stakeholder interest groups; any new efficiency measures identified or undertaken; and identification of any legislative action that may be required to achieve efficiencies.