35 resultados para forecasting methods

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes are important in a number of transportation applications. Estimates of truck volumes are necessary for pavement design and pavement management. Truck volumes are important in traffic safety. The number of trucks on the road also influences roadway capacity and traffic operations. Additionally, heavy vehicles pollute at higher rates than passenger vehicles. Consequently, reliable estimates of heavy-truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are important in creating accurate inventories of on-road emissions. This research evaluated three different methods to calculate heavy-truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) which can subsequently be used to estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa DOT were used to estimate AADT for two different truck groups (single-unit and multi-unit) using the three methods. The first method developed monthly and daily expansion factors for each truck group. The second and third methods created general expansion factors for all vehicles. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. In n-fold cross-validation, data are split into n partitions, and data from the nth partition are used to validate the remaining data. A comparison of the accuracy of the three methods was made using the estimates of prediction error obtained from cross-validation. The prediction error was determined by averaging the squared error between the estimated AADT and the actual AADT. Overall, the prediction error was the lowest for the method that developed expansion factors separately for the different truck groups for both single- and multi-unit trucks. This indicates that use of expansion factors specific to heavy trucks results in better estimates of AADT, and, subsequently, VMT, than using aggregate expansion factors and applying a percentage of trucks. Monthly, daily, and weekly traffic patterns were also evaluated. Significant variation exists in the temporal and seasonal patterns of heavy trucks as compared to passenger vehicles. This suggests that the use of aggregate expansion factors fails to adequately describe truck travel patterns.

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The State of Iowa currently has approximately 69,000 miles of unpaved secondary roads. Due to the low traffic count on these unpaved o nts as ng e two dust ed d roads, paving with asphalt or Portland cement concrete is not economical. Therefore to reduce dust production, the use of dust suppressants has been utilized for decades. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of several widely used dust suppressants through quantitative field testing on two of Iowa’s most widely used secondary road surface treatments: crushed limestone rock and alluvial sand/gravel. These commercially available dust suppressants included: lignin sulfonate, calcium chloride, and soybean oil soapstock. These suppressants were applied to 1000 ft test sections on four unpaved roads in Story County, Iowa. Tduplicate field conditions, the suppressants were applied as a surface spray once in early June and again in late August or early September. The four unpaved roads included two with crushed limestone rock and two with alluvial sand/gravel surface treatmewell as high and low traffic counts. The effectiveness of the dust suppressants was evaluated by comparing the dust produced on treated and untreated test sections. Dust collection was scheduled for 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after each application, for a total testiperiod of 16 weeks. Results of a cost analysis between annual dust suppressant application and biennial aggregate replacement indicated that the cost of the dust suppressant, its transportation, and application were relatively high when compared to that of thaggregate types. Therefore, the biennial aggregate replacement is considered more economical than annual dust suppressant application, although the application of annual dust suppressant reduced the cost of road maintenance by 75 %. Results of thecollection indicated that the lignin sulfonate suppressant outperformed calcium chloride and soybean oil soapstock on all four unpavroads, the effect of the suppressants on the alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment was less than that on the crushed limestone rock, the residual effects of all the products seem reasonably well after blading, and the combination of alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment anhigh traffic count caused dust reduction to decrease dramatically.

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The purpose of this research was to summarize existing nondestructive test methods that have the potential to be used to detect materials-related distress (MRD) in concrete pavements. The various nondestructive test methods were then subjected to selection criteria that helped to reduce the size of the list so that specific techniques could be investigated in more detail. The main test methods that were determined to be applicable to this study included two stress-wave propagation techniques (impact-echo and spectral analysis of surface waves techniques), infrared thermography, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and visual inspection. The GPR technique was selected for a preliminary round of “proof of concept” trials. GPR surveys were carried out over a variety of portland cement concrete pavements for this study using two different systems. One of the systems was a state-of-the-art GPR system that allowed data to be collected at highway speeds. The other system was a less sophisticated system that was commercially available. Surveys conducted with both sets of equipment have produced test results capable of identifying subsurface distress in two of the three sites that exhibited internal cracking due to MRD. Both systems failed to detect distress in a single pavement that exhibited extensive cracking. Both systems correctly indicated that the control pavement exhibited negligible evidence of distress. The initial positive results presented here indicate that a more thorough study (incorporating refinements to the system, data collection, and analysis) is needed. Improvements in the results will be dependent upon defining the optimum number and arrangement of GPR antennas to detect the most common problems in Iowa pavements. In addition, refining highfrequency antenna response characteristics will be a crucial step toward providing an optimum GPR system for detecting materialsrelated distress.

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Deterioration in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements can occur due to distresses caused by a combination of traffic loads and weather conditions. Hot mix asphalt (HMA) overlay is the most commonly used rehabilitation technique for such deteriorated PCC pavements. However, the performance of these HMA overlaid pavements is hindered due to the occurrence of reflective cracking, resulting in significant reduction of pavement serviceability. Various fractured slab techniques, including rubblization, crack and seat, and break and seat are used to minimize reflective cracking by reducing the slab action. However, the design of structural overlay thickness for cracked and seated and rubblized pavements is difficult as the resulting structure is neither a “true” rigid pavement nor a “true” flexible pavement. Existing design methodologies use the empirical procedures based on the AASHO Road Test conducted in 1961. But, the AASHO Road Test did not employ any fractured slab technique, and there are numerous limitations associated with extrapolating its results to HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. The main objective of this project is to develop a mechanistic-empirical (ME) design approach for the HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. In this design procedure, failure criteria such as the tensile strain at the bottom of HMA layer and the vertical compressive strain on the surface of subgrade are used to consider HMA fatigue and subgrade rutting, respectively. The developed ME design system is also implemented in a Visual Basic computer program. A partial validation of the design method with reference to an instrumented trial project (IA-141, Polk County) in Iowa is provided in this report. Tensile strain values at the bottom of the HMA layer collected from the FWD testing at this project site are in agreement with the results obtained from the developed computer program.

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The members of the Iowa Concrete Paving Association, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center Research Committee, and the Iowa Highway Research Board commissioned a study to examine alternative ways of developing transverse joints in portland cement concrete pavements. The present study investigated six separate variations of vertical metal strips placed above and below the dowels in conventional baskets. In addition, the study investigated existing patented assemblies and a new assembly developed in Spain and used in Australia. The metal assemblies were placed in a new pavement and allowed to stay in place for 30 days before the Iowa Department of Transportation staff terminated the test by directing the contractor to saw and seal the joints. This report describes the design, construction, testing, and conclusions of the project.

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Highway noise is one of the most pressing of the surface characteristics issues facing the concrete paving industry. This is particularly true in urban areas, where not only is there a higher population density near major thoroughfares, but also a greater volume of commuter traffic (Sandberg and Ejsmont 2002; van Keulen 2004). To help address this issue, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center (CP Tech Center) at Iowa State University (ISU), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), American Concrete Pavement Association (ACPA), and other organizations have partnered to conduct a multi-part, seven-year Concrete Pavement Surface Characteristics Project. This document contains the results of Part 1, Task 2, of the ISU-FHWA project, addressing the noise issue by evaluating conventional and innovative concrete pavement noise reduction methods. The first objective of this task was to determine what if any concrete surface textures currently constructed in the United States or Europe were considered quiet, had long-term friction characteristics, could be consistently built, and were cost effective. Any specifications of such concrete textures would be included in this report. The second objective was to determine whether any promising new concrete pavement surfaces to control tire-pavement noise and friction were in the development stage and, if so, what further research was necessary. The final objective was to identify measurement techniques used in the evaluation.

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Various test methods exist for measuring heat of cement hydration; however, most current methods require expensive equipment, complex testing procedures, and/or extensive time, thus not being suitable for field application. The objectives of this research are to identify, develop, and evaluate a standard test procedure for characterization and quality control of pavement concrete mixtures using a calorimetry technique. This research project has three phases. Phase I was designed to identify the user needs, including performance requirements and precision and bias limits, and to synthesize existing test methods for monitoring the heat of hydration, including device types, configurations, test procedures, measurements, advantages, disadvantages, applications, and accuracy. Phase II was designed to conduct experimental work to evaluate the calorimetry equipment recommended from the Phase I study and to develop a standard test procedure for using the equipment and interpreting the test results. Phase II also includes the development of models and computer programs for prediction of concrete pavement performance based on the characteristics of heat evolution curves. Phase III was designed to study for further development of a much simpler, inexpensive calorimeter for field concrete. In this report, the results from the Phase I study are presented, the plan for the Phase II study is described, and the recommendations for Phase III study are outlined. Phase I has been completed through three major activities: (1) collecting input and advice from the members of the project Technical Working Group (TWG), (2) conducting a literature survey, and (3) performing trials at the CP Tech Center’s research lab. The research results indicate that in addition to predicting maturity/strength, concrete heat evolution test results can also be used for (1) forecasting concrete setting time, (2) specifying curing period, (3) estimating risk of thermal cracking, (4) assessing pavement sawing/finishing time, (5) characterizing cement features, (6) identifying incompatibility of cementitious materials, (7) verifying concrete mix proportions, and (8) selecting materials and/or mix designs for given environmental conditions. Besides concrete materials and mix proportions, the configuration of the calorimeter device, sample size, mixing procedure, and testing environment (temperature) also have significant influences on features of concrete heat evolution process. The research team has found that although various calorimeter tests have been conducted for assorted purposes and the potential uses of calorimeter tests are clear, there is no consensus on how to utilize the heat evolution curves to characterize concrete materials and how to effectively relate the characteristics of heat evolution curves to concrete pavement performance. The goal of the Phase II study is to close these gaps.

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The historically-reactive approach to identifying safety problems and mitigating them involves selecting black spots or hot spots by ranking locations based on crash frequency and severity. The approach focuses mainly on the corridor level without taking the exposure rate (vehicle miles traveled) and socio-demographics information of the study area, which are very important in the transportation planning process, into consideration. A larger study analysis unit at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level or the network planning level should be used to address the needs of development of the community in the future and incorporate safety into the long-range transportation planning process. In this study, existing planning tools (such as the PLANSAFE models presented in NCHRP Report 546) were evaluated for forecasting safety in small and medium-sized communities, particularly as related to changes in socio-demographics characteristics, traffic demand, road network, and countermeasures. The research also evaluated the applicability of the Empirical Bayes (EB) method to network-level analysis. In addition, application of the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP) protocols at the local urban road network level was investigated. This research evaluated the applicability of these three methods for the City of Ames, Iowa. The outcome of this research is a systematic process and framework for considering road safety issues explicitly in the small and medium-sized community transportation planning process and for quantifying the safety impacts of new developments and policy programs. More specifically, quantitative safety may be incorporated into the planning process, through effective visualization and increased awareness of safety issues (usRAP), the identification of high-risk locations with potential for improvement, (usRAP maps and EB), countermeasures for high-risk locations (EB before and after study and PLANSAFE), and socio-economic and demographic induced changes at the planning-level (PLANSAFE).

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Debris accumulation on bridge piers is an on-going national problem that can obstruct the waterway openings at bridges and result in significant erosion of stream banks and scour at abutments and piers. In some cases, the accumulation of debris can adversely affect the operation of the waterway opening or cause failure of the structure. In addition, removal of debris accumulation is difficult, time consuming, and expensive for maintenance programs. This research involves a literature search of publications, products, and pier design recommendations that provide a cost effective method to mitigate debris accumulation at bridges. In addition, a nationwide survey was conducted to determine the state-of-the-practice and the results are presented within.

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Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

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Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

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With the use of supplementary cementing materials (SCMs) in concrete mixtures, salt scaling tests such as ASTM C672 have been found to be overly aggressive and do correlate well with field scaling performance. The reasons for this are thought to be because at high replacement levels, SCM mixtures can take longer to set and to develop their properties: neither of these factors is taken into account in the standard laboratory finishing and curing procedures. As a result, these variables were studied as well as a modified scaling test, based on the Quebec BNQ scaling test that had shown promise in other research. The experimental research focused on the evaluation of three scaling resistance tests, including the ASTM C672 test with normal curing as well as an accelerated curing regime used by VDOT for ASTM C1202 rapid chloride permeability tests and now included as an option in ASTM C1202. As well, several variations on the proposed draft ASTM WK9367 deicer scaling resistance test, based on the Quebec Ministry of Transportation BNQ test method, were evaluated for concretes containing varying amounts of slag cement. A total of 16 concrete mixtures were studied using both high alkali cement and low alkali cement, Grade 100 slag and Grade 120 slag with 0, 20, 35 and 50 percent slag replacement by mass of total cementing materials. Vinsol resin was used as the primary air entrainer and Micro Air® was used in two replicate mixes for comparison. Based on the results of this study, a draft alternative test method to ASTM C762 is proposed.

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The need for upgrading a large number of understrength and obsolete bridges in the United States has been well documented in the literature. Through the performance of several Iowa DOT projects, the concept of strengthening bridges (simple and continuous spans) by post-tensioning has been developed. The purpose of this project was to investigate two additional strengthening alternatives that may be more efficient than post-tensioning in certain situations. The research program for each strengthening scheme included a literature review, laboratory testing of the strengthening scheme, and a finite-element analysis of the scheme. For clarity the two strengthening schemes are presented separately. In Part 1 of this report, the strengthening of existing steel stringers in composite steel beam concrete-deck bridges by providing partial end restraint was shown to be feasible. Part 2 of this report summarizes the research that was undertaken to strengthen the negative moment regions of continuous, composite bridges. Two schemes were investigated: post-compression of stringers and superimposed trusses within the stringers.

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An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

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Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.