The Effects of Expanding Ethanol Markets On Ethanol Production Feed Markets And the Iowa Economy, June 30 2001

Report produced by Iowa Departmment of Agriculture and Land Stewardship

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, November 2006

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country’s vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Iowa Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants, January 2006

Maps of Iowa's Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants.

Ethanol Facility Regulatory Assistance Guide, May 19, 2008

This guide is a general outline for ethanol facilities on potential regulatory requirements and regulatory agency approval times. Much of the information is related to environmental permitting by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR). Your facility’s permit requirements may differ depending upon the specific operations planned. Information is also provided about regulatory requirements administered by the Iowa Workforce Development, Labor Services Division and the Iowa Department of Public Safety, Fire Marshal Division. Requirements established by local units of government may also apply. Be sure to contact the city in which the facility will be located or the county if the facility is not located in a city, to identify these requirements.

Iowa Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants, July 1, 2008

Iowa Grain Facilities Map

Iowa Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants, January 2010

Maps of Iowa's Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants.

Farm scale alcohol production : the Iowa State University ethanol distillery, 1981.

This publication was prepared to describe how the Iowa State University distillery has been operating, including information on distillery size, equipment, tanks, condenser, heat exchanger, pumps and the process. Photos and diagrams are also included.

Emission Control in Diesel Engines by Alcohol Fumigation, 1990

Exhaust emissions from diesel engines are a substantial source of air pollution in this country. In recognition of this fact, the Environmental Protection Agency has issued strict new regulations due to take effect -in 1991 and 1994 that will drastically reduce the amount of some pollutants these engines will be allowed to emit. The technology is not currently available to produce diesel engines that can meet these regulations without large penalties in engine performance and efficiency. One technique that offers promise of being able to reduce emissions from both existing engines and new engines is alcohol fumigation.

Report on the ethanol retailers’ tax credit program and the Research Activities Credit (RAC) tax credit program administered by the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the period January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2014

Report on the ethanol retailers’ tax credit program and the Research Activities Credit (RAC) tax credit program administered by the Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) for the period January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2014

E85 Retail Station Locations in Iowa

House File 2754, relating to renewable fuel and energy, was enacted on May 30, 2006. The Act established goals and incentives for the use of renewable fuel, including E85 gasoline (85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline). Section 33 of the Act states: Sec. 33. DEPARTMENTAL STUDY – E85 GASOLINE AVAILABILITY. The state department of transportation and the department of natural resources shall cooperate to conduct a study to provide methods to inform persons of the availability of E85 gasoline offered for sale and distribution by retail dealers of motor fuel in this state, including the location of each retail motor fuel site where a retail dealer offers E85 gasoline for sale and distribution. The department's study shall include methods for identifying those locations for the convenience of the traveling public including but not limited to the identification of those locations on roadside signs and on the official Iowa map published pursuant to section 307.14. The departments shall jointly prepare and deliver a report to the governor and general assembly, which includes findings and recommendations, not later than January 10, 2007.

Adoption Subsidies and Environmental Impacts of Alternative Energy Crops, March 2007

We provide estimates of the costs associated with inducing substantial conversion of land from production of traditional crops to switchgrass. Higher traditional crop prices due to increased demand for corn from the ethanol industry has increased the relative advantage that row crops have over switchgrass. Results indicate that farmers will convert to switchgrass production only with significant conversion subsidies. To examine potential environmental consequences of conversion, we investigate three stylized landscape usage scenarios, one with an entire conversion of a watershed to switchgrass production, a second with the entire watershed planted to continuous corn under a 50% removal rate of the biomass, and a third scenario that places switchgrass on the most erodible land in the watershed and places continuous corn on the least erodible. For each of these illustrative scenarios, the watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model (Arnold et al., 1998; Arnold and Forher, 2005) is used to evaluate the effect of these landscape uses on sediment and nutrient loadings in the Maquoketa Watershed in eastern Iowa.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program, 2007

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.