4 resultados para errors-in-variables model

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Naturalistic driving studies are the latest resource for gathering data associated with driver behavior. The University of Iowa has been studying teen driving using naturalistic methods since 2006. By instrumenting teen drivers’ vehicles with event-triggered video recorders (ETVR), we are able to record a 12-second video clip every time a vehicle exceeds a pre-set g-force threshold. Each of these video clips contains valuable data regarding the frequency and types of distractions present in vehicles driven by today’s young drivers. The 16-year old drivers who participated in the study had a distraction present in nearly half of the events that were captured. While a lot of attention has been given to the distractions associated with technology in the vehicle (cell phones, navigation devices, entertainment systems, etc.), the most frequent type of distraction coded was the presence of teen passengers engaging in conversation (45%). Cognitive distractions, such as singing along with the radio, were the second most common distraction. Cell phone use was the third most common distraction, detected in only 10% of the events containing distraction.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A laboratory investigation was undertaken to determine the limiting model Reynolds number above which the scour behavior of rock protected structures can be reproduced in hydraulic models scaled according to the Froude criterion. A submerged jet was passed over an initially full scour pocket containing uniform glass spheres and the rate of scour was measured as a function of time. The dimensions of the scour pocket and jet and the particle diameters were varied as needed to maintain strict geometric similarity. For each of two different Froude numbers the Reynolds number was varied over a wide range. The normalized scour rate was found to be practically independent of the Reynolds number, R, (based on the jet velocity and particle diameter) at values of R above about 2.5 x 10^3, and to decrease with Rat smaller values. A grid placed in the jet was found to have a very strong effect on the scour rate. In an attempt to explain the effect of R on the scour behavior, turbulent pressure and velocity fluctuations were measured in air flows and water flows, respectively, over rigid scour pockets having the same geometry as those formed in the scour experiments. The normalized spectra of the fluctuations were found to be nearly independent of R, but the flow pattern was found to be very sensitive to the inlet condition, the jet deflecting upward or downward in a not wholly explainable manner. This indicates that scour behavior can be modeled only if the approach flow is also accurately modeled.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Recent reports have indicated that 23.5% of the nation's highway bridges are structurally deficient and 17.7% are functionally obsolete. A significant number of these bridges are on the Iowa secondary road system where over 86% of the rural bridge management responsibilities are assigned to the counties. Some of the bridges can be strengthened or otherwise rehabilitated, but many more are in need of immediate replacement. In a recent investigation (HR-365 "Evaluation of Bridge Replacement Alternatives for the County Bridge System") several types of replacement bridges that are currently being used on low volume roads were identified. It was also determined that a large number of counties (69%) have the ability and are interested in utilizing their own forces to design and construct short span bridges. After reviewing the results from HR-365, the research team developed one "new" bridge replacement concept and a modification of a replacement system currently being used. Both of these bridge replacement alternatives were investigated in this study, the results of which are presented in two volumes. This volume (Volume 2) presents the results of Concept 2 - Modification of the Beam-in-Slab Bridge. Concept 1 - Steel Beam Precast Units is presented in Volume 1. Concept 2 involves various laboratory tests of the Beam-in-Slab bridge (BISB) currently being used by Benton County and several other Iowa counties. In this investigation, the behavior and strength of the BISB were determined; a new method of obtaining composite action between the steel beams and concrete was also tested. Since the Concept 2 bridge is primarily intended for use on low-volume roads, the system can be constructed with new or used beams. In the experimental part of the investigation, there were three types of laboratory tests: push-out tests, service and ultimate load tests of models of the BISB, and composite beam tests utilizing the newly developed shear connection. In addition to the laboratory tests, there was a field test in which an existing BISB was service load tested. An equation was developed for predicting the strength of the shear connection investigated; in addition, a finite element model for analyzing the BISB was also developed. Push-out tests were completed to determine the strength of the recently developed shear connector. A total of 36 specimens were tested, with variables such as hole diameter, hole spacing, presence of reinforcement, etc. being investigated. In the model tests of the BISB, two and four beam specimens [L=9,140 mm (30 ft)] were service load tested for behavior and load distribution data. Upon completion of these tests, both specimens were loaded to failure. In the composite beam tests, four beams, one with standard shear studs and three using the shear connection developed, were tested. Upon completion of the service load tests, all four beams were loaded to failure. The strength and behavior of the beams with the new shear connection were found to be essentially the same as that of the specimen with standard shear studs.