10 resultados para Variability Modeling

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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A dynamic, three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a freemarket policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes made when FAIR was enacted did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the Pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.

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This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

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This paper describes the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS). Climatic data from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gage station at the watershed outlet were used in the sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters as well as its calibration and validation for watershed hydrology and streamflow. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and base flow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters when applying SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model performance was evaluated by well-established statistical methods and was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic modeling analysis will facilitate future applications of SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analysis, including water quality.

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The 2007 Iowa General Assembly, recognizing the increased demand for water to support the growth of industries and municipalities, approved funding for the first year of a multi-year evaluation and modeling of Iowa’s major aquifers by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The task of conducting this evaluation and modeling was assigned to the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS). The first aquifer to be studied was the Lower Dakota aquifer in a sixteen county area of northwest Iowa.

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The main objective of this study was to evaluate the hydraulic performance of riprap spurs and weirs in controlling bank erosion at the Southern part of the Raccoon River upstream U.S. Highway 169 Bridge utilizing the commercially available model FESWMS and field monitoring. It was found based on a 2 year monitoring and numerical modeling that the design of structures was overall successful, including their spacing and stability. The riprap material incorporated into the structures was directly and favorably correlated to the flow transmission through the structure, or in other words, dictated the permeable nature of the structure. It was found that the permeable dikes and weirs chosen in this study created less volume of scour in the vicinity of the structure toes and thus have less risk comparatively to other impermeable structures to collapse. The fact that the structures permitted the transmission of flow through them it allowed fine sand particles to fill in the gaps of the rock interstices and thus cement and better stabilize the structures. During bank-full flows the maximum scour hole was recorded away from the structures toe and the scourhole size was directly related to the protrusion angle of the structure to the flow. It was concluded that the proposed structure inclination with respect to the main flow direction was appropriate since it provides maximum bank protection while creating the largest volume of local scour away from the structure and towards the center of the channel. Furthermore, the lowest potential for bank erosion also occurs with the present set-up design chosen by the IDOT. About 2 ft of new material was deposited in the area located between the structures for the period extending from the construction day to May 2007. Surveys obtained by sonar and the presence of vegetation indicate that new material has been added at the bank toes. Finally, the structures provided higher variability in bed topography forming resting pools, creating flow shade on the leeward side of the structure, and separation of bed substrate due to different flow conditions. Another notable environmental benefit to rock riprap weirs and dikes is the creation of resting pools, especially in year 2007 (2nd year of the project). The magnitude of these benefits to aquatic habitat has been found in the literature that is directly related to the induced scour-hole volume.

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The physical-chemical testing of fly ashes indicates that, under normal operating conditions, a low variability of results can be expected from a particular generating plant unit. However, unannounced changes in coal source and/or plant operations do occur and they may result in an ash with undesirable properties. Since these properties can be detected by physical-chemical testing, it is recommended that this testing be performed on a lot-by-lot basis when a plant is supplying fly ash to a construction project.

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The work described in this report documents the activities performed for the evaluation, development, and enhancement of the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) pavement condition information as part of their pavement management system operation. The study covers all of the Iowa DOT’s interstate and primary National Highway System (NHS) and non-NHS system. A new pavement condition rating system that provides a consistent, unified approach in rating pavements in Iowa is being proposed. The proposed 100-scale system is based on five individual indices derived from specific distress data and pavement properties, and an overall pavement condition index, PCI-2, that combines individual indices using weighting factors. The different indices cover cracking, ride, rutting, faulting, and friction. The Cracking Index is formed by combining cracking data (transverse, longitudinal, wheel-path, and alligator cracking indices). Ride, rutting, and faulting indices utilize the International Roughness Index (IRI), rut depth, and fault height, respectively.

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Hydrologic analysis is a critical part of transportation design because it helps ensure that hydraulic structures are able to accommodate the flow regimes they are likely to see. This analysis is currently conducted using computer simulations of water flow patterns, and continuing developments in elevation survey techniques result in higher and higher resolution surveys. Current survey techniques now resolve many natural and anthropogenic features that were not practical to map and, thus, require new methods for dealing with depressions and flow discontinuities. A method for depressional analysis is proposed that uses the fact that most anthropogenically constructed embankments are roughly more symmetrical with greater slopes than natural depressions. An enforcement method for draining depressions is then analyzed on those depressions that should be drained. This procedure has been evaluated on a small watershed in central Iowa, Walnut Creek of the South Skunk River, HUC12 # 070801050901, and was found to accurately identify 88 of 92 drained depressions and place enforcements within two pixels, although the method often tries to drain prairie pothole depressions that are bisected by anthropogenic features.

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In work-zone configurations where lane drops are present, merging of traffic at the taper presents an operational concern. In addition, as flow through the work zone is reduced, the relative traffic safety of the work zone is also reduced. Improving work-zone flow-through merge points depends on the behavior of individual drivers. By better understanding driver behavior, traffic control plans, work zone policies, and countermeasures can be better targeted to reinforce desirable lane closure merging behavior, leading to both improved safety and work-zone capacity. The researchers collected data for two work-zone scenarios that included lane drops with one scenario on the Interstate and the other on an urban arterial roadway. The researchers then modeled and calibrated these scenarios in VISSIM using real-world speeds, travel times, queue lengths, and merging behaviors (percentage of vehicles merging upstream and near the merge point). Once built and calibrated, the researchers modeled strategies for various countermeasures in the two work zones. The models were then used to test and evaluate how various merging strategies affect safety and operations at the merge areas in these two work zones.

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To provide insight into subgrade non-uniformity and its effects on pavement performance, this study investigated the influence of non-uniform subgrade support on pavement responses (stress and deflection) that affect pavement performance. Several reconstructed PCC pavement projects in Iowa were studied to document and evaluate the influence of subgrade/subbase non-uniformity on pavement performance. In situ field tests were performed at 12 sites to determine the subgrade/subbase engineering properties and develop a database of engineering parameter values for statistical and numerical analysis. Results of stiffness, moisture and density, strength, and soil classification were used to determine the spatial variability of a given property. Natural subgrade soils, fly ash-stabilized subgrade, reclaimed hydrated fly ash subbase, and granular subbase were studied. The influence of the spatial variability of subgrade/subbase on pavement performance was then evaluated by modeling the elastic properties of the pavement and subgrade using the ISLAB2000 finite element analysis program. A major conclusion from this study is that non-uniform subgrade/subbase stiffness increases localized deflections and causes principal stress concentrations in the pavement, which can lead to fatigue cracking and other types of pavement distresses. Field data show that hydrated fly ash, self-cementing fly ash-stabilized subgrade, and granular subbases exhibit lower variability than natural subgrade soils. Pavement life should be increased through the use of more uniform subgrade support. Subgrade/subbase construction in the future should consider uniformity as a key to long-term pavement performance.