6 resultados para VARIABLE LENGTH MARKOV CHAINS
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
Variable advisory speed limit (VASL) systems could be effective at both urban and rural work zones, at both uncongested and congested sites. At uncongested urban work zones, the average speeds with VASL were lower than without VASL. But the standard deviation of speeds with VASL was higher. The increase in standard deviation may be due to the advisory nature of VASL. The speed limit compliance with VASL was about eight times greater than without VASL. At the congested sites, the VASL were effective in making drivers slow down gradually as they approached the work zone, reducing any sudden changes in speeds. Mobility-wise the use of VASL resulted in a decrease in average queue length, throughput, number of stops, and an increase in travel time. Several surrogate safety measures also demonstrated the benefits of VASL in congested work zones. VASL deployments in rural work zones resulted in reductions in mean speed, speed variance, and 85th percentile speeds downstream of the VASL sign. The study makes the following recommendations based on the case studies investigated: 1. The use of VASL is recommended for uncongested work zones to achieve better speed compliance and lower speeds. Greater enforcement of regulatory speed limits could help to decrease the standard deviation in speeds; 2. The use of VASL to complement the static speed limits in rural work zones is beneficial even if the VASL is only used to display the static speed limits. It leads to safer traffic conditions by encouraging traffic to slow down gradually and by reminding traffic of the reduced speed limit. A well-designed VASL algorithm, like the P5 algorithm developed in this study, can significantly improve the mobility and safety conditions in congested work zones. The use of simulation is recommended for optimizing the VASL algorithms before field deployment.
Resumo:
In this day of the mature highway systems, a new set of problems is facing the highway engineer. The existing infrastructure has aged to or past the design life of the original pavement design. In many cases, increased commercial traffic is creating the need for additional load carrying capacity, causing state highway engineers to consider new alternatives for rehabilitation of existing surfaces. Alternative surface materials, thicknesses, and methods of installation must be identified to meet the needs of individual pavements and budgets. With overlays being one of the most frequently used rehabilitation alternatives, it is important to learn more about the limitations and potential performance of thin bonded portland cement overlays and subsequent rehabilitation. The Iowa ultra-thin project demonstrated the application of thin portland cement concrete overlays as a rehabilitation technique. It combined the variables of base preparation, overlay thickness, slab size, and fiber enhancement into a series of test sections over a 7.2-mile length. This report identifies the performance of the overlays in terms of deflection reduction, reduced cracking, and improved bonding between the portland cement concrete (PCC) and asphalt cement concrete (ACC) base layers. The original research project was designed to evaluate the variables over a 5-year period of time. A second project provided the opportunity to test overlay rehabilitation techniques and continue measurement of the original overlay performance for 5 additional years. All performance indicators identified exceptional performance over the 10-year evaluation period for each of the variable combinations considered. The report summarizes the research methods, results, and identifies future research ideas to aid the pavement overlay designer in the successful implementation of ultra-thin portland cement concrete overlays as an lternative pavement rehabilitation technique.
Resumo:
We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.
Resumo:
In reinforced concrete systems, ensuring that a good bond between the concrete and the embedded reinforcing steel is critical to long-term structural performance. Without good bond between the two, the system simply cannot behave as intended. The bond strength of reinforcing bars is a complex interaction between localized deformations, chemical adhesion, and other factors. Coating of reinforcing bars, although sometimes debated, has been commonly found to be an effective way to delay the initiation of corrosion in reinforced concrete systems. For many years, the standard practice has been to coat reinforcing steel with an epoxy coating, which provides a barrier between the steel and the corrosive elements of water, air, and chloride ions. Recently, there has been an industry-led effort to use galvanizing to provide the protective barrier commonly provided by traditional epoxy coatings. However, as with any new structural product, questions exist regarding both the structural performance and corrosion resistance of the system. In the fall of 2013, Buchanan County, Iowa constructed a demonstration bridge in which the steel girders and all internal reinforcing steel were galvanized. The work completed in this project sought to understand the structural performance of galvanized reinforcing steel as compared to epoxy-coated steel and to initiate a long-term corrosion monitoring program. This work consisted of a series of controlled laboratory tests and the installation of a corrosion monitoring system that can be observed for years in the future. The results of this work indicate there is no appreciable difference between the bond strength of epoxy-coated reinforcing steel and galvanized reinforcing steel. Although some differences were observed, no notable difference in either peak load, slip, or failure mode could be identified. Additionally, a long-term monitoring system was installed in this Buchanan County bridge and, to date, no corrosion activity has been identified.
Resumo:
Blowing and drifting of snow is a major concern for transportation efficiency and road safety in regions where their development is common. One common way to mitigate snow drift on roadways is to install plastic snow fences. Correct design of snow fences is critical for road safety and maintaining the roads open during winter in the US Midwest and other states affected by large snow events during the winter season and to maintain costs related to accumulation of snow on the roads and repair of roads to minimum levels. Of critical importance for road safety is the protection against snow drifting in regions with narrow rights of way, where standard fences cannot be deployed at the recommended distance from the road. Designing snow fences requires sound engineering judgment and a thorough evaluation of the potential for snow blowing and drifting at the construction site. The evaluation includes site-specific design parameters typically obtained with semi-empirical relations characterizing the local transport conditions. Among the critical parameters involved in fence design and assessment of their post-construction efficiency is the quantification of the snow accumulation at fence sites. The present study proposes a joint experimental and numerical approach to monitor snow deposits around snow fences, quantitatively estimate snow deposits in the field, asses the efficiency and improve the design of snow fences. Snow deposit profiles were mapped using GPS based real-time kinematic surveys (RTK) conducted at the monitored field site during and after snow storms. The monitored site allowed testing different snow fence designs under close to identical conditions over four winter seasons. The study also discusses the detailed monitoring system and analysis of weather forecast and meteorological conditions at the monitored sites. A main goal of the present study was to assess the performance of lightweight plastic snow fences with a lower porosity than the typical 50% porosity used in standard designs of such fences. The field data collected during the first winter was used to identify the best design for snow fences with a porosity of 50%. Flow fields obtained from numerical simulations showed that the fence design that worked the best during the first winter induced the formation of an elongated area of small velocity magnitude close to the ground. This information was used to identify other candidates for optimum design of fences with a lower porosity. Two of the designs with a fence porosity of 30% that were found to perform well based on results of numerical simulations were tested in the field during the second winter along with the best performing design for fences with a porosity of 50%. Field data showed that the length of the snow deposit away from the fence was reduced by about 30% for the two proposed lower-porosity (30%) fence designs compared to the best design identified for fences with a porosity of 50%. Moreover, one of the lower-porosity designs tested in the field showed no significant snow deposition within the bottom gap region beneath the fence. Thus, a major outcome of this study is to recommend using plastic snow fences with a porosity of 30%. It is expected that this lower-porosity design will continue to work well for even more severe snow events or for successive snow events occurring during the same winter. The approach advocated in the present study allowed making general recommendations for optimizing the design of lower-porosity plastic snow fences. This approach can be extended to improve the design of other types of snow fences. Some preliminary work for living snow fences is also discussed. Another major contribution of this study is to propose, develop protocols and test a novel technique based on close range photogrammetry (CRP) to quantify the snow deposits trapped snow fences. As image data can be acquired continuously, the time evolution of the volume of snow retained by a snow fence during a storm or during a whole winter season can, in principle, be obtained. Moreover, CRP is a non-intrusive method that eliminates the need to perform man-made measurements during the storms, which are difficult and sometimes dangerous to perform. Presently, there is lots of empiricism in the design of snow fences due to lack of data on fence storage capacity on how snow deposits change with the fence design and snow storm characteristics and in the estimation of the main parameters used by the state DOTs to design snow fences at a given site. The availability of such information from CRP measurements should provide critical data for the evaluation of the performance of a certain snow fence design that is tested by the IDOT. As part of the present study, the novel CRP method is tested at several sites. The present study also discusses some attempts and preliminary work to determine the snow relocation coefficient which is one of the main variables that has to be estimated by IDOT engineers when using the standard snow fence design software (Snow Drift Profiler, Tabler, 2006). Our analysis showed that standard empirical formulas did not produce reasonable values when applied at the Iowa test sites monitored as part of the present study and that simple methods to estimate this variable are not reliable. The present study makes recommendations for the development of a new methodology based on Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry that can directly measure the snow drift fluxes and the amount of snow relocated by the fence.
Resumo:
Portland cement concrete is an outstanding structural material but stresses and cracks often occur in large structures due to drying shrinkage. The objective of this research was to determine the change in length due to loss of moisture from placement through complete drying of portland cement concrete. The drying shrinkage was determined for four different combinations of Iowa DOT structural concrete mix proportions and materials. The two mix proportions used were an Iowa DOT D57 (bridge deck mix proportions) and a water reduced modified C4 mix. Three 4"x 4"x 18" beams were made for each mix. After moist curing for three days, all beams were maintained in laboratory dry air and the length and weight were measured at 73°F ± 3°F. The temperature was cycled on alternate days from 73°F to 90°F through four months. From four months through six months, the temperature was cycled one day at 73°F and six days at 130°F. It took approximately six months for the concrete to reach a dry condition with these temperatures. The total drying shrinkage for the four mixes varied from .0106 in. to .0133 in. with an average of .0120 in. The rate of shrinkage was approximately .014% shrinkage per 1% moisture loss for all four mixes. The rate and total shrinkage for all four mixes was very similar and did not seem to depend on the type of coarse aggregate or the use of a retarder.