Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

Frost Action in Rocks and Concrete, HR-258, 1986

The objectives of the project were to develop methodologies for (i) prediction and measurement of the magnitude of pressure which develops within pores of saturated porous materials upon freezing, (ii) determination of pore structure (pore size distribution) of porous materials; (iii) prediction and measurement of the rate with which pore ice grows; and (iv) prediction of frost susceptibility of porous materials with varying pore structures. As with all research endeavors solution of one problem leads to another one and this project was no exception. Emergence of new problems and the measures taken as the work progressed were discussed in progress reports submitted to the board. This final report will discuss only the conclusive finds and suggest measures to be taken for future investigations. The theory discussed in the proposal is not repeated in this report for the sake of brevity. However, the paper published as part of this project containing the theory is attached as Appendix I for the reader interested in the theory. In conformity with the objectives, this report consists of four parts. In accordance with the project contract two ice porosimeters were built and one will be delivered to the Iowa DOT after training of a DOT technician under the supervision of Mr. Wendell Dubberke with assistance from ISU researchers. During the training period debugging and further improvements in software will continue.