The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Concrete Pavement Construction Basics, June 2006

General principles • Everyone at the construction site, particularly foremen and supervisors, is responsible for recognizing and troubleshooting potential problems as they arise. • Batches of concrete should be consistent and uniformly mixed. • A major cause of pavement failure is unstable subgrade. The subgrade should consist of uniform material, and the subgrade system must drain well. • Dowel bars are important for load transfer at transverse joints on pavements with high truck volumes. Dowels must be carefully aligned, horizontally and vertically, to prevent pavement damage at the joints. • Stringlines control the slipform paver’s horizontal and vertical movement and ensure a smooth pavement profile. Once stringlines are set, they should be checked often and not disturbed. • Overfinishing the new pavement and/or adding water to the surface can lead to pavement surface problems. If the concrete isn’t sufficiently workable, crews should contact the project manager. Changes to the mixture or to paver equipment may reduce the problem. • Proper curing is critical to preventing pavement damage from rapid moisture loss at the pavement surface. • A well spaced and constructed system of joints is critical to prevent random cracking. • Joints are simply controlled cracks. They must be sawed during the brief time after the pavement has gained enough strength to prevent raveling but before it begins to crack randomly (the “sawing window”). • Seasonal and daily weather variations affect setting time and other variables in new concrete. Construction operations should be adjusted appropriately.

Demonstration and Field Evaluation of Alternative Portland Cement Concrete Pavement Reinforcement Materials, HR-1069, 2003

Transverse joints are placed in portland cement concrete pavements to control the development of random cracking due to stresses induced by moisture and thermal gradients and restrained slab movement. These joints are strengthened through the use of load transfer devices, typically dowel bars, designed to transfer load across the joint from one pavement slab to the next. Epoxy coated steel bars are the materials of choice at the present time, but have experienced some difficulties with resistance to corrosion from deicing salts. The research project investigated the use of alternative materials, dowel size and spacing to determine the benefits and limitations of each material. In this project two types of fiber composite materials, stainless steel solid dowels and epoxy coated dowels were tested for five years in side by side installation in a portion of U.S. 65 near Des Moines, Iowa, between 1997 and 2002. The work was directed at analyzing the load transfer characteristics of 8-in. vs. 12-in. spacing of the dowels and the alternative dowel materials, fiber composite (1.5- and 1.88-in. diameter) and stainless steel (1.5-in. diameter), compared to typical 1.5-in. diameter epoxy-coated steel dowels placed on 12-in. spacing. Data were collected biannually within each series of joints and variables in terms of load transfer in each lane (outer wheel path), visual distress, joint openings, and faulting in each wheel path. After five years of performance the following observations were made from the data collected. Each of the dowel materials is performing equally in terms of load transfer, joint movement and faulting. Stainless steel dowels are providing load transfer performance equal to or greater than epoxy-coated steel dowels at the end of five years. Fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) dowels of the sizes and materials tested should be spaced no greater than 8 in. apart to achieve comparable performance to epoxy coated dowels. No evidence of deterioration due to road salts was identified on any of the products tested. The relatively high cost of stainless steel solid and FRP dowels was a limitation at the time of this study conclusion. Work is continuing with the subject materials in laboratory studies to determine the proper shape, spacing, chemical composition and testing specification to make the FRP and stainless (clad or solid) dowels a viable alternative joint load transfer material for long lasting portland cement concrete pavements.