The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, June 2005

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, November 2006

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country’s vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.

Iowa Rail Route Alternatives Analysis, June 1998

The development of new rail systems in the first part of the 21st century is the result of a wide range of trends that are making it increasingly difficult to maintain regional mobility using the two dominant intercity travel modes, auto and air. These trends include the changing character of the economic structure of industry. The character of the North American industrial structure is moving rapidly from a manufacturing base to a service based economy. This is increasing the need for business travel while the increase in disposable income due to higher salaries has promoted increased social and tourist travel. Another trend is the change in the regulatory environment. The trend towards deregulation has dramatically reduced the willingness of the airlines to operate from smaller airports and the level of service has fallen due to the creation of hub and spoke systems. While new air technology such as regional jets may mitigate this trend to some degree in medium-size airports, smaller airports will continue to lose out. Finally, increasing environmental concerns have reduced the ability of the automobile to meet intercity travel needs because of increased suburban congestion and limited highway capacity in big cities. Against this background the rail mode offers new options due to first, the existing rail rights-of-way offering direct access into major cities that, in most cases, have significant capacity available and, second, a revolution in vehicle technology that makes new rail rolling stock faster and less expensive to purchase and operate. This study is designed to evaluate the potential for rail service making an important contribution to maintaining regional mobility over the next 30 to 50 years in Iowa. The study evaluates the potential for rail service on three key routes across Iowa and assesses the impact of new train technology in reducing costs and improving rail service. The study also considers the potential for developing the system on an incremental basis. The service analysis and recommendations do not involve current Amtrak intercity service. That service is presumed to continue on its current route and schedule. The study builds from data and analyses that have been generated for the Midwest Rail Initiative (MWRI) Study. For example, the zone system and operating and capital unit cost assumptions are derived from the MWRI study. The MWRI represents a cooperative effort between nine Midwest states, Amtrak and the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) contracting with Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. to evaluate the potential for a regional rail system. The 1 The map represents the system including the decision on the Iowa route derived from the current study. Iowa Rail Route Alternatives Analysis TEMS 1-2 system is to offer modern, frequent, higher speed train service to the region, with Chicago as the connecting hub. Exhibit 1-1 illustrates the size of the system, and how the Iowa route fits in to the whole.