5 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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The Bridges Decision Support Model is a geographic information system (GIS) that assembles existing data on archaeological sites, surveys, and their geologic contexts to assess the risk of bridge replacement projects encountering 13,000- to 150-year-old Native American sites. This project identifies critical variables for assessing prehistoric sites potential, examines the quality of available data about the variables, and applies the data to creating a decision support framework for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and others. An analysis of previous archaeological surveys indicates that subsurface testing to discover buried sites became increasingly common after 1980, but did not become routine until after the adoption of guidelines recommending such testing, in 1993. Even then, the average depth of testing has been relatively shallow. Alluvial deposits of sufficient age, deposited in depositional environments conducive to human habitation, are considerably thicker than archaeologists have routinely tested.

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This work supported drafting project management guidance for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). The goal is to incorporate a greater focus on project management in their project development process. A technical advisory committee (TAC) was assembled to accomplish this effort. The TAC took into consideration the current status of project management with the Iowa DOT, their experience during the demonstration workshop held in Iowa as part of the implementation assistance they received, the project management peer exchange hosted by the Iowa DOT, and additional examples of project management that were presented. With this basis, the TAC participated in a number of discussions to develop draft guidance for the foundation of a Project Management Office (PMO) within the Iowa DOT. The final report describes the process that was used in establishing this guidance. The report details the decisions and decision process that the TAC employed in this endeavor and provides additional thoughts and insight into the draft guidance. Appendix A includes the draft guidance in the form of PMO function details and detailed lists of project management roles and responsibilities. Appendix B includes a starter list of project management resources for the PMO.

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A laboratory study has been conducted with two aims in mind. The first goal was to develop a description of how a cutting edge scrapes ice from the road surface. The second goal was to investigate the extent, if any, to which serrated blades were better than un-serrated or "classical" blades at ice removal. The tests were conducted in the Ice Research Laboratory at the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research of the University of Iowa. A specialized testing machine, with a hydraulic ram capable of attaining scraping velocities of up to 30 m.p.h. was used in the testing. In order to determine the ice scraping process, the effects of scraping velocity, ice thickness, and blade geometry on the ice scraping forces were determined. Higher ice thickness lead to greater ice chipping (as opposed to pulverization at lower thicknesses) and thus lower loads. Behavior was observed at higher velocities. The study of blade geometry included the effect of rake angle, clearance angle, and flat width. The latter were found to be particularly important in developing a clear picture of the scraping process. As clearance angle decreases and flat width increases, the scraping loads show a marked increase, due to the need to re-compress pulverized ice fragments. The effect of serrations was to decrease the scraping forces. However, for the coarsest serrated blades (with the widest teeth and gaps) the quantity of ice removed was significantly less than for a classical blade. Finer serrations appear to be able to match the ice removal of classical blades at lower scraping loads. Thus, one of the recommendations of this study is to examine the use of serrated blades in the field. Preliminary work (by Nixon and Potter, 1996) suggests such work will be fruitful. A second and perhaps more challenging result of the study is that chipping of ice is more preferable to pulverization of the ice. How such chipping can be forced to occur is at present an open question.

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A laboratory study has been conducted with two aims in mind. The first goal was to develop a description of how a cutting edge scrapes ice from the road surface. The second goal was to investigate the extent, if any, to which serrated blades were better than un-serrated or "classical" blades at ice removal. The tests were conducted in the Ice Research Laboratory at the Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research of the University of Iowa. A specialized testing machine, with a hydraulic ram capable of attaining scraping velocities of up to 30 m.p.h. was used in the testing. In order to determine the ice scraping process, the effects of scraping velocity, ice thickness, and blade geometry on the ice scraping forces were determined. Higher ice thickness lead to greater ice chipping (as opposed to pulverization at lower thicknesses) and thus lower loads. S~milabr ehavior was observed at higher velocities. The study of blade geometry included the effect of rake angle, clearance angle, and flat width. The latter were found to be particularly important in developing a clear picture of the scraping process. As clearance angle decreases and flat width increases, the scraping loads show a marked increase, due to the need to re-compress pulverized ice fragments. The effect of serrations was to decrease the scraping forces. However, for the coarsest serrated blades (with the widest teeth and gaps) the quantity of ice removed was significantly less than for a classical blade. Finer serrations appear to be able to match the ice removal of classical blades at lower scraping loads. Thus, one of the recommendations of this study is to examine the use of serrated blades in the field. Preliminary work (by Nixon and Potter, 1996) suggests such work will be fruitful. A second and perhaps more challenging result of the study is that chipping of ice is more preferable to pulverization of the ice. How such chipping can be forced to occur is at present an open question.

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Researchers should continuously ask how to improve the models we rely on to make financial decisions in terms of the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of roadways. This project presents an alternative tool that will supplement local decision making but maintain a full appreciation of the complexity and sophistication of today’s regional model and local traffic impact study methodologies. This alternative method is tailored to the desires of local agencies, which requested a better, faster, and easier way to evaluate land uses and their impact on future traffic demands at the sub-area or project corridor levels. A particular emphasis was placed on scenario planning for currently undeveloped areas. The scenario planning tool was developed using actual land use and roadway information for the communities of Johnston and West Des Moines, Iowa. Both communities used the output from this process to make regular decisions regarding infrastructure investment, design, and land use planning. The City of Johnston case study included forecasting future traffic for the western portion of the city within a 2,600-acre area, which included 42 intersections. The City of West Des Moines case study included forecasting future traffic for the city’s western growth area covering over 30,000 acres and 331 intersections. Both studies included forecasting a.m. and p.m. peak-hour traffic volumes based upon a variety of different land use scenarios. The tool developed took goegraphic information system (GIS)-based parcel and roadway information, converted the data into a graphical spreadsheet tool, allowed the user to conduct trip generation, distribution, and assignment, and then to automatically convert the data into a Synchro roadway network which allows for capacity analysis and visualization. The operational delay outputs were converted back into a GIS thematic format for contrast and further scenario planning. This project has laid the groundwork for improving both planning and civil transportation decision making at the sub-regional, super-project level.