7 resultados para Predictive modeling
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.
Resumo:
The 2007 Iowa General Assembly, recognizing the increased demand for water to support the growth of industries and municipalities, approved funding for the first year of a multi-year evaluation and modeling of Iowa’s major aquifers by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The task of conducting this evaluation and modeling was assigned to the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS). The first aquifer to be studied was the Lower Dakota aquifer in a sixteen county area of northwest Iowa.
Resumo:
The work described in this report documents the activities performed for the evaluation, development, and enhancement of the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) pavement condition information as part of their pavement management system operation. The study covers all of the Iowa DOT’s interstate and primary National Highway System (NHS) and non-NHS system. A new pavement condition rating system that provides a consistent, unified approach in rating pavements in Iowa is being proposed. The proposed 100-scale system is based on five individual indices derived from specific distress data and pavement properties, and an overall pavement condition index, PCI-2, that combines individual indices using weighting factors. The different indices cover cracking, ride, rutting, faulting, and friction. The Cracking Index is formed by combining cracking data (transverse, longitudinal, wheel-path, and alligator cracking indices). Ride, rutting, and faulting indices utilize the International Roughness Index (IRI), rut depth, and fault height, respectively.
Resumo:
Hydrologic analysis is a critical part of transportation design because it helps ensure that hydraulic structures are able to accommodate the flow regimes they are likely to see. This analysis is currently conducted using computer simulations of water flow patterns, and continuing developments in elevation survey techniques result in higher and higher resolution surveys. Current survey techniques now resolve many natural and anthropogenic features that were not practical to map and, thus, require new methods for dealing with depressions and flow discontinuities. A method for depressional analysis is proposed that uses the fact that most anthropogenically constructed embankments are roughly more symmetrical with greater slopes than natural depressions. An enforcement method for draining depressions is then analyzed on those depressions that should be drained. This procedure has been evaluated on a small watershed in central Iowa, Walnut Creek of the South Skunk River, HUC12 # 070801050901, and was found to accurately identify 88 of 92 drained depressions and place enforcements within two pixels, although the method often tries to drain prairie pothole depressions that are bisected by anthropogenic features.
Resumo:
In work-zone configurations where lane drops are present, merging of traffic at the taper presents an operational concern. In addition, as flow through the work zone is reduced, the relative traffic safety of the work zone is also reduced. Improving work-zone flow-through merge points depends on the behavior of individual drivers. By better understanding driver behavior, traffic control plans, work zone policies, and countermeasures can be better targeted to reinforce desirable lane closure merging behavior, leading to both improved safety and work-zone capacity. The researchers collected data for two work-zone scenarios that included lane drops with one scenario on the Interstate and the other on an urban arterial roadway. The researchers then modeled and calibrated these scenarios in VISSIM using real-world speeds, travel times, queue lengths, and merging behaviors (percentage of vehicles merging upstream and near the merge point). Once built and calibrated, the researchers modeled strategies for various countermeasures in the two work zones. The models were then used to test and evaluate how various merging strategies affect safety and operations at the merge areas in these two work zones.
Resumo:
A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. Thirty-eight selected basin characteristics were quantified and flood-frequency analyses were computed for 291 streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States. A generalized-skew-coefficient analysis was conducted to determine whether generalized skew coefficients could be improved for Iowa. Station skew coefficients were computed for 239 gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States, and an isoline map of generalized-skew-coefficient values was developed for Iowa using variogram modeling and kriging methods. The skew map provided the lowest mean square error for the generalized-skew- coefficient analysis and was used to revise generalized skew coefficients for flood-frequency analyses for gaging stations in Iowa. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression and data from 241 gaging stations, was used to develop equations for three hydrologic regions defined for the State. The regression equations can be used to estimate flood discharges that have recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. One-variable equations were developed for each of the three regions and multi-variable equations were developed for two of the regions. Two sets of equations are presented for two of the regions because one-variable equations are considered easy for users to apply and the predictive accuracies of multi-variable equations are greater. Standard error of prediction for the one-variable equations ranges from about 34 to 45 percent and for the multi-variable equations range from about 31 to 42 percent. A region-of-influence regression method was also investigated for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. A comparison of regional and region-of-influence regression methods, based on ease of application and root mean square errors, determined the regional regression method to be the better estimation method for Iowa. Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa are presented for determining ( 1) regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) weighted estimates for gaged sites; and (3) weighted estimates for ungaged sites on gaged streams. The technique for determining regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams requires determining which of four possible examples applies to the location of the stream site and its basin. Illustrations for determining which example applies to an ungaged stream site and for applying both the one-variable and multi-variable regression equations are provided for the estimation techniques.
Resumo:
The overarching goal of the proposed research was to provide a predictive tool for knickpoint propagation within the HCA (Hungry Canyon Alliance) territory. Knickpoints threaten the stability of bridge structures in Western Iowa. The study involved detailed field investigations over two years in order to monitor the upstream migration of a knickpoint on Mud Creek in Mills County, IA and identify the key mechanisms triggering knickpoint propagation. A state-of-the-art laser level system mounted on a movable truss provided continuous measurements of the knickpoint front for different flow conditions. A pressure transducer found in proximity of the truss provided simultaneous measurements of the flow depth. The laser and pressure transducer measurements led to the identification of the conditions at which the knickpoint migration commences. It was suggested that negative pressures developed by the reverse roller flow near the toe of the knickpoint face triggered undercutting of the knickpoint at this location. The pressure differential between the negative pressure and the atmospheric pressure also draws the impinging jet closer to the knickpoint face producing scour. In addition, the pressure differential may induce suction of sediment from the face. Other contributing factors include slump failure, seepage effects, and local fluvial erosion due to the exerted fluid shear. The prevailing flow conditions and soil information along with the channel cross-sectional geometry and gradient were used as inputs to a transcritical, one dimensional, hydraulic/geomorphic numerical model, which was used to map the flow characteristics and shear stress conditions near the knickpoint. Such detailed flow calculations do not exist in the published literature. The coupling of field and modeling work resulted in the development of a blueprint methodology, which can be adopted in different parts of the country for evaluating knickpoint evolution. This information will assist local government agencies in better understanding the principal factors that cause knickpoint propagation and help estimate the needed response time to control the propagation of a knickpoint after one has been identified.