Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

The Relationship of Ferroan Dolomite Aggregate to Rapid Concrete Deterioration, HR-266, 1987

Some of Iowa's 13,200 miles of portland cement concrete (pcc) pavement have remained structurally sound for over 50 years while others have suffered premature deterioration. Research has shown that the type of coarse aggregate used in the pcc is the major cause of this premature deterioration. Some coarse aggregates for concrete exhibit a nonuniform performance history. They contribute to premature deterioration on heavily salted primary roadways while providing long maintenance-free life on unsalted secondary pavements. This inconsistency supports the premise that there are at least two mechanisms that contribute to the deterioration. Previous research has shown that one of these mechanisms is a bad pore system. The other is apparently a chemical reaction. The objective of this research is to develop simple rapid test methods to predict the durability of carbonate aggregate in pcc pavement. X-ray diffraction analyses of aggregate samples have been conducted on various beds from numerous quarries producing diffraction plots for more than 200 samples of dolomitic or dolomite aggregates. The crystalline structures of these dolomitic aggregates show maximum-intensity dolomite/ankerite peaks ranging from a d-spacing of 2.884 angstroms for good aggregates to a d-spacing of 2.914 angstroms for nondurable aggregates. If coarse aggregates with known bad pore systems are removed from this summary, the d-spacing values of the remaining aggregates correlate very well with expected service life. This may indicate that the iron substitution for magnesium in the dolomite crystal is associated with the instability of the ferroan dolomite aggregates in pcc pavement.

Do fire and seed additions alter strong seed timing and priority effects on prairie establishment?, 2011

Many prairie restoration projects are hampered by a lack of knowledge on how to restore the high diversity found in prairies, while at the same time preventing the establishment of a large weedy component. Methods are needed to increase diversity and abundance of native species while minimizing exotic species invasions in both 1) newly planted restorations and 2) established restorations. We established an experiment in Story and Monona counties in 2005 to determine the effects of different native cover crop species and timing of seeding on the establishment of new prairie restorations. We found that adding a 30-species prairie mix in early spring led to diverse native communities, but adding the mix in the late summer or the following year after cover crops established led to low diversity communities dominated by exotics. The identity of cover crops affected communities less than timing of seed additions. A second seed addition added to ash after a spring fire in the seventh year (Monona County site) increased recruitment from the prairie mix slightly, but the increase was not enough to cause convergence in the treatments. Surprisingly, the second seed addition increased diversity only in communities that were already the most diverse (i.e., in plots seeded with the prairie mix in early spring before cover crops established). These results imply that 1) cover crops are not effective for establishing prairie and 2) over seeding into established plots may not be an easy and efficient way to increase native recruitment and lower weedy species abundances. Therefore, focusing on establishing high levels of recruitment and diversity and excluding weedy species during the critical time early in establishment should be a priority for new projects.