6 resultados para Optimal hedge ratio. Garch. Effectiveness

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

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In the last decade, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have increasingly been deployed in work zones by state departments of transportation. Also known as smart work zone systems they improve traffic operations and safety by providing real-time information to travelers, monitoring traffic conditions, and managing incidents. Although there have been numerous ITS deployments in work zones, a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of these deployments does not exist. To justify the continued development and implementation of smart work zone systems, this study developed a framework to determine ITS effectiveness for specific work zone projects. The framework recommends using one or more of five performance measures: diversion rate, delay time, queue length, crash frequency, and speed. The monetary benefits and costs of ITS deployment in a work zone can then be computed using the performance measure values. Such ITS computations include additional considerations that are typically not present in standard benefit-cost computations. The proposed framework will allow for consistency in performance measures across different ITS studies thus allowing for comparisons across studies or for meta analysis. In addition, guidance on the circumstances under which ITS deployment is recommended for a work zone is provided. The framework was illustrated using two case studies: one urban work zone on I-70 and one rural work zone on I-44, in Missouri. The goals of the two ITS deployments were different – the I-70 ITS deployment was targeted at improving mobility whereas the I-44 deployment was targeted at improving safety. For the I-70 site, only permanent ITS equipment that was already in place was used for the project and no temporary ITS equipment was deployed. The permanent DMS equipment serves multiple purposes, and it is arguable whether that cost should be attributed to the work zone project. The data collection effort for the I-70 site was very significant as portable surveillance captured the actual diversion flows to alternative routes. The benefit-cost ratio for the I-70 site was 2.1 to 1 if adjusted equipment costs were included and 6.9 to 1 without equipment costs. The safety-focused I-44 ITS deployment had an estimated benefit-cost ratio of 3.2 to 1.

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Optimal Usage of De-Icing Chemicals when Scraping Ice, Final Report of Project HR 391

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Concrete curing is closely related to cement hydration, microstructure development, and concrete performance. Application of a liquid membrane-forming curing compound is among the most widely used curing methods for concrete pavements and bridge decks. Curing compounds are economical, easy to apply, and maintenance free. However, limited research has been done to investigate the effectiveness of different curing compounds and their application technologies. No reliable standard testing method is available to evaluate the effectiveness of curing, especially of the field concrete curing. The present research investigates the effects of curing compound materials and application technologies on concrete properties, especially on the properties of surface concrete. This report presents a literature review of curing technology, with an emphasis on curing compounds, and the experimental results from the first part of this research—lab investigation. In the lab investigation, three curing compounds were selected and applied to mortar specimens at three different times after casting. Two application methods, single- and double-layer applications, were employed. Moisture content, conductivity, sorptivity, and degree of hydration were measured at different depths of the specimens. Flexural and compressive strength of the specimens were also tested. Statistical analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between these material properties. The research results indicate that application of a curing compound significantly increased moisture content and degree of cement hydration and reduced sorptivity of the near-surface-area concrete. For given concrete materials and mix proportions, optimal application time of curing compounds depended primarily upon the weather condition. If a sufficient amount of a high-efficiency-index curing compound was uniformly applied, no double-layer application was necessary. Among all test methods applied, the sorptivity test is the most sensitive one to provide good indication for the subtle changes in microstructure of the near-surface-area concrete caused by different curing materials and application methods. Sorptivity measurement has a close relation with moisture content and degree of hydration. The research results have established a baseline for and provided insight into the further development of testing procedures for evaluation of curing compounds in field. Recommendations are provided for further field study.

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The safety benefit of signalizing intersections of high-speed divided expressways is considered. Analyses were conducted on 50 and 55 mph and on 55 mph only intersections, comparing unsignalized and signalized intersections. Results of the 55 mph analysis are included in this report. Matched-pair analysis indicates that generally, signalized intersections have higher crash rate but lower costs per crash. On the other hand, before-and-after analysis (intersections signalized between 1994 and 2001) indicates lower crash rates (~30 percent) and total costs (~10 percent) after signalization. Empirical Bayes (EB) adjusted before-and-after analysis reduces estimates of safety benefit (crash rate) to about 20 percent. The study shows how commonly used analyses can differ in their results, and that there is great variability in the safety performance of individual signalized locations. This variability and the effect of EB adjustment are demonstrated through the use of innovative graphics.

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A special task force was formed and worked through its various committees to uncover and investigate possible areas for cutting costs and saving money in State Government operations. A total of 81 recommendations are made in this report, with potential savings of over $32 million during the next several years.