Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Field Demonstration of Foamed Asphalt Muscatine County, HR-257, 1988

The foamed asphalt concept has been around since the 1950's. Rising oil prices have created a renewed interest in this process. The purpose of this project was to construct an asphalt base using the foamed asphalt process and to evaluate its performance. A 4.2 mile length of Muscatine County road A-91 was selected for the research project. Asphalt contents of 4.5% and 5.5%, moisture contents of 70% and 90% of optimum, and fog, single chip, and double chip seal coats were used in various combinations to lay 9 test sections of 4-inch foamed asphalt base. After five years of service and evaluation, several conclusions can be made concerning the performance of the foamed asphalt bases: (1) the foamed asphalt process can work as shown by the excellent performance of Sections 2 and 3; (2) foamed asphalt base requires a well compacted subgrade and a road profile suitable for good drainage of water--test section failures were mostly due to a poor subgrade and subsurface moisture; and (3) when the base is placed in two or more lifts, extreme care must be exercised to insure adequate bonding is achieved between lifts. Any future research with foamed asphalt should include various asphalt depths in order to determine a thickness/strength relationship for foamed asphalt.

The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, June 2005

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues, February 2000

A dynamic, three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a freemarket policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes made when FAIR was enacted did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the Pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program, 2007

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.

Fuel Adjustment, April 2011

Article 2120 of the Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction Series 2009 provides for a fuel adjustment factor to be applied to payments and partial payments for quantities of certain items of excavation work as the work is done, in accordance with the specification, when indicated in the contract documents. A Current Price Index (CPI), in dollars per gallon (liter), will be established by the DOT for each month. The CPI will be the price of No. 2 High Sulfur Diesel, as reported by Oil Price Information Service using the first weekday for the month and the average of all prices reported for Des Moines. The Base Price Index (BPI) for each contract will be the CPI in effect during the month previous to the month of the letting of that contract. If the contract has metric units, divide the Price Index ($/gal) by 3.785412 to obtain $/liter.

Fuel Adjustment, May 2011

Article 2120 of the Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction Series 2009 provides for a fuel adjustment factor to be applied to payments and partial payments for quantities of certain items of excavation work as the work is done, in accordance with the specification, when indicated in the contract documents. A Current Price Index (CPI), in dollars per gallon (liter), will be established by the DOT for each month. The CPI will be the price of No. 2 High Sulfur Diesel, as reported by Oil Price Information Service using the first weekday for the month and the average of all prices reported for Des Moines. The Base Price Index (BPI) for each contract will be the CPI in effect during the month previous to the month of the letting of that contract. If the contract has metric units, divide the Price Index ($/gal) by 3.785412 to obtain $/liter.

Development of Bio-Based Polymers for Use in Asphalt, TR-639, 2014

Asphalt binder is typically modified with poly type (styrene-butadiene-styrene or SBS) polymers to improve its rheological properties and performance grade. The elastic and principal component of SBS polymers is butadiene. For the last decade, butadiene prices have fluctuated and significantly increased, leading state highway agencies to search for economically viable alternatives to butadiene based materials. This project reports the recent advances in polymerization techniques that have enabled the synthesis of elastomeric, thermoplastic, block-copolymers (BCPs) comprised of styrene and soybean oil, where the “B” block in SBS polymers is replaced with polymerized triglycerides derived from soybean oil. These new breeds of biopolymers have elastomeric properties comparable to well-established butadiene-based styrenic BCPs. In this report, two types of biopolymer formulations are evaluated for their ability to modify asphalt binder. Laboratory blends of asphalt modified with the biopolymers are tested for their rheological properties and performance grade. Blends of asphalt modified with the biopolymers are compared to blends of asphalt modified with two commonly used commercial polymers. The viscoelastic properties of the blends show that biopolymers improve the performance grade of the asphalt to a similar and even greater extent as the commercial SBS polymers. Results shown in this report indicate there is an excellent potential for the future of these biopolymers as economically and environmentally favorable alternatives to their petrochemically-derived analogs.

Indexes of prices received by Iowa farmers for farm commodities.

The Iowa Crop and Livestock Report

Health consultation : Buchanan Bulk Oil -- Ma & Pa Stores West 6th Avenue and South F Street, Oskaloosa, Mahaska County, Iowa (2006)

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) has requested the Iowa Department of Public Health (IDPH) Hazardous Waste Site Health Assessment Program to evaluate the potential health impacts of the future development at the Buchanan Bulk Oil – Ma & Pa Stores site. A Targeted Brownfields Assessment was completed by the IDNR at this site to measure existing on-site contaminants. Assistance was sought from the IDPH to determine potential health risks if the site was developed for residential use. This health consultation addresses potential health risks to people from exposure to the contaminants found in the soil and groundwater within the property boundary. The information in this health consultation was current at the time of writing. Data that emerges later could alter this document’s conclusions and recommendations.