Biosciences Path for Development: Economic and Core Competency Analyses, March 2004

Report produced by Iowa Department of Economic Development

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

2015 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. From 1983 to 2014, this monitoring effort was known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Beginning in 2015, the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa was changed to the Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (IFTMP). The IFTMP is administered by IDNR and the tissue analyses are completed at the SHL. Historically, the data generated from the IFTMP have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The IFTMP incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2014 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. From 1983 to 2014, this monitoring effort was known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Beginning in 2015, the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa was changed to the Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (IFTMP). The IFTMP is administered by IDNR and the analyses are completed at the SHL. Historically, the data generated from the IFTMP have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The IFTMP incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2013 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2012 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2011 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) follow-up, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2010 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random, 4) follow-up and 5) turtle.

2009 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up. New for 2009 was the one-time inclusion of snapping turtle tissue as part of the Iowa RAFT sampling program.

2008 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up.

2006/2007 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006a). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up.

2005 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2004 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different but equally important types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2003 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program; Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of Iowans consuming fish. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different but equally important types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.