The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Number of Inmates with Life Sentences Leveling Off, April 2013, Corrections, Department of

For over three decades, the number of Iowa inmates with life sentences has shown a steady increase. As the chart below shows, that number has risen from 111 in 1980 to 680 in 2012 (data for 1987 is unavailable due to transitioning to new data systems)

Evaluation of Electronic Speed Limit Signs on US 30, September, 2011

This study documents the speed reduction impacts of two dynamic, electronic school zone speed limit signs at United Community Schools between Ames and Boone, Iowa. The school facility is situated along US Highway 30, a rural four-lane divided expressway. Due to concerns about high speeds in the area, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) decided to replace the original static school zone speed limit signs, which had flashing beacons during school start and dismissal times (Figure 1), with electronic speed signs that only display the reduced school speed limit of 55 mph during school arrival and dismissal times (Figure 2). The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) at Iowa State University (ISU) conducted a speed evaluation study one week before and 1 month, 7 months, and 14 or 15 months after the new signs were installed. Overall, the new dynamic school zone speed limit signs were more effective in reducing speeds than the original static signs with flashing beacons in the 1 month after period. During the 7 and 14 month after period, speeds increased slightly for the eastbound direction of traffic. However, the increases were consistent with overall speed increases that occurred independent of the signs. The dynamic, electronic signs were effective for the westbound direction of traffic for all time periods and for both start and dismissal times. Even though only modest changes in mean and 85th percentile speeds occurred, with the speed decreases, the number of vehicles exceeding the school speed limit decreased significantly, indicating the signs had a significant impact on high-end speeders.

Evaluation of Iowa’s 70 mph Speed Limit — 2.5 Year Update, 2009

On July 1, 2005, the State of Iowa implemented a 70 mile per hour (mph) speed limit on most rural Interstates. This document reports on a study of the safety effect of this change. Changes in speeds, traffic volume on and off the rural Interstate system (diversion), and safety (crashes) for on- and off-system roads were studied. After the change, mean and 85th percentile speeds increased by about 2 mph on rural Interstates, but speeding was reduced (the number of drivers exceeding the speed limit by 10 mph decreased from 20 per cent to about 8 per cent). Daytime and nighttime serious crashes were studied for a period of 14 and a half years prior to the change and 2 and a half years afterwards. Simple descriptive statistics reveal increases in all crash severity categories for the 2 and a half year period following the speed limit increase when compared to the most recent comparable 2 and a half year period prior to the increase. When compared to longer term trends, the increases were less pronounced in some severity levels and types, and for a few severity levels the average crash frequencies were observed to decrease. However, fatal and other serious cross-median crashes increased by relatively larger amounts as compared to expected random variation. The study also analyzed crash frequencies grouped into six-month periods, revealing similar findings.

Evaluation of Iowa's Driver Improvement Program, 2009

This study examines the effectiveness of Iowa’s Driver Improvement Program (DIP), measured as the reduction in the number of driver convictions subsequent to the DIP. The analysis involved a random sample of 9,055 drivers who had been instructed to attend DIP and corresponding data on driver convictions, crashes, and driver education training history that were provided by the Iowa Motor Vehicle Division. The sample was divided into two groups based on DIP outcome: satisfactory or unsatisfactory completion. Two evaluation periods were considered: one year after the DIP date (probation period) and the period from the 13th to 18th month after the DIP date. The evaluation of Iowa’s DIP showed that there is evidence of effectiveness in terms of reducing driver convictions subsequent to attending the DIP. Among the 6,790 (75%) drivers who completed the course satisfactorily, 73% of drivers had no actions and 93% were not involved in a crash during the probation period. Statistical tests confirmed these numbers. However, the positive effect of satisfactory completion of DIP on survival time (that is, the time until the first conviction) was not statistically significant 13 months after the DIP date. Econometric model estimation results showed that, regardless of the DIP outcome, the likelihood of conviction occurrence and frequency of subsequent convictions depends on other factors, such as age, driver history, and DIP location, and interaction effects among these factors. Low-cost, early intervention measures are suggested to enhance the effectiveness of Iowa’s DIP. These measures can include advisory and warning letters (customized based on the driver’s age) sent within the first year after the DIP date and soon after the end of the probation period, as well as a closer examination of DIP instruction across the 17 community colleges that host the program. Given the large number of suspended drivers who continued to drive, consideration should also be given to measures to reduce driving while suspended offenses.