25 resultados para Nonparametric regression techniques

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.

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Provision of left turn lanes is a major problem which lacks an objective approach. Various techniques and procedures in use have been reviewed. Traffic characteristics at typical Iowa intersections have been measured. A rational approach for inclusion of a left turn lane has been developed, based on relating the benefits to the road user to the cost of providing the added turing lane. An analysis of field data gathered under this project indicates that the use of theoretical distribution to describe vehicle headways is not applicable to rural Iowa two lane roads. As an alternate approach the mass of field data gathered were examined using multiple regression techniques to yield equations for predicting stops and delays. The benefit-cost ratio technique is recommended as the criterion for decision making.

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Behavior of granular material subjected to repeated load triaxial compression tests is characterized by a model based on rate process theory. Starting with the Arrhenius equation from chemical kinetics, the relationship of temperature, shear stress, normal stress and volume change to deformation rate is developed. The proposed model equation includes these factors as a product of exponential terms. An empirical relationship between deformation and the cube root of the number of stress applications at constant temperature and normal stress is combined with the rate equation to yield an integrated relationship of temperature, deviator stress, confining pressure and number of deviator stress applications to axial strain. The experimental program consists of 64 repeated load triaxial compression tests, 52 on untreated crushed stone and 12 on the same crushed stone material treated with 4% asphalt cement. Results were analyzed with multiple linear regression techniques and show substantial agreement with the model equations. Experimental results fit the rate equation somewhat better than the integrated equation when all variable quantities are considered. The coefficient of shear temperature gives the activation enthalpy, which is about 4.7 kilocalories/mole for untreated material and 39.4 kilocalories/mole for asphalt-treated material. This indicates the activation enthalpy is about that of the pore fluid. The proportionality coefficient of deviator stress may be used to measure flow unit volume. The volumes thus determined for untreated and asphalt-treated material are not substantially different. This may be coincidental since comparison with flow unit volumes reported by others indicates flow unit volume is related to gradation of untreated material. The flow unit volume of asphalt-treated material may relate to asphalt cement content. The proposed model equations provide a more rational basis for further studies of factors affecting deformation of granular materials under stress similar to that in pavement subjected to transient traffic loads.

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A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. Thirty-eight selected basin characteristics were quantified and flood-frequency analyses were computed for 291 streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States. A generalized-skew-coefficient analysis was conducted to determine whether generalized skew coefficients could be improved for Iowa. Station skew coefficients were computed for 239 gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States, and an isoline map of generalized-skew-coefficient values was developed for Iowa using variogram modeling and kriging methods. The skew map provided the lowest mean square error for the generalized-skew- coefficient analysis and was used to revise generalized skew coefficients for flood-frequency analyses for gaging stations in Iowa. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression and data from 241 gaging stations, was used to develop equations for three hydrologic regions defined for the State. The regression equations can be used to estimate flood discharges that have recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. One-variable equations were developed for each of the three regions and multi-variable equations were developed for two of the regions. Two sets of equations are presented for two of the regions because one-variable equations are considered easy for users to apply and the predictive accuracies of multi-variable equations are greater. Standard error of prediction for the one-variable equations ranges from about 34 to 45 percent and for the multi-variable equations range from about 31 to 42 percent. A region-of-influence regression method was also investigated for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. A comparison of regional and region-of-influence regression methods, based on ease of application and root mean square errors, determined the regional regression method to be the better estimation method for Iowa. Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa are presented for determining ( 1) regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) weighted estimates for gaged sites; and (3) weighted estimates for ungaged sites on gaged streams. The technique for determining regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams requires determining which of four possible examples applies to the location of the stream site and its basin. Illustrations for determining which example applies to an ungaged stream site and for applying both the one-variable and multi-variable regression equations are provided for the estimation techniques.

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Appropriate curing is important for concrete to obtain the designed properties. This research was conducted to evaluate the curing effects of different curing materials and methods on pavement properties. At present the sprayed curing compound is a common used method for pavement and other concrete structure construction. Three curing compounds were selected for testing. Two different application rates were employed for the white-pigmented liquid curing compounds. The concrete properties of temperature, moisture content, conductivity, and permeability were examined at several test locations. It was found, in this project, that the concrete properties varied with the depth. Of the tests conducted (maturity, sorptivity, permeability, and conductivity), conductivity appears to be the best method to evaluate the curing effects in the field and bears potential for field application. The results indicated that currently approved curing materials in Iowa, when spread uniformly in a single or double application, provide adequate curing protection and meet the goals of the Iowa Department of Transportation. Experimental curing methods can be compared to this method through the use of conductivity testing to determine their application in the field.

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Concrete curing is closely related to cement hydration, microstructure development, and concrete performance. Application of a liquid membrane-forming curing compound is among the most widely used curing methods for concrete pavements and bridge decks. Curing compounds are economical, easy to apply, and maintenance free. However, limited research has been done to investigate the effectiveness of different curing compounds and their application technologies. No reliable standard testing method is available to evaluate the effectiveness of curing, especially of the field concrete curing. The present research investigates the effects of curing compound materials and application technologies on concrete properties, especially on the properties of surface concrete. This report presents a literature review of curing technology, with an emphasis on curing compounds, and the experimental results from the first part of this research—lab investigation. In the lab investigation, three curing compounds were selected and applied to mortar specimens at three different times after casting. Two application methods, single- and double-layer applications, were employed. Moisture content, conductivity, sorptivity, and degree of hydration were measured at different depths of the specimens. Flexural and compressive strength of the specimens were also tested. Statistical analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between these material properties. The research results indicate that application of a curing compound significantly increased moisture content and degree of cement hydration and reduced sorptivity of the near-surface-area concrete. For given concrete materials and mix proportions, optimal application time of curing compounds depended primarily upon the weather condition. If a sufficient amount of a high-efficiency-index curing compound was uniformly applied, no double-layer application was necessary. Among all test methods applied, the sorptivity test is the most sensitive one to provide good indication for the subtle changes in microstructure of the near-surface-area concrete caused by different curing materials and application methods. Sorptivity measurement has a close relation with moisture content and degree of hydration. The research results have established a baseline for and provided insight into the further development of testing procedures for evaluation of curing compounds in field. Recommendations are provided for further field study.

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Standards for the construction of full-depth patching in portland cement concrete pavement usually require replacement of all deteriorated based materials with crushed stone, up to the bottom of the existing pavement layer. In an effort to reduce the time of patch construction and costs, the Iowa Department of Transportation and the Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering at Iowa State University studied the use of extra concrete depth as an option for base construction. This report compares the impact of additional concrete patching material depth on rate of strength gain, potential for early opening to traffic, patching costs, and long-term patch performance. This report also compares those characteristics in terms of early setting and standard concrete mixes. The results have the potential to change the method of Portland cement concrete pavement patch construction in Iowa.

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Pavement settlement occurring in and around utility cuts is a common problem, resulting in uneven pavement surfaces, annoyance to drivers, and ultimately, further maintenance. A survey of municipal authorities and field and laboratory investigations were conducted to identify the factors contributing to the settlement of utility cut restorations in pavement sections. Survey responses were received from seven cities across Iowa and indicate that utility cut restorations often last less than two years. Observations made during site inspections showed that backfill material varies from one city to another, backfill lift thickness often exceeds 12 inches, and the backfill material is often placed at bulking moisture contents with no Quality control/Quality Assurance. Laboratory investigation of the backfill materials indicate that at the field moisture contents encountered, the backfill materials have collapse potentials up to 35%. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) deflection data and elevation shots indicate that the maximum deflection in the pavement occurs in the area around the utility cut restoration. The FWD data indicate a zone of influence around the perimeter of the restoration extending two to three feet beyond the trench perimeter. The research team proposes moisture control, the use of 65% relative density in a granular fill, and removing and compacting the native material near the ground surface around the trench. Test sections with geogrid reinforcement were also incorporated. The performance of inspected and proposed utility cuts needs to be monitored for at least two more years.

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In line with the rights and incentives provided by the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980, U.S. universities have increased their involvement in patenting and licensing activities through their own technology transfer offices. Only a few U.S. universities are obtaining large returns, however, whereas others are continuing with these activities despite negligible or negative returns. We assess the U.S. universities’ potential to generate returns from licensing activities by modeling and estimating quantiles of the distribution of net licensing returns conditional on some of their structural characteristics. We find limited prospects for public universities without a medical school everywhere in their distribution. Other groups of universities (private, and public with a medical school) can expect significant but still fairly modest returns only beyond the 0.9th quantile. These findings call into question the appropriateness of the revenue-generating motive for the aggressive rate of patenting and licensing by U.S. universities.

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This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating flood frequency discharges. Multi-variable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantification. The multi-variable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantification. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantification indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially underestimate flood discharges. Mean and median percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged from 5.0 to 5.3 and 4.3 to 4.5 percent, respectively, for Region 2 and ranged from 18.3 to 27.1 and 12.3 to 17.3 percent for Region 3. The MCS curves developed from GIS quantification were adjusted by 14.8 percent for streams located in Region 2 and by 17.7 percent for streams located in Region 3. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and adjusted-GIS quantification for Regions 2 and 3 indicate that the flood-discharge estimates are comparable. For Region 2, mean percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 percent and median differences were 0.0 percent. For Region 3, mean and median differences ranged between 5.4 to 8.4 and 0.0 to 0.3 percent, respectively. A list of selected stream sites presented with each curve provides information about the sites including river miles, drainage areas, the location of U.S. Geological Survey stream flowgage stations, and the location of streams Abstract crossing hydro logic region boundaries or the Des Moines Lobe landforms region boundary. Two examples are presented for determining river-mile and MCS values, and two techniques are presented for computing flood-frequency discharges.

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As our nation’s highway system continues to age, asphalt maintenance and rehabilitation techniques have become increasingly important. The deterioration of pavement over time is inevitable. Preventive maintenance is a strategy to extend the serviceable life of a pavement by applying cost-effective treatments that slow the deterioration of pavement and extend its usable life. Thin maintenance surfaces (TMSs) are preventive maintenance techniques that can effectively prolong the life of pavement when applied at an opportune time. Common TMSs include bituminous fog seal, bituminous seal coat, slurry seal, cold in-place recycling (CIR), and micro-surfacing. This research project investigated ways to improve Iowa Statewide Urban Design and Specifications (SUDAS) and Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) documents regarding asphalt roadway maintenance and rehabilitation. Researchers led an effort to review and help ensure that the documents supporting proper selection, design, and construction for asphalt maintenance and rehabilitation techniques reflect the latest research findings on these processes: seal coating, slurry sealing, micro-surfacing, and fog sealing. Full results of this investigation are included in this report and its appendices. This report also presents a summary of the recommendations based on the study results.

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Weathering steel is commonly used as a cost-effective alternative for bridge superstructures, as the costs and environmental impacts associated with the maintenance/replacement of paint coatings are theoretically eliminated. The performance of weathering steel depends on the proper formation of a surface patina, which consists of a dense layer of corrosion product used to protect the steel from further atmospheric corrosion. The development of the weathering steel patina may be hindered by environmental factors such as humid environments, wetting/drying cycles, sheltering, exposure to de-icing chlorides, and design details that permit water to pond on steel surfaces. Weathering steel bridges constructed over or adjacent to other roadways could be subjected to sufficient salt spray that would impede the development of an adequate patina. Addressing areas of corrosion on a weathering steel bridge superstructure where a protective patina has not formed is often costly and negates the anticipated cost savings for this type of steel superstructure. Early detection of weathering steel corrosion is important to extending the service life of the bridge structure; however, written inspection procedures are not available for inspectors to evaluate the performance or quality of the patina. This project focused on the evaluation of weathering steel bridge structures, including possible methods to assess the quality of the weathering steel patina and to properly maintain the quality of the patina. The objectives of this project are summarized as follows:  Identify weathering steel bridge structures that would be most vulnerable to chloride contamination, based on location, exposure, environment, and other factors.  Identify locations on an individual weathering steel bridge structure that would be most susceptible to chloride contamination, such as below joints, splash/spray zones, and areas of ponding water or debris.  Identify possible testing methods and/or inspection techniques for inspectors to evaluate the quality of the weathering steel patina at locations discussed above.  Identify possible methods to measure and evaluate the level of chloride contamination at the locations discussed above.  Evaluate the effectiveness of water washing on removing chlorides from the weathering steel patina.  Develop a general prioritization for the washing of bridge structures based on the structure’s location, environment, inspection observations, patina evaluation findings, and chloride test results.

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This report provides techniques and procedures for estimating the probable magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged sites on Iowa streams. Physiographic characteristics were used to define the boundaries of five hydrologic regions. Regional regression equations that relate the size of the drainage area to flood magnitude are defined for estimating peak discharges having specified recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Regional regression equations are applicable to sites on streams that have drainage areas ranging from 0.04 to 5,150 square miles provided that the streams are not affected significantly by regulation upstream from the sites and that the drainage areas upstream from the sites are not mostly urban areas. Flood-frequency characteristics for the mainstems of selected rivers are presented in graphs as a function of drainage area.

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Many researchers have concluded that secondary or delayed ettringite is responsible for serious premature deterioration of concrete highways. In some poorly performing Iowa concretes, ettringite is the most common secondary mineral but its role in premature deterioration is uncertain since some researchers still maintain that secondary ettringite does not itself cause deterioration. The current research project was designed to determine experimentally if it is possible to reduce secondary ettringite formation in concrete by treating the concrete with commercial crystallization inhibitor chemicals. The hypothesis is such that if the amount of ettringite is reduced, there will also be a concomitant reduction of concrete expansion and cracking. If both ettringite formation and deterioration are simultaneously reduced, then the case for ettringite induced expansion/cracking is strengthened. The experiment used four commercial inhibitors - two phosphonates, a polyacrylic acid, and a phosphate ester. Concrete blocks were subjected to continuous immersion, wet/dry and freeze/thaw cycling in sodium sulfate solutions and in sulfate solutions containing an inhibitor. The two phosphonate inhibitors, Dequest 2060 and Dequest 2010, manufactured by Monsanto Co., were effective in reducing ettringite nucleation and growth in concrete. Two other inhibitors, Good-rite K752 and Wayhib S were somewhat effective, but less so than the two phosphonates. Rapid experiments with solution growth inhibition of ettringite without the presence of concrete phases were used to explore the mechanisms of inhibition of this mineral. Reduction of new ettringite formation in concrete blocks also reduced expansion and cracking of the blocks. This relationship clearly links concrete expansion with this mineral - a conclusion that some research workers have disputed despite theoretical arguments for such a relationship and despite numerous observations of ettringite mineralization in prematurely deteriorated concrete highways. Secondary ettringite nucleation and growth must cause concrete expansion because the only known effect of the inhibitor chemicals is to reduce crystal nucleation and growth, and the inhibitors cannot in any other way be responsible for the reduction in expansion. The mechanism of operation of the inhibitors on ettringite reduction is not entirely clear but the solution growth experiments show that they prevent crystallization of a soluble ettringite precursor gel. The present study shows that ettringite growth alone is not responsible for expansion cracking because the experiments showed that most expansion occurs under wet/dry cycling, less under freeze/thaw cycling, and least under continuous soaking conditions. It was concluded from the different amounts of damage that water absorption by newly-formed, minute ettringite crystals is responsible for part of the observed expansion under wet/dry conditions, and that reduction of freeze resistance by ettringite filling of air-entrainment voids is also important in freeze/thaw environments.

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This research was initiated in 1991 as a part of a whitetopping project to study the effectiveness of various techniques to enhance bond strength between a new portland cement concrete (PCC) overlay and an existing asphalt cement concrete (ACC) pavement surface. A 1,676 m (5,500 ft) section of county road R16 in Dallas County was divided into 12 test sections. The various techniques used to enhance bond were power brooming, power brooming with air blast, milling, cement and water grout, and emulsion tack coat. Also, two sections were planed to a uniform cross-section, two pavement thicknesses were placed, and two different concrete mix proportions were used. Bond strength was perceived to be the key to determining an appropriate design procedure for whitetopping. If adequate bond is achieved, a bonded PCC overlay technique can be used for design. Otherwise, an unbonded overlay procedure may be more appropriate. Conclusions are as follows: (1) Bond Strength Differences - Milling increased bond strength versus no milling. Tack coat showed increased bond strength versus no tack coat. Planing, Air Blast and Grouting did not provide noticeable improvements in bond strength; nor did different PCC types or thicknesses affect bond strength significantly. (2) Structure - Structural measurements correlated strongly with the wide variation in pavement thicknesses. They did not provide enough information to determine the strength of bonding or the level of support being provided by the ACC layer. Longitudinal cracking correlated with PCC thicknesses and with planing. (3) Bond Over Time - The bond between PCC and ACC layers is degrading over time in the outside wheel path in all of the sections except tack coat (section 12). The bond strength in the section with tack coat was lower than the others, but remained relatively steady.