Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels, June 2011

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Fertilizer Use by Crop at the Country Level (1990–2010)

We compute the fertilizer use in corn, cotton, soybeans, and rapeseed in the period from 1990 to 2010 for a set of selected countries. In each case, we present the consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash by crop and by year, reporting both the fertilizer application rates (in kilograms per hectare) and the fertilizer consumption (in thousand metric tonnes). We allocate a country’s total nutrient consumption in a given year among competing crops based on publicly available statistics. The resulting allocation of fertilizer among crops is a function of the country’s nutrients total use, the country’s cropped areas, crop world prices, and crop- and country-specific fertilizer application rates for some years. In this report we show results on fertilizer consumption by crop for the top fertilizer consuming countries, and a downloadable MS Excel file “FertilizerDemandByCropData.xls” shows the complete set of results.

Endeavors Update, Iowa Medicaid Enterprise: Early Addition, Vol. 1, Issue 6, February 15, 2011

The Iowa Medicaid Enterprise (IME) is an endeavor, started in 2005, to unite State staff with “best of breed” contractors into a performance-based model for administration of the Medicaid program.

Endeavors Update, Iowa Medicaid Enterprise: Late Addition, Vol. 1, Issue 7, February 24, 2011

The Iowa Medicaid Enterprise (IME) is an endeavor, started in 2005, to unite State staff with “best of breed” contractors into a performance-based model for administration of the Medicaid program.