Informed Control Over Inputs and Extent of Industrial Processing, June 2005

Stylized facts regarding the industrial process include emphases on obtaining information about and control over the quality of raw materials. We provide a model that establishes conditions under which informed control involves ensuring uniformity in inputs and increased uniformity encourages more extensive processing. We show when the Boltzmann-Shannon entropy statistic is an appropriate measure of uniformity.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Submerged Vanes for Flow Control and Bank Protection in Streams, HR-255, 1984

This study was conducted for the purpose of evaluating a new concept for a bank-protection structure: The Iowa Vane . The underlying idea involves countering the torque exerted on the primary flow by its curvature and vertical velocity gradient, thereby eliminating or significantly reducing the secondary flow and thus reducing the undermining of the outer banks and the high-velocity attack on it. The new structure consists of an array of short, vertical, submerged vanes installed with a certain orientation on the channel bed. A relatively small number of vanes can produce bend flows which are practically uniform across the channel. The height of the vanes is less than half the water depth, and their angle with the flow direction is of the order of l0 degrees. In this study, design relations have been established. The relations, and the vanes' overall performance, have been tested in a laboratory model under different flow and sediment conditions. The results are used for the design of an Iowa-Vane bank protection structure for a section of East Nishnabotna River along U.S. Highway 34 at Red Oak, Iowa.

Micro-Computer Based Linear Scheduling Application for Highway Construction Project Control, HR-339A, 1995

This report describes a new approach to the problem of scheduling highway construction type projects. The technique can accurately model linear activities and identify the controlling activity path on a linear schedule. Current scheduling practices are unable to accomplish these two tasks with any accuracy for linear activities, leaving planners and manager suspicious of the information they provide. Basic linear scheduling is not a new technique, and many attempts have been made to apply it to various types of work in the past. However, the technique has never been widely used because of the lack of an analytical approach to activity relationships and development of an analytical approach to determining controlling activities. The Linear Scheduling Model (LSM) developed in this report, completes the linear scheduling technique by adding to linear scheduling all of the analytical capabilities, including computer applications, present in CPM scheduling today. The LSM has tremendous potential, and will likely have a significant impact on the way linear construction is scheduled in the future.

The Effects of Headcut and Knickpoint Propagation on Bridges in Iowa, TR-541, 2008

The overarching goal of the proposed research was to provide a predictive tool for knickpoint propagation within the HCA (Hungry Canyon Alliance) territory. Knickpoints threaten the stability of bridge structures in Western Iowa. The study involved detailed field investigations over two years in order to monitor the upstream migration of a knickpoint on Mud Creek in Mills County, IA and identify the key mechanisms triggering knickpoint propagation. A state-of-the-art laser level system mounted on a movable truss provided continuous measurements of the knickpoint front for different flow conditions. A pressure transducer found in proximity of the truss provided simultaneous measurements of the flow depth. The laser and pressure transducer measurements led to the identification of the conditions at which the knickpoint migration commences. It was suggested that negative pressures developed by the reverse roller flow near the toe of the knickpoint face triggered undercutting of the knickpoint at this location. The pressure differential between the negative pressure and the atmospheric pressure also draws the impinging jet closer to the knickpoint face producing scour. In addition, the pressure differential may induce suction of sediment from the face. Other contributing factors include slump failure, seepage effects, and local fluvial erosion due to the exerted fluid shear. The prevailing flow conditions and soil information along with the channel cross-sectional geometry and gradient were used as inputs to a transcritical, one dimensional, hydraulic/geomorphic numerical model, which was used to map the flow characteristics and shear stress conditions near the knickpoint. Such detailed flow calculations do not exist in the published literature. The coupling of field and modeling work resulted in the development of a blueprint methodology, which can be adopted in different parts of the country for evaluating knickpoint evolution. This information will assist local government agencies in better understanding the principal factors that cause knickpoint propagation and help estimate the needed response time to control the propagation of a knickpoint after one has been identified.