Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

Strength Development of Concrete Based on Maturity and Pulse Velocity, MLR-95-03, 1995

The effect of curing temperature, in the range of 4.4 to 22.8 degrees C (40 to 73 degrees F), on strength development was studied based on the maturity and pulse velocity measurements in this report. The strength-maturity relationships for various mixes using a Type I cement and using a Type IP cement, respectively, were experimentally developed. The similar curves for early age strength development of both the patching concrete, using a Type I cement with the addition of calcium chloride, and the fast track concrete, using a Type III cement and fly ash, have also been proposed. For the temperature ranges studied, the strength development of concrete can be determined using a pulse velocity measurement, but only for early ages up to 24 hours. These obtained relationships can be used to determine when a pavement can be opened to traffic. The amount of fly ash substitution, up to 30%, did not have a significant influence on the strength-maturity relationship.

Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations, TR-491, 2009

The goal of this research project was to develop a method to measure the performance of a winter maintenance program with respect to the task of providing safety and mobility to the travelling public. Developing these measures required a number of steps, each of which was accomplished. First, the impact of winter weather on safety (crash rates) and mobility (average vehicle speeds were measured by a combination of literature reviews and analysis of Iowa Department of Transportation traffic and Road Weather Information System data. Second, because not all winter storms are the same in their effects on safety and mobility, a method had to be developed to determine how much the various factors that describe a winter storm actually change safety and mobility. As part of this effort a storm severity index was developed, which ranks each winter storm on a scale between 0 (a very benign storm) and 1 (the worst imaginable storm). Additionally a number of methods of modeling the relationships between weather, winter maintenance actions and road surface conditions were developed and tested. The end result of this study was a performance measure based on average vehicle speed. For a given class of road, a maximum expected average speed reduction has been identified. For a given storm, this maximum expected average speed reduction is modified by the storm severity index to give a target average speed reduction. Thus, if for a given road the maximum expected average speed reduction is 20 mph, and the storm severity for a particular storm is 0.6, then the target average speed reduction for that road in that storm is 0.6 x 20 mph or 12 mph. If the average speed on that road during and after the storm is only 12 mph or less than the average speed on that road in good weather conditions, then the winter maintenance performance goal has been met.