The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Integration of Bridge Damage Detection Concepts and Components (3 volumes), TR-636, 2013

This work is divided into three volumes: Volume I: Strain-Based Damage Detection; Volume II: Acceleration-Based Damage Detection; Volume III: Wireless Bridge Monitoring Hardware. Volume I: In this work, a previously-developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. The statistical damage-detection tool, control-chart-based damage-detection methodologies, were further investigated and advanced. For the validation of the damage-detection approaches, strain data were obtained from a sacrificial specimen attached to the previously-utilized US 30 Bridge over the South Skunk River (in Ames, Iowa), which had simulated damage,. To provide for an enhanced ability to detect changes in the behavior of the structural system, various control chart rules were evaluated. False indications and true indications were studied to compare the damage detection ability in regard to each methodology and each control chart rule. An autonomous software program called Bridge Engineering Center Assessment Software (BECAS) was developed to control all aspects of the damage detection processes. BECAS requires no user intervention after initial configuration and training. Volume II: In this work, a previously developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. The objective of this part of the project was to validate/integrate a vibration-based damage-detection algorithm with the strain-based methodology formulated by the Iowa State University Bridge Engineering Center. This report volume (Volume II) presents the use of vibration-based damage-detection approaches as local methods to quantify damage at critical areas in structures. Acceleration data were collected and analyzed to evaluate the relationships between sensors and with changes in environmental conditions. A sacrificial specimen was investigated to verify the damage-detection capabilities and this volume presents a transmissibility concept and damage-detection algorithm that show potential to sense local changes in the dynamic stiffness between points across a joint of a real structure. The validation and integration of the vibration-based and strain-based damage-detection methodologies will add significant value to Iowa’s current and future bridge maintenance, planning, and management Volume III: In this work, a previously developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. This report volume (Volume III) summarizes the energy harvesting techniques and prototype development for a bridge monitoring system that uses wireless sensors. The wireless sensor nodes are used to collect strain measurements at critical locations on a bridge. The bridge monitoring hardware system consists of a base station and multiple self-powered wireless sensor nodes. The base station is responsible for the synchronization of data sampling on all nodes and data aggregation. Each wireless sensor node include a sensing element, a processing and wireless communication module, and an energy harvesting module. The hardware prototype for a wireless bridge monitoring system was developed and tested on the US 30 Bridge over the South Skunk River in Ames, Iowa. The functions and performance of the developed system, including strain data, energy harvesting capacity, and wireless transmission quality, were studied and are covered in this volume.