17 resultados para Intractable Likelihood
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
This project explores the user costs and benefits of winter road closures. Severe winter weather makes travel unsafe and dramatically increases crash rates. When conditions become unsafe due to winter weather, road closures should allow users to avoid crash costs and eliminate costs associated with rescuing stranded motorists. Therefore, the benefits of road closures are the avoided safety costs. The costs of road closures are the delays that are imposed on motorists and motor carriers who would have made the trip had the road not been closed. This project investigated the costs and benefits of road closures and found that evaluating the benefits and costs is not as simple as it appears. To better understand the costs and benefits of road closures, the project investigates the literature, conducts interviews with shippers and motor carriers, and conducts case studies of road closures to determine what actually occurred on roadways during closures. The project also estimates a statistical model that relates weather severity to crash rates. Although, the statistical model is intended to illustrate the possibility to quantitatively relate measurable and predictable weather conditions to the safety performance of a roadway. In the future, weather conditions such as snow fall intensity, visibility, etc., can be used to make objective measures of the safety performance of a roadway rather than relying on subjective evaluations of field staff. The review of the literature and the interviews clearly illustrate that not all delays (increased travel time) are valued the same. Expected delays (routine delays) are valued at the generalized costs (value of the driver’s time, fuel, insurance, wear and tear on the vehicle, etc.), but unexpected delays are valued much higher because they result in interruption of synchronous activities at the trip’s destination. To reduce the costs of delays resulting from road closures, public agencies should communicate as early as possible the likelihood of a road closure.
Resumo:
This paper describes a maximum likelihood method using historical weather data to estimate a parametric model of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures. Parameter estimates are reported for Brookings, SD, and Boone, IA, to illustrate the procedure. The use of this parametric model to generate stochastic time series of daily weather is then summarized. A soil temperature model is described that determines daily average, maximum, and minimum soil temperatures based on air temperatures and precipitation, following a lagged process due to soil heat storage and other factors.
Resumo:
This paper empirically explores the link between quality and concentration in a cross-section of manufactured goods. Using concentration data and product quality indicators, an ordered probit estimation explores the impact of concentration on quality that is defined as an index of quality characteristics. The results demonstrate that market concentration and quality are positively correlated across different industries. When industry concentration increases, the likelihood of the product being higher quality increases and the likelihood of observing a lower quality decreases.
Resumo:
One of the challenges that faces the winter maintainer is how much chemical to apply to the road under given conditions. Insufficient chemical can lead to the road surface becoming slick, and the road thus becoming unsafe. In all likelihood, additional applications will have to be made, requiring additional effort and use of resources. However, too much chemical can also be bad. While an excess of chemical will ensure (in most circumstances) that a safe road condition is achieved, it may also result in a substantial waste of chemical (with associated costs for this waste) and in ancillary damage to the road itself and to the surrounding environment. Ideally, one should apply what might be termed the “goldilocks” amount of chemical to the road: Not too much, and not too little, but just right. Of course the reality of winter maintenance makes achieving the “goldilocks” application rate somewhat of a fairy tale. In the midst of a severe storm, when conditions are poor and getting worse, the last thing on a plow operator’s mind is a minute adjustment in the amount of chemical being applied to the road. However, there may be considerable benefit and substantial savings to be achieved if chemical applications can be optimized to some degree, so that wastage is minimized without compromising safety. The goal of this study was to begin to develop such information through a series of laboratory studies in which the force needed to scrape ice from concrete blocks was measured, under a variety of chemical application conditions.
Resumo:
Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. One tool used to combat red light running is automated enforcement in the form of RLR cameras. Automated enforcement, while effective, is often controversial. Cedar Rapids, Iowa installed RLR and speeding cameras at seven intersections across the city. The intersections were chosen based on crash rates and whether cameras could feasibly be placed at the intersection approaches. The cameras were placed starting in February 2010 with the last one becoming operational in December 2010. An analysis of the effect of the cameras on safety at these intersections was determined prudent in helping to justify the installation and effectiveness of the cameras. The objective of this research was to assess the safety effectiveness of the RLR program that has been implemented in Cedar Rapids. This was accomplished by analyzing data to determine changes in the following metrics: Reductions in red light violation rates based on overall changes, time of day changes, and changes by lane Effectiveness of the cameras over time Time in which those running the red light enter the intersection Changes in the average headway between vehicles entering the intersection
Resumo:
This document provides language that can be used by an Owner-Agency to develop materials and construction specifications with the objective of reducing tire/pavement noise. While the practices described herein are largely prescriptive, they have been demonstrated to increase the likelihood of constructing a durable, quieter concrete surface.
Resumo:
This document provides language that can be used by an Owner-Agency to develop materials and construction specifications with the objective of reducing tire/pavement noise. While the practices described herein are largely prescriptive, they have been demonstrated to increase the likelihood of constructing a durable, quieter concrete surface. Guidance is provided herein for texturing the concrete surface since texture geometry has a paramount effect on tire/pavement noise. Guidance for curing is also provided to improve strength and durability of the surface mortar, and thus to improve texture durability.
Resumo:
This document provides language that can be used by an Owner-Agency to develop materials and construction specifications with the objective of reducing tire/pavement noise. While the practices described herein are largely prescriptive, they have been demonstrated to increase the likelihood of constructing a durable, quieter concrete surface. Guidance is provided herein for texturing the concrete surface since texture geometry has a paramount effect on tire/pavement noise. Guidance for curing is also provided to improve strength and durability of the surface mortar, and thus to improve texture durability.
Resumo:
Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. One tool used to combat red light running is automated enforcement in the form of RLR cameras. Automated enforcement, while effective, is often controversial. Cedar Rapids, Iowa installed RLR and speeding cameras at seven intersections across the city. The intersections were chosen based on crash rates and whether cameras could feasibly be placed at the intersection approaches. The cameras were placed starting in February 2010 with the last one becoming operational in December 2010. An analysis of the effect of the cameras on safety at these intersections was determined prudent in helping to justify the installation and effectiveness of the cameras. The objective of this research was to assess the safety effectiveness of the RLR program that has been implemented in Cedar Rapids. This was accomplished by analyzing data to determine changes in the following metrics: Reductions in red light violation rates based on overall changes, time of day changes, and changes by lane Effectiveness of the cameras over time Time in which those running the red light enter the intersection Changes in the average headway between vehicles entering the intersection
Resumo:
Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. The research team developed this toolbox for practitioners to address RLR crashes. The Four Es—Engineering, Enforcement, Education, and Emergency Response—should be used together to address RLR problems. However, this toolbox focuses on engineering, enforcement, and education solutions. The toolbox has two major parts: Guidelines to identify problem intersections and the causes of RLR at intersections Roadway-based and enforcement countermeasures for RLR
Resumo:
This report, the Full Report, is the culmination of the Task Force’s responsibilities as set out in Executive Order 5, dated October 30, 2007. The Executive Order specifies a number of goals and report requirements.There is a commonly held perception that the use of detention may serve as a deterrent to future delinquency. Data in this report reflect that approximately 40% of youth detained in 2006 were re-detained in 2006. Research conducted by national experts indicates that, particularly for low risk/low level offenders, that the use of detention is not neutral, and may increase the likelihood of recidivism. Comparable data for Iowa are not available (national data studied for this report provide level of risk, but risk level related to detention is not presently available for Iowa). The Task Force finds no evidence suggesting that recidivism levels (as related to detention risk) in Iowa should be different than found in other states. Data in this report also suggest that detention is one of the juvenile justice system’s more costly sanctions ($257 - $340 per day). Other sites and local jurisdictions have been able to redirect savings from the reduced use of juvenile detention to support less costly, community-based detention alternatives without compromising public safety.
Potential-Scour Assessments and Estimates of Maximum Scour at Selected Bridges in Iowa, HR-344, 1995
Resumo:
This report presents the results of potential-scour assessments at 130 bridges and estimates of maximum scour at 10 bridges, in Iowa. All of the bridges evaluated in the study are constructed bridges (not culverts) that are sites of active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations and peak-stage measurement sites. The period of the study was from October 1991 to September 1994. The potential-scour assessments were made using a potential-scour index developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for a study in Tennessee. Higher values of the index suggest a greater likelihood of scour-related problems occurring at a bridge. The estimates of maximum scour were made using scour equations recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. In this study, the long term aggradation or degradation that occurred during the period of streamflow data collection at each site was evaluated. Although the abutment-scour equation predicted deep scour holes at many of the sites, the only significant abutment scour that was measured was erosion of the embankment at the left abutment at one bridge after a flood.
Resumo:
Left-turning traffic is a major source of conflicts at intersections. Though an average of only 10% to 15% of all approach traffic turns left, these vehicles are involved in approximately 45% of all accidents. This report presents the results of research conducted to develop models which estimate approach accident rates at high speed signalized intersections. The objective of the research was to quantify the relationship between traffic and intersection characteristics, and accident potential of different left turn treatments. Geometric, turning movement counts, and traffic signal phasing data were collected at 100 intersections in Iowa using a questionnaire sent to municipalities. Not all questionnaires resulted in complete data and ultimately complete data were derived for 63 intersections providing a database of 248 approaches. Accident data for the same approaches were obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation Accident Location and Analysis System (ALAS). Regression models were developed for two different dependent variables: 1) the ratio of the number of left turn accidents per approach to million left turning vehicles per approach, and 2) the ratio of accidents per approach to million traffic movements per approach. A number of regression models were developed for both dependent variables. One model using each dependent variable was developed for intersections with low, medium, and high left turning traffic volumes. As expected, the research indicates that protected left turn phasing has a lower accident potential than protected/permitted or permitted phasing. Left turn lanes and multiple lane approaches are beneficial for reducing accident rates, while raised medians increase the likelihood of accidents. Signals that are part of a signal system tend to have lower accident rates than isolated signals. The resulting regression models may be used to determine the likely impact of various left turn treatments on intersection accident rates. When designing an intersection approach, a traffic engineer may use the models to estimate the accident rate reduction as a result of improved lane configurations and left turn treatments. The safety benefits may then be compared to any costs associated with operational effects to the intersection (i.e., increased delay) to determine the benefits and costs of making intersection safety improvements.
Resumo:
Often, road construction causes the need to create a work zone. In these scenarios, portable concrete barriers (PCBs) are typically installed to shield workers and equipment from errant vehicles as well as prevent motorists from striking other roadside hazards. For an existing W-beam guardrail system installed adjacent to the roadway and near the work zone, guardrail sections are removed in order to place the portable concrete barrier system. The focus of this research study was to develop a proper stiffness transition between W-beam guardrail and portable concrete barrier systems. This research effort was accomplished through development and refinement of design concepts using computer simulation with LS-DYNA. Several design concepts were simulated, and design metrics were used to evaluate and refine each concept. These concepts were then analyzed and ranked based on feasibility, likelihood of success, and ease of installation. The rankings were presented to the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for selection of a preferred design alternative. Next, a Critical Impact Point (CIP) study was conducted, while additional analyses were performed to determine the critical attachment location and a reduced installation length for the portable concrete barriers. Finally, an additional simulation effort was conducted in order to evaluate the safety performance of the transition system under reverse-direction impact scenarios as well as to select the CIP. Recommendations were also provided for conducting a Phase II study and evaluating the nested Midwest Guardrail System (MGS) configuration using three Test Level 3 (TL-3) full-scale crash tests according to the criteria provided in the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware, as published by the American Association of Safety Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO).
Resumo:
Photographic documentation of crashed vehicles at the scene can be used to improve triage of crash victims. A U.S. expert panel developed field triage rules to determine the likelihood of occupants sustaining serious injuries based on vehicle damage that would require transport to a trauma center (Sasser et al., 2011). The use of photographs for assessing vehicle damage and occupant compartment intrusion as it correlates to increased injury severity has been validated (Davidson et al., 2014). Providing trauma staff with crash scene photos remotely could assist them in predicting injuries. This would allow trauma care providers to assess the appropriate transport, as well as develop mental models of treatment options prior to patient arrival at the emergency department (ED). Crash-scene medical response has improved tremendously in the past 20-30 years. This is in part due to the increasing number of paramedics who now have advanced life support (ALS) training that allows independence in the field. However, while this advanced training provides a more streamlined field treatment protocol, it also means that paramedics focused on treating crash victims may not have time to communicate with trauma centers regarding crash injury mechanisms. As a result, trauma centers may not learn about severe trauma patients until just a few minutes before they arrive. The information transmitted by the TraumaHawk app allows interpretation of injury mechanisms from crash scene photos at the trauma center, providing clues about the type and severity of injury. With strategic crash scene photo documentation, trained trauma professionals can assess the severity and patterns of injury based on exterior crush and occupant intrusion. Intrusion increases the force experienced by vehicle occupants, which translates into a higher level of injury severity (Tencer et al., 2005; Assal et al., 2002; Mandell et al., 2010). First responders have the unique opportunity to assess the damaged vehicle at the crash scene, but often the mechanism of injury is limited or not even relayed to ED trauma staff. To integrate photographic and scene information, an app called TraumaHawk was created to capture images of crash vehicles and send them electronically to the trauma center. If efficiently implemented, it provides the potential advantage of increasing lead-time for preparation at the trauma center through the crash scene photos. Ideally, the result is better treatment outcomes for crash victims. The objective of this analysis was to examine if the extra lead-time granted by the TraumaHawk app could improve trauma team activation time over the current conventional communication method.