Optimal Design of Permit Markets with an Ex Ante Pollution Target, August 2006

In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

Crash Data Validation: An Iowa Case Study, February, 2007

With the quickening pace of crash reporting, the statistical editing of data on a weekly basis, and the ability to provide working databases to users at CTRE/Iowa Traffic Safety Data Service, the University of Iowa, and the Iowa DOT, databases that would be considered incomplete by past standards of static data files are in “public use” even as the dynamic nature of the central DOT database allows changes to be made to both the aggregate of data and to the individual crashes already reported. Moreover, “definitive” analyses of serious crashes will, by their nature, lag seriously behind the preliminary data files. Even after these analyses, the dynamic nature of the mainframe data file means that crash numbers can continue to change long after the incident year. The Iowa DOT, its Office of Driver Services (the “data owner”), and institutional data users/distributors must establish data use, distribution, and labeling protocols to deal with the new, dynamic nature of data. In order to set these protocols, data must be collected concerning the magnitude of difference between database records and crash narratives and diagrams. This study determines the difference between database records and crash narratives for the Iowa Department of Transportation’s Office of Traffic and Safety crash database and the impacts of this difference.

IPERS 2005 to 2009 Experience Study, June 2010

It is a pleasure to submit this report of our investigation of the experience of the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System for the period of July 1, 2005 through June 30, 2009. The set of assumptions recommended as a result of this study will be used in the June 30, 2010 actuarial valuation of IPERS which will be used to analyze the funding status of the system, calculate the actuarial and statutory employer contribution rates, and disclose employer liabilities for financial statements. The purpose of this report is to communicate the results of our review of the actuarial methods and assumptions to be used in the completion of the upcoming valuation. Our recommendations represent changes from the prior methods or assumptions, which are intended to better anticipate the emerging experience of the System. Actual future experience, however, may differ from these assumptions. In preparing this report, we relied without audit on information supplied by IPERS staff. In our examination, we have found the data to be reasonably consistent and comparable with data used for other purposes. It should be noted that if any data or other information is inaccurate or incomplete, our calculations might need to be revised. We would like to acknowledge the help given by IPERS staff in the preparation of this report. We hereby certify that, to the best of our knowledge and belief, this report is complete and accurate and has been prepared in accordance with generally recognized and accepted actuarial principles and practices which are consistent with the principles prescribed by the Actuarial Standards Board (ASB) and the Code of Professional Conduct and qualification Standards for Public Statements of Actuarial Opinion of the American Academy of Actuaries.

Wind Monitoring of the Saylorville and Red Rock Reservoir Bridges with Remote, Cellular-Based Notifications, May 2012

Following high winds on January 24, 2006, at least five people claimed to have seen or felt the superstructure of the Saylorville Reservoir Bridge in central Iowa moving both vertically and laterally. Since that time, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) contracted with the Bridge Engineering Center at Iowa State University to design and install a monitoring system capable of providing notification of the occurrence of subsequent high winds. Although measures were put into place following the 2006 event at the Saylorville Reservoir Bridge, knowledge of the performance of this bridge during high wind events was incomplete. Therefore, the Saylorville Reservoir Bridge was outfitted with an information management system to investigate the structural performance of the structure and the potential for safety risks. In subsequent years, given the similarities between the Saylorville and Red Rock Reservoir bridges, a similar system was added to the Red Rock Reservoir Bridge southeast of Des Moines. The monitoring system developed and installed on these two bridges was designed to monitor the wind speed and direction at the bridge and, via a cellular modem, send a text message to Iowa DOT staff when wind speeds meet a predetermined threshold. The original intent was that, once the text message is received, the bridge entrances would be closed until wind speeds diminish to safe levels.

Recidivism of State FY96 Prison Releases in Iowa, May 2001

Expanding on research first presented in the Iowa Board of Parole FY99 Annual Report, this report presents recidivism data on offenders released from Iowa prisons during State FY1996 (July 1, 1995 – June 30, 1996). The figures presented here differ from those included in last year’s report due to four changes in the study. First, this year’s research includes data on those released from work release facilities, who were inadvertently omitted last year. In addition, the current figures include an additional year of tracking, as a second round of “rapsheets” was obtained to detect recidivism occurring within the last year.2 Also enhancing this year’s report is the availability of national recidivism data through the Interstate Identification Index (III). Further, while last year’s data looked only at the first new offense following release, this year’s study examines the most serious new conviction, resulting in higher felony recidivism rates. One note of caution should be voiced concerning the use of out-of-state records. A review of these records suggests very incomplete disposition reporting in III from some other states. In examining these records, it was not unusual to find a string of serious arrests with no dispositions noted. It was tempting in these situations to conclude that there must have been a conviction at some point, but we have resisted that urge when presenting figures on new convictions. This report is not intended to be an all-encompassing review of recidivism. Rather, it is meant to provide an illustration of the types of recidivism data available on prison releases in Iowa. Readers interested in other analyses of the data are urged to contact CJJP with suggestions and requests.

Automatic Tracer-Dilution Method Used for Stage-Discharge Ratings and Streamflow Hydrographs on Small Iowa Streams, HR-285, 1990

An automatic system was designed to concurrently measure stage and discharge for the purpose of developing stage-discharge ratings and high flow hydrographs on small streams. Stage, or gage height, is recorded by an analog-to-digital recorder and discharge is determined by the constant-rate tracer-dilution method. The system measures flow above a base stage set by the user. To test the effectiveness of the system and its components, eight systems, with a variety of equipment, were installed at crest-stage gaging stations across Iowa. A fluorescent dye, rhodamine-WT, was used as the tracer. Tracer-dilution discharge measurements were made during 14 flow periods at six stations from 1986 through 1988 water years. Ratings were developed at three stations with the aid of these measurements. A loop rating was identified at one station during rapidly-changing flow conditions. Incomplete mixing and dye loss to sediment apparently were problems at some stations. Stage hydrographs were recorded for 38 flows at seven stations. Limited data on background fluorescence during high flows were also obtained.