Biosecurity and Infectious Animal Disease, November 2005

The spatial dimension of agricultural production is important when a communicable disease enters a region. This paper considers two sorts of biosecurity risk that producers can seek to protect against. One concerns the risk of spread: that neighboring producers do not take due care in protecting against being infected by a disease already in the region. In this case, producer efforts substitute with those of near neighbors. For representative spatial production structures, we characterize Nash equilibrium protection levels and show how spatial production structure matters. The other sort of risk concerns entry: that producers do not take due care in preventing the disease from entering the region. In this case, producer heterogeneity has subtle effects on welfare loss due to strategic behavior. Efforts by producers complement, suggesting that interfarm communication will help to redress the problem.

Economies of Feedlot Scale, Biosecurity, Investment, and Endemic Livestock Disease, September 2006

Infectious livestock disease creates externalities for proximate animal production enterprises. The distribution of production scale within a region should influence and be influenced by these disease externalities. Taking the distribution of the unit costs of stocking an animal as primitive, we show that an increase in the variance of these unit costs reduces consumer surplus. The effect on producer surplus, total surplus, and animal concentration across feedlots depends on the demand elasticity. A subsidy to smaller herds can reduce social welfare and immiserize the farm sector by increasing the extent of disease. While Nash behavior involves excessive stocking, disease effects can be such that aggregate output declines relative to first-best. Disease externalities can induce more adoption of a cost-reducing technology by larger herds so that animals become more concentrated across herds. For strategic reasons, excess overall adoption of the innovation may occur. Larger herds are also more likely to adopt biosecurity innovations, explaining why larger herds may be less diseased in equilibrium.

Economic Aspects of Agricultural and Food Biosecurity in the United States, March 2007

Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what one could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. After presenting some facts about US agriculture and food, this paper considers three economic aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are also presented.

Rice Consumption in the United States: New Evidence from Food Consumption Surveys, July 2005

Evidence from recent U.S. food consumption surveys provides new information on the distribution of rice consumption, the characteristics of rice consumers, and the diets of people who consume rice. Recently available data from nationally representative surveys of food consumed by individuals in the United States allowed comparison of consumption today (2001-02) with consumption in the mid-1990s. Data come from the Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (1994-96) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001-02). Rice is consumed by a significant portion of the U.S. adult population. In 2001-02, over 18 percent (18.2 percent) of adults reported eating at least half a serving of white or brown rice in one day of observed intake. This share was slightly higher than that of 1994-96 (17.4 percent). Compared with others, individuals who consumed at least half a serving of white or brown rice in the observed day of intake consumed a smaller share of calories per day from fat and saturated fat; less discretionary fat or added sugar; and more fiber, dietary folate, fruit, vegetables, and enriched grains. Consumers eating rice were more likely to eat a diet that included choices of foods consistent with the 2005 U.S. Dietary Guidelines.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Experimental Use of Calcium Magnesium Acetate, HR-253, 1983

The Iowa Department of Transportation Materials Laboratory personnel announced in early 1982 a process to produce a road deicer consisting of sand grains coated with calcium magnesium acetate (CMA). From that point forward the Iowa DOT began searching for a means of economically producing CMA to their concept. During 1983 and 1984 the first attempts devised for commercially producing CMA were attempted by the W.G. Block Company, Davenport, Iowa, under Iowa Highway Research Board Project HR-253. This first attempt at commercially producing CMA was accomplished by the use of concrete transit mixer equipment. Even though this procedure proved successful in the batch mixing of CMA, the need for higher production rates to reduce the cost per ton still existed. During the fall of 1984, Cedarapids Inc, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, proposed to Iowa DOT personnel the application of their technology to a continuous mixing concept for CMA. Arrangements were made for the continuous test mixing of 60 to 100 tons of CMA/sand deicer. This report covers the production effort, description and results of procedures outlined in Cedarapids Inc's proposal of September 19, 1984. The objectives of this research were: 1. To produce the CMA/sand deicer concept on a continuous mixing basis to Iowa DOT CMA concentration levels. 2. To evaluate the results of preheating the carrying vehicle (sand) prior to CMA ingredient introduction. 3. To analyze the feasibility of production equipment and procedures necessary for portable and/or stationary applications of continuous mixing concepts.

Experimental Use of Calcium Magnesium Acetate, Addendum, HR-253, 1984

The Iowa Department of Transportation Materials Laboratory personnel developed a process to produce a road deicer consisting of sand grains coated with calcium magnesium acetate (CMA). Research project HR-253 was established to explore commercial production of the CMA/sand deicer by an independent contractor. About 60 tons of the deicer was produced at a ready-mix concrete facility and evaluated in the field during the 1983-1984 winter season. The initial contracted production of CMA/sand deicer under research project HR-253 identified two major problems: (1) excessive unreacted lime in the final product, and (2) formation of spherical lumps within the product requiring subsequent size reduction. It was recommended in the HR-253 report that additional deicer be produced as a continuation of the project in order to address these problems and further develop the production process. A contract was negotiated with W. G. Block Co. to produce and deliver 50 tons of additional deicer. This addendum report covers this production effort including descriptions and results of all modifications of equipment and process procedures used.

The Role of Magnesium in Concrete Deterioration, HR-355, Appendix, 1994

In the main report concerning the role that magnesium may have in highway concrete aggregate, over 20,000 electron microprobe data were obtained, primarily from automated scans, or traverses, across dolomite aggregate grains and the adjacent cement paste. Representative traverses were shown in figures and averages of the data were presented in Table II. In this Appendix, detailed representative and selected analyses of carbonate aggregate only are presented. These analyses were not presented in the main report because they would be interesting to only a few specialists in dolomite· rocks. In this Appendix, individual point analyses of mineral compositions in the paste have been omitted along with dolomite compositions at grain boundaries and cracks. Clay minerals and quartz inclusions in the aggregate are also not included. In the analyses, the first three column headings from left to right show line number, x-axis, and y-axis (Line number is an artifact of the computer print-out for each new traverse. Consecutive line numbers indicate a continuous traverse with distances between each point of 1.5 to a few μ-m. X-axis and y-axis are coordinates on the electron microscope stage). The next columns present weight percent oxide content of FeO, K20, CaO, Si02, Al203, MgO, SrO, BaO, MnO, Na20, and C02 (calculated assuming the number of moles of C02 is equal to the sum of moles of oxides, chiefly CaO and MgO), TOTAL (the sum of all oxides), and total (sum of all oxides excluding COi). In many of the analyses total is omitted.