Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

A Generalized Model Study of Scour Around Bridge Piers and Abutments, HR-24, 1953

Four classes of variables are apparent in the problem of scour around bridge piers and abutments--geometry of piers and abutments, stream-flow characteristics, sediment characteristics, and geometry of site. The laboratory investigation, from its inception, has been divided into four phases based on these classes. In each phase the variables in three of the classes are held constant and those in the pertinent class are varied. To date, the first three phases have been studied. Typical scour bole patterns related to the geometry of the pier or abutment have been found. For equilibrium conditions of scour with uniform sand, the velocity of flow and the sand size do not appear to have any measurable effects on the depth of scour. This result is especially encouraging in the search for correlation between model and prototype since it would indicate that, primarily, only the depth of flow might be involved in the scale effect. The technique of model testing has been simplified, therefore, because rate of sediment transportation does not need to be scaled. Prior to the establishment of equilibrium conditions, however, depths of scour in excess of those for equilibrium conditions have been found. A concept of active scour as an imbalance between sediment transport capacity and rate of sediment supply has been used to explain the laboratory observations.