Empirical Tests of Impacts of Rationing: The Case of Poland in Transition, February 2000

This study tests the theory of rationing, examining changes in household consumption behavior during the transition to a market economy in Poland, 1987–92. A model of consumption under rationing is developed and fitted to prereform quarterly data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Virtual prices, prices at which consumers would have voluntarily chosen the rationed levels of goods, are derived for food and housing. The prereform Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with rationing is estimated. Estimates from the virtual AIDS yield plausible values for price and income elasticities. The AIDS model (without rationing) is also fitted to postreform quarterly household survey data for comparison and evaluation. When the two sets of results are compared, the impacts of rationing are consistent with the theory. Own-price elasticities for nonrationed goods are larger after the reform, and there is increased complementarity and decreased substitutability for the nonrationed goods. The results for Poland show a 75 percent decline in real household welfare over the transition and this welfare loss is one-third the value obtained using reported prices.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

08023-013 DMACC Lake Final Report

The DMACC Lake Watershed Improvement project will focus on water quality and quantity as well as channel and lake restoration. Roadway, parking lot, and roof drainage from the west and northwest portions of the campus add significant amounts of pollutants and silt to the lake. Severe channel erosion exists along the northern creek channel with exposed cut banks ranging from 2-10 feet in height devoid of vegetation. Heavy lake sedimentation and algae blooms are a result of accumulated sediment being conveyed to the lake. Most sections of the north channel have grades of between 0.5% and 1%. This channel receives large scouring flow velocities. There are no natural riffle or pool systems. There are five areas where these riffle and pool systems may need to be created in order to slow overall channel velocities. This will create a series of rock riffles and a still pool that will mimic the conditions that natural channels tend to create, protecting the channel from undercutting. Multiple practices will need to be implemented to address the pollutant, silt, and channel erosion. Improvements will be specifically tailored to address problems observed within the north channel, on-site drainage from the west and northwest, as well as off-site drainage to the north of the campus and east of Ankeny Blvd (Hwy 69). The result will be improved quality and quantity of site drainage and a channel with a more natural appearance and reduced scour velocities. Sections of the north channel will require grading to establish slopes that can support deep rooted vegetation and to improve maintenance access. Areas with eroded banks will require slope pull back and may also require toe armor protection to stabilize. A constructed wetland will collect and treat runoff from the west on site parking lot, before being discharged into the lake. This project will create educational opportunities to both students and the general public as well as interested parties outside of the local area for how an existing system can be retro fitted for improved watershed quality.

Development of In Situ Detection Methods for Materials-Related Distress (MRD) in Concrete Pavements: Phase 2, HR-1081, 2005

This project utilized information from ground penetrating radar (GPR) and visual inspection via the pavement profile scanner (PPS) in proof-of-concept trials. GPR tests were carried out on a variety of portland cement concrete pavements and laboratory concrete specimens. Results indicated that the higher frequency GPR antennas were capable of detecting subsurface distress in two of the three pavement sites investigated. However, the GPR systems failed to detect distress in one pavement site that exhibited extensive cracking. Laboratory experiments indicated that moisture conditions in the cracked pavement probably explain the failure. Accurate surveys need to account for moisture in the pavement slab. Importantly, however, once the pavement site exhibits severe surface cracking, there is little need for GPR, which is primarily used to detect distress that is not observed visually. Two visual inspections were also conducted for this study by personnel from Mandli Communications, Inc., and the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). The surveys were conducted using an Iowa DOT video log van that Mandli had fitted with additional equipment. The first survey was an extended demonstration of the PPS system. The second survey utilized the PPS with a downward imaging system that provided high-resolution pavement images. Experimental difficulties occurred during both studies; however, enough information was extracted to consider both surveys successful in identifying pavement surface distress. The results obtained from both GPR testing and visual inspections were helpful in identifying sites that exhibited materials-related distress, and both were considered to have passed the proof-of-concept trials. However, neither method can currently diagnose materials-related distress. Both techniques only detected the symptoms of materials-related distress; the actual diagnosis still relied on coring and subsequent petrographic examination. Both technologies are currently in rapid development, and the limitations may be overcome as the technologies advance and mature.

Field Evaluation of Compaction Monitoring Technology: Phase I, 2004

This Phase I report describes a preliminary evaluation of a new compaction monitoring system developed by Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), for use as a quality control and quality assurance (QC/QA) tool during earthwork construction operations. The CAT compaction monitoring system consists of an instrumented roller with sensors to monitor machine power output in response to changes in soil machine interaction and is fitted with a global positioning system (GPS) to monitor roller location in real time. Three pilot tests were conducted using CAT’s compaction monitoring technology. Two of the sites were located in Peoria, Illinois, at the Caterpillar facilities. The third project was an actual earthwork grading project in West Des Moines, Iowa. Typical construction operations for all tests included the following steps: (1) aerate/till existing soil; (2) moisture condition soil with water truck (if too dry); (3) remix; (4) blade to level surface; and (5) compact soil using the CAT CP-533E roller instrumented with the compaction monitoring sensors and display screen. Test strips varied in loose lift thickness, water content, and length. The results of the study show that it is possible to evaluate soil compaction with relatively good accuracy using machine energy as an indicator, with the advantage of 100% coverage with results in real time. Additional field trials are necessary, however, to expand the range of correlations to other soil types, different roller configurations, roller speeds, lift thicknesses, and water contents. Further, with increased use of this technology, new QC/QA guidelines will need to be developed with a framework in statistical analysis. Results from Phase I revealed that the CAT compaction monitoring method has a high level of promise for use as a QC/QA tool but that additional testing is necessary in order to prove its validity under a wide range of field conditions. The Phase II work plan involves establishing a Technical Advisor Committee, developing a better understanding of the algorithms used, performing further testing in a controlled environment, testing on project sites in the Midwest, and developing QC/QA procedures.