How Much “Safety” Is Available under the U.S. Proposal to the WTO?, November 2005

Critics of the U.S. proposal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) made in October 2005 are correct when they argue that adoption of the proposal would significantly reduce available support under the current farm program structure. Using historical prices and yields from 1980 to 2004, we estimate that loan rates would have to drop by 9 percent and target prices would have to drop by 10 percent in order to meet the proposed aggregate Amber Box and Blue Box limits. While this finding should cheer those who think that reform of U.S. farm programs is long overdue, it alarms those who want to maintain a strong safety net for U.S. agriculture. The dilemma of needing to reform farm programs while maintaining a strong safety net could be resolved by redesigning programs so that they target revenue rather than price. Building on a base of 70 percent Green Box income insurance, a program that provides a crop-specific revenue guarantee equal to 98 percent of the product of the current effective target price and expected county yield would fit into the proposed aggregate Amber and Blue Box limits. Payments would be triggered whenever the product of the season-average price and county average yield fell below this 98 percent revenue guarantee. Adding the proposed crop-specific constraints lowers the coverage level to 95 percent. Moving from programs that target price to ones that target revenue would eliminate the rationale for ad hoc disaster payments. Program payments would automatically arrive whenever significant crop losses or economic losses caused by low prices occurred. Also, much of the need for the complicated mechanism (the Standard Reinsurance Agreement) that transfers most risk of the U.S. crop insurance to the federal government would be eliminated because the federal government would directly assume the risk through farm programs. Changing the focus of federal farm programs from price targeting to revenue targeting would not be easy. Farmers have long relied on price supports and the knowledge that crop losses are often adequately covered by heavily subsidized crop insurance or by ad hoc disaster payments. Farmers and their leaders would only be willing to support a change to revenue targeting if they see that the current system is untenable in an era of tight federal budgets and WTO limits.

Innovative Outstanding Weatherization Assistance News, January 2003. Vol.1, no.1

This is the first of what we hope will be a quarterly newsletter for the Iowa Weatherization Program. The purpose of the newsletter is to share with you information on all aspects of the program as well as spotlight a couple of agencies in each issue. We will provide information on upcoming events, training schedules, monitoring schedules and general news about the program. There will be a section of questions we have received from you and the answers provided. The section called Speed Bumps lists various problems Mike has found during state inspections. Chris Taylor, who is our editor-in-chief, will be contacting agencies for information. This can include staff news, program highlights or any other news fit to print. If there is anything you would like to see included in the newsletter or have information to get out to everyone, please let us know.

Identifying and Implementing Effective Training for Hispanic Craft Workers, American Supervisors, and DOT Inspectors: Phase III of the Hispanic Workforce Research Project, May 2006

The number of Hispanic workers in the U.S. construction industry has been steadily increasing, and language and cultural barriers have sometimes arisen on the jobsite. Due in part to these barriers, the number of fatalities among Hispanics at construction sites in 2001 jumped 24%, while construction fatalities overall dropped 3%. This study, which constitutes Phase III of the Hispanic Workforce Research Project, addresses these language and cultural barriers by investigating the most effective way to deliver training material developed in Phases I and II to Hispanic workers, American supervisors, and department of transportation (DOT) inspectors. The research methodology consisted of assessing the needs and interests of potential and current course participants in terms of exploring innovative ways to deliver the training. The training courses were then adapted and delivered to fit the specific needs of each audience. During Phase III of this project, the research team delivered the courses described in the Phase I and II reports to eight highway construction companies and two DOT groups. The courses developed in Phases I and II consist of four construction-focused language training courses that can be part of an effective training program to facilitate integration among U.S. and Hispanic workers, increase productivity and motivation at the jobsite, and decrease the existing high mortality rate for Hispanic workers. Moreover, the research team developed a course for the construction season called Toolbox Integration Course for Hispanic workers and American supervisors (TICHA), which consists of nine 45-minute modules delivered to one construction company over 11 weeks in the summer of 2005.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads A National Register Study of Pre-1948 Arterial Highways, 2009

This study of Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads has been prepared by the Highway Archaeology Program under the terms of an annual cultural resource surveys contract between the Iowa DOT and The University of Iowa. Under this agreement, state transportation funds are appropriated by the Iowa DOT for The University of Iowa Highway Archaeology Program to locate and determine the significance of cultural resources in the area of proposed highway and transportation improvement work. Cultural resources include archaeological, historical, and architectural sites. The study of Iowa’s Historic Automobile Roads reported herein, including archival research and survey, was conducted between June 2002 and June 2007, by Marlin R. Ingalls and Maria F. Schroeder. The University of Iowa Highway Archaeology Program is solely responsible for the content and accuracy of these reports with respect to site location description, interpretation, and recommendations. Duplicate project reports are filed at the State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO), Community Programs Bureau in Des Moines. Illustrations in this report may have been altered for clarity and sized to fit the page.