The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures, Iowa Department of Transportation, January 2003

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures for Iowa Department of Transportation

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Fiscal Year 2003 Report, Iowa Department of Transportation, January 2004

Report of expenditures from the biodiesel fuel revolving fund for biodiesel fuel used in Iowa Department of Transportation vehicles.

The Effects of Expanding Ethanol Markets On Ethanol Production Feed Markets And the Iowa Economy, June 30 2001

Report produced by Iowa Departmment of Agriculture and Land Stewardship

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Fiscal Year 2004 Report, Iowa Department of Transportation, January 2005

Report of expenditures from the biodiesel fuel revolving fund for biodiesel fuel used in Iowa Department of Transportation vehicles.

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Report Fiscal Year 2005 Report, January 2006

Report of expenditures from the biodiesel fuel revolving fund for biodiesel fuel used in Iowa Department of Transportation vehicles.

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, November 2006

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country’s vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Report, FY 06

Report of expenditures from the biodiesel fuel revolving fund for biodiesel fuel used in Iowa Department of Transportation vehicles.

E85 Retail Station Locations in Iowa

House File 2754, relating to renewable fuel and energy, was enacted on May 30, 2006. The Act established goals and incentives for the use of renewable fuel, including E85 gasoline (85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline). Section 33 of the Act states: Sec. 33. DEPARTMENTAL STUDY – E85 GASOLINE AVAILABILITY. The state department of transportation and the department of natural resources shall cooperate to conduct a study to provide methods to inform persons of the availability of E85 gasoline offered for sale and distribution by retail dealers of motor fuel in this state, including the location of each retail motor fuel site where a retail dealer offers E85 gasoline for sale and distribution. The department's study shall include methods for identifying those locations for the convenience of the traveling public including but not limited to the identification of those locations on roadside signs and on the official Iowa map published pursuant to section 307.14. The departments shall jointly prepare and deliver a report to the governor and general assembly, which includes findings and recommendations, not later than January 10, 2007.

Flexible Fuel Vehicle Report, 2007

House File 2754 requires by February 1 of each year the Iowa Department of Transportation shall deliver a report to the governor and legislative services agency regarding flexible fuel vehicles registered in Iowa.

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets, 2007

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of cornbased ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.

Iowa Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants, January 2006

Maps of Iowa's Biodiesel and Ethanol Processing Plants.

FY 2007 Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Report

The Seventy-ninth General Assembly of the State of Iowa, 2001 Regular Session, passed Senate File 465 which was signed by the Governor on April 19, 2001. This act created the biodiesel fuel revolving fund (Fund) to be used to purchase biodiesel fuel for use in the Department of Transportation's (DOT) vehicles. The act directed that the Fund receive money from the sale of EPA credits banked by the DOT on the effective date of the act, moneys appropriated by the General Assembly, and any other moneys obtained or accepted by the DOT for deposit in the Fund. The act also directed the DOT to submit an annual report not later than January 31 of the expenditures made from the Fund during the preceding fiscal year. This is the sixth annual report under the act. In FY 2007, the DOT purchased from the Fund 14,958 gallons of neat soy oil for $31,615, or an average of $2.11 per gallon. This yielded 74,791 gallons of B 20, which is 20 percent biodiesel by volume. Since the beginning of FY 2008, the Fund has received deposits totaling $59,000 which are being used for continued biodiesel purchases.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.

FY08 Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Report

The Seventy-ninth General Assembly of the State of Iowa, 2001 Regular Session, passed Senate File 465 which was signed by the Governor on April 19, 2001. This act created the biodiesel fuel revolving fund (Fund) to be used to purchase biodiesel fuel for use in the Department of Transportation's (DOT) vehicles. The act directed that the Fund receive money from the sale of EPA credits banked by the DOT on the effective date of the act, moneys appropriated by the General Assembly, and any other moneys obtained or accepted by the DOT for deposit in the Fund. The act also directed the DOT to submit an annual report not later than January 31 of the expenditures made from the Fund during the preceding fiscal year. This is the seventh annual report under the act.