Magnitude and Frequency of Iowa Floods, 1966

Flood records for regular and partial-record gaging stations are contained in the following pages. Each listing contains the station number .and name, descriptive paragraphs pertaining to the station, and a listing of the flood peaks available through the 1965 water year 2/. 2/ A water year is the period from October 1 to the following September 30 and has the same yearly designation as September. Peaks above a base as well as annual peaks are listed. These provide the data for a partial-duration flood-frequency curve. Most of the material is self-explanatory and needs no discussion. However, a few items may be made clearer by the brief explanation which follows.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Safer Construction and Maintenance Safer Construction and Maintenance Practices to Minimize Potential Liability by Counties from Accidents, September 1979

Tort claims resulting from alleged highway defects have introduced an additional element in the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways. A survey of county governments in Iowa was undertaken in order to quantify the magnitude and determine the nature of this problem. This survey included the use of mailed questionnaires and personal interviews with County Engineers. Highway-related claims filed against counties in Iowa amounted to about $52,000,000 during the period 1973 through 1978. Over $30,000,000 in claims was pending at the end of 1978. Settlements of judgments were made at a cost of 12.2% of the amount claimed for those claims that had been disposed of, not including costs for handling claims, attorney fees, or court costs. There was no clear time trend in the amount of claims for the six-year period surveyed, although the amount claimed in 1978 was about double the average for the preceding five years. Problems that resulted in claims for damages from counties have generally related to alleged omissions in the use of traffic control devices or defects, often temporary, resulting from alleged inadequacies in highway maintenance. The absence of stop signs or warning signs often has been the central issue in a highway-related tort claim. Maintenance problems most frequently alleged have included inadequate shoulders, surface roughness, ice o? snow conditions, and loose gravel. The variation in the occurrence of tort claims among 85 counties in Iowa could not be related to any of the explanatory variables that were tested. Claims appeared to have occurred randomly. However, using data from a sub sample of 11 counties, a significant relationship was shown probably to exist between the amount of tort claims and the extensiveness of use of warning signs on the respective county road systems. Although there was no indication in any county that their use of warning signs did not conform with provisions of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (Federal Highway Administration, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978), many more warning signs were used in some counties than would be required to satisfy this minimum requirement. Sign vandalism reportedly is a problem in all counties. The threat of vandalism and the added costs incurred thereby have tended to inhibit more extensive use of traffic control devices. It also should be noted that there is no indication from this research of a correlation between the intensiveness of sign usage and highway safety. All highway maintenance activities introduce some extraordinary hazard for motorists. Generally effective methodologies have evolved for use on county road systems for routine maintenance activities, procedures that tend to reduce the hazard to practical and reasonably acceptable levels. Blading of loose-surfaced roads is an example of such a routine maintenance activity. Alternative patterns for blading that were investigated as part of this research offered no improvements in safety when compared with the method in current use and introduced a significant additional cost that was unacceptable, given the existing limitations in resources available for county roads.

Safer Constrauction and Maintenance Practices to Minimize Potential Liabiliy by Counties from Accidents, Septemeber 1979

Tort claims resulting from alleged highway defects have introduced an additional element in the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways. A survey of county governments in Iowa was undertaken in order to quantify the magnitude and determine the nature of this problem. This survey included the use of mailed questionnaires and personal interviews with County Engineers. Highway-related claims filed against counties in Iowa amounted to about $52,000,000 during the period 1973 through 1978. Over $30,000,000 in claims was pending at the end of 1978. Settlements of judgments were made at a cost of 12.2% of the amount claimed for those claims that had been disposed of, not including costs for handling claims, attorney fees, or court costs. There was no clear time trend in the amount of claims for the six-year period surveyed, although the anount claimed in 1978 was about double the average for the preceding five years. Problems that resulted in claims for damages from counties have generally related to alleged omissions in the use of traffic control devices or defects, often temporary, resulting from alleged inadequacies in highway maintenance. The absence of stop signs or warning signs often has been the central issue in a highway-related tort claim. Maintenance problems most frequently alleged have included inadequate shoulders, surface roughness, ice o? snow conditions, and loose gravel. The variation in the occurrence of tort claims among 85 counties in Iowa could not be related to any of the explanatory variables that were tested. Claims hppeared to have occurred randomly. However, using data from a subsample of 11 counties, a significant relationship was shown probably to exist between the amount of tort claims and the extensiveness of use of wcirning signs on the respective county road systems. Although there was no indication in any county that their use of warning signs did not conform with provisions of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (Federal Highway Administration, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978), many more warning signs were used in some counties than would be required to satisfy this minimum requirement. Sign vandalism reportedly is a problem in all counties. The threat of vandalism and the added costs incurred thereby have tended to inhibit more extensive use of traffic control devices. It also should be noted that there is no indication from this research of a correlation between the intensiveness of sign usage and highway safety. All highway maintenance activities introduce some extraordinary hazard for motorists. Generally effective methodologies have evolved for use on county road systems for routine maintenance activities, procedures that tend to reduce the hazard to practical and reasonably acceptable levels. Blading of loose-surfaced roads is an examples such a routine maintenance activity. Alternative patterns for blading that were investigated as part of this research offered no improvements in safety when compared with the method in current use and introduced a significant additional cost that was unacceptable, given the existing limitations in resources available for county roads.