Empirical Tests of Impacts of Rationing: The Case of Poland in Transition, February 2000

This study tests the theory of rationing, examining changes in household consumption behavior during the transition to a market economy in Poland, 1987–92. A model of consumption under rationing is developed and fitted to prereform quarterly data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Virtual prices, prices at which consumers would have voluntarily chosen the rationed levels of goods, are derived for food and housing. The prereform Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with rationing is estimated. Estimates from the virtual AIDS yield plausible values for price and income elasticities. The AIDS model (without rationing) is also fitted to postreform quarterly household survey data for comparison and evaluation. When the two sets of results are compared, the impacts of rationing are consistent with the theory. Own-price elasticities for nonrationed goods are larger after the reform, and there is increased complementarity and decreased substitutability for the nonrationed goods. The results for Poland show a 75 percent decline in real household welfare over the transition and this welfare loss is one-third the value obtained using reported prices.

Lithuania’s Food Demand During Economic Transition, January 2000

The linear approximate version of the AIDS model is estimated using data from the Lithuanian household budget survey covering the period from July 1992 to December 1994. Price and real expenditure elasticities for twelve food groups were estimated based on the estimated coefficients of the model. Very little or nothing is known about the demand parameters of Lithuania and other former socialist countries, so the results are of intrinsic interest. Estimated expenditure elasticities were positive and statistically significant for all food groups while all own-price elasticities were negative and statistically significant, except for that of eggs which was insignificant. Results suggest that Lithuanian household consumption did respond to price and real income changes during their transition to a market-oriented economy.

Thermoset Composite Concrete Reinforcement, HR-325, Part 2, 1992

This is the second part of the final report submitted to the Iowa Department of Transportation. Part 1 contained a comparison of unaged fiber composite and steel dowels and derivation of the appropriate theoretical model for analyzing the results. Part 2 of this final report covers the theoretical and experimental models for accelerated aging of fiber composite reinforcing bars and dowels cast in a concrete environment. Part 2 contains results from testing of unaged and aged fiber composite dowels and steel dowels, in addition to unaged and aged fiber composite reinforcing bars. Additional tests have been performed on unaged dowels (both steel and fibercomposite) to verify results from Part 1 and to keep the testing program consistent. Slight modifications have been made to the dowel specimens presented in Part 1. These modifications are noted in the Section 3.4 of this report. The flexural modulus of elasticity for the FC dowel bar given in Part 1 of the final report (Table 3. 2) was for the incorrect structural shape (non-circular cross section). The value is corrected and given in Part 2 of the final report (Table 3.4 for the.modulus of elasticity supplied by the manufacturer, and Tables 3. 5 and 3. 6 for experimentally determined modulus of elasticities) • The value in Part 1 was not used for any analysis of the FC dowel bars.