3 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging

em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States


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A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

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The Benkelman Beam structural test of flexible pavements was replaced in 1976 by dynamic deflection testing with a model 400 Road Rater. The Road Rater is used to determine structural ratings of flexible pavements. New pavement construction in Iowa has decreased with a corresponding increase of restoration and rehabilitation. A method to determine structural ratings of layered systems and rigid pavements is needed to properly design overlay thickness. The objective of this research was to evaluate the feasibility of using the Road Rater to determine support values of layered systems and rigid pavements. This evaluation was accomplished by correlating the Road Rater with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Thumper, a dynamic deflection testing device. Data were obtained with the Road Rater and Thumper at 411 individual test locations on 39 different structural sections ranging from 10" of PCC pavement and 25" of asphalt pavement to a newly graveled unpaved roadway. A high correlation between a 9000 pound Thumper deflection and the 1185 pound Road Rater deflection was obtained. A Road Rater modification has been completed to provide 2000 pound load inputs. The basin, defined by four sensors spaced at 1 foot intervals, resulting from the 2000 pound loading is being used to develop a graph for determining relative subgrade strengths. Road Rater deflections on rigid pavements are sufficient to support the potential for this technique.

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Efforts to improve safety and traffic flow through merge areas on high volume/high speed roadways have included early merge and late merge concepts and several studies of the effectiveness of these concepts, many using Intelligent Transportation Systems for implementation. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) planned to employ a system of dynamic message signs (DMS) to enhance standard temporary traffic control for lane closures and traffic merges at two bridge construction projects in western Iowa (Adair County and Cass County counties) on I-80 during the 2008 construction season. To evaluate the DMS system’s effectiveness for impacting driver merging actions, the Iowa DOT contracted with Iowa State University’s Center for Transportation Research and Education to perform the evaluation and make recommendations for future use of this system based on the results. Data were collected over four weekends, beginning August 1–4 and ending October 16–20, 2008. Two weekends yielded sufficient data for evaluation, one of transition traffic flow and the other with a period of congestion. For both of these periods, a statistical review of collected data did not indicate a significant impact on driver merging actions when the DMS messaging was activated as compared to free flow conditions with no messaging. Collection of relevant project data proved to be problematic for several reasons. In addition to personnel safety issues associated with the placement and retrieval of counting devices on a high speed roadway, unsatisfactory equipment performance and insufficient congestion to activate the DMS messaging hampered efforts. A review of the data that was collected revealed different results taken by the tube counters compared to the older model plate counters. Although variations were not significant from a practical standpoint, a statistical evaluation showed that the data, including volumes, speeds, and classifications from the two sources were not comparable at a 95% level of confidence. Comparison of data from the Iowa DOT’s automated traffic recorders (ATRs) in the area also suggested variations in results from these data collection systems. Additional comparison studies were recommended.