The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Strengthening of Existing Single Span Steel Beam and Concrete Deck Bridges, HR-238, Part II, 1985

The unifying objective of Phases I and II of this study was to determine the feasibility of the post-tensioning strengthening method and to implement the technique on two composite bridges in Iowa. Following completion of these two phases, Phase III was undertaken and is documented in this report. The basic objectives of Phase III were further monitoring bridge behavior (both during and after post-tensioning) and developing a practical design methodology for designing the strengthening system under investigation. Specific objectives were: to develop strain and force transducers to facilitate the collection of field data; to investigate further the existence and effects of the end restraint on the post-tensioning process; to determine the amount of post-tensioning force loss that occurred during the time between the initial testing and the retesting of the existing bridges; to determine the significance of any temporary temperature-induced post-tensioning force change; and to develop a simplified design methodology that would incorporate various variables such as span length, angle-of-skew, beam spacing, and concrete strength. Experimental field results obtained during Phases II and III were compared to the theoretical results and to each other. Conclusions from this research are as follows: (1) Strengthening single-span composite bridges by post-tensioning is a viable, economical strengthening technique. (2) Behavior of both bridges was similar to the behavior observed from the bridges during field tests conducted under Phase II. (3) The strain transducers were very accurate at measuring mid-span strain. (4) The force transducers gave excellent results under laboratory conditions, but were found to be less effective when used in actual bridge tests. (5) Loss of post-tensioning force due to temperature effects in any particular steel beam post-tensioning tendon system were found to be small. (6) Loss of post-tensioning force over a two-year period was minimal. (7) Significant end restraint was measured in both bridges, caused primarily by reinforcing steel being continuous from the deck into the abutments. This end restraint reduced the effectiveness of the post-tensioning but also reduced midspan strains due to truck loadings. (8) The SAP IV finite element model is capable of accurately modeling the behavior of a post-tensioned bridge, if guardrails and end restraints are included in the model. (9) Post-tensioning distribution should be separated into distributions for the axial force and moment components of an eccentric post-tensioning force. (10) Skews of 45 deg or less have a minor influence on post-tensioning distribution. (11) For typical Iowa three-beam and four-beam composite bridges, simple regression-derived formulas for force and moment fractions can be used to estimate post-tensioning distribution at midspan. At other locations, a simple linear interpolation gives approximately correct results. (12) A simple analytical model can accurately estimate the flexural strength of an isolated post-tensioned composite beam.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Real Time Performance Measurement for Highway Winter Maintenance Operations – Phase 2, RB03-013, 2014

Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.

Deterioration of Iowa Highway Concrete Pavements: A Petrographic Study, HR-1065, 1999

Major highway concrete pavements in Iowa have exhibited premature deterioration attributed to effects of ettringite formation, alkali-silica expansive reactions, and to frost attack, or some combination of them. These pavements were constructed in the mid- 1980s as non-reinforced, dual-lane, roads ranging in thickness between 200 mm and 300 mm, with skewed joints reinforced with dowels. Deterioration was initially recognized with a darkening of joint regions, which occurred for some pavements as soon as four years after construction. Pavement condition ranges from severe damage to none, and there appeared to be no unequivocal materials or processing variables correlated with failure. Based upon visual examinations, petrographic evaluation, and application of materials models, the deterioration of concrete highway pavements in Iowa appear related to a freeze-thaw failure of the coarse aggregate and the mortar. Crack patterns sub-parallel to the concrete surface transecting the mortar fraction and the coarse aggregate are indicative of freeze-thaw damage of both the mortar and aggregate. The entrained air void system was marginal to substandard, and filling of some of the finer-sized voids by ettringite appears to have further degraded the air void system. The formation of secondary ettringite within the entrained air voids probably reflects a relatively high degree of concrete saturation causing the smaller voids to be filled with pore solution when the concrete freezes. Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) affects some quartz and shale in the fine aggregate, but is not considered to be a significant cause of the deterioration. Delayed ettringite formation was not deemed likely as no evidence of a uniform paste expansion was observed. The lack of field-observed expansion is also evidence against the ASR and DEF modes of deterioration. The utilization of fly ash does not appear to have affected the deterioration as all pavements with or without fly ash exhibiting substantial damage also exhibit significant filling of the entrained air void system, and specimens containing fly ash from sound pavements do not have significant filling. The influence of the mixture design, mixing, and placing must be evaluated with respect to development of an adequate entrained air void system, concrete homogeneity, longterm drying shrinkage, and microcracking. A high-sand mix may have contributed to the difficult mixture characteristics noted upon placement and exacerbate concrete heterogeneity problems, difficulty in developing an adequate entrained air void system, poor consolidation potential, and increased drying shrinkage and cracking. Finally, the availability of moisture must also be considered, as the secondary precipitation of ettringite in entrained air voids indicates they were at least partially filled with pore solution at times. Water availability at the base of the slabs, in joints, and cracks may have provided a means for absorbing water to a point of critical saturation.

Scour Around Bridge Piers and Abutments, HR-30 and Iowa Highway Research Board Bulletin No. 4, 1956

Man’s never-ending search for better materials and construction methods and for techniques of analysis and design has overcome most of the early difficulties of bridge building. Scour of the stream bed, however, has remained a major cause of bridge failures ever since man learned to place piers and abutments in the stream in order to cross wide rivers. Considering the overall complexity of field conditions, it is not surprising that no generally accepted principles (not even rules of thumb) for the prediction of scour around bridge piers and abutments have evolved from field experience alone. The flow of individual streams exhibits a manifold variation, and great disparity exists among different rivers. The alignment, cross section, discharge, and slope of a stream must all be correlated with the scour phenomenon, and this in turn must be correlated with the characteristics of the bed material ranging from clays and fine silts to gravels and boulders. Finally, the effect of the shape of the obstruction itself-the pier or abutment-must be assessed. Since several of these factors are likely to vary with time to some degree, and since the scour phenomenon as well is inherently unsteady, sorting out the influence of each of the various factors is virtually impossible from field evidence alone. The experimental approach was chosen as the investigative method for this study, but with due recognition of the importance of field measurements and with the realization that the results must be interpreted so as to be compatible with the present-day theories of fluid mechanics and sediment transportation. This approach was chosen because, on the one hand, the factors affecting the scour phenomenon can be controlled in the laboratory to an extent that is not possible in the field, and, on the other hand, the model technique can be used to circumvent the present inadequate understanding of the phenomenon of the movement of sediment by flowing water. In order to obtain optimum results from the laboratory study, the program was arranged at the outset to include a related set of variables in each of several phases into which the whole problem was divided. The phases thus selected were : 1. Geometry of piers and abutments, 2. Hydraulics of the stream, 3. Characteristics of the sediment, 4. Geometry of channel shape and alignment.

Safety Benefits of Paved Shoulders, 2009

Single vehicle run-off-road (ROR) crashes are the largest type of fatal passenger vehicle crash in the United States (NCHRP 500 2003). In Iowa, ROR crashes accounted for 36% of rural crashes and 9% of total crashes in 2006. Run-off-road crashes accounted for more than 61.8% of rural fatal crashes and 32.6% of total fatal crashes in Iowa in 2006. Paved shoulders are a potential countermeasure for ROR crashes. Several studies are available which have generally indicated that paved shoulders are effective in reducing crashes. However, the number of studies that quantify the benefits are limited. The research described in this report evaluates the effectiveness of paved shoulders. Model results indicated that covariate for speed limit was not significant at the 0.05 confidence level and was removed from the model. All other variables which resulted in the final model were significant at the 0.05 confidence level. The final model indicated that season of the year was significant in indicating expected number of total monthly crashes with a higher number of crashes occurring in the winter and fall than for spring and summer. The model also indicated that presence of rumble strips, paved shoulder width, unpaved shoulder width, and presence of a divided median were correlated with a decrease in crashes. The model also indicated that roadway sections with paved shoulders had fewer crashes in the after period as compared to both the before period and control sections. The actual impact of paved shoulders depends on several other covariates as indicated in the final model such as installation year and width of paved shoulders. However, comparing the expected number of total crashes before and after installation of paved shoulders for several scenarios indicated around a 4.6% reduction in the expected number of monthly crashes in the after period.