The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Burden of Diabetes in Iowa 1991-2009, Final Report, May 2010

The Iowa Diabetes Prevention and Control Program provides educational opportunities for health care providers via the Iowa Communications Network interactive fiber optic system. The program also certifies diabetes outpatient education programs in Iowa based on minimum criteria for quality programs. In Iowa during the past 20 years, the prevalence rate of diagnosed diabetes increased dramatically among adults: Between 1991 and 2009 the crude diabetes prevalence rate rose by 84%, from 3.8% to 7.0%. Between these years, the age‐adjusted adult diagnosed diabetes prevalence rate increased by 64%, rising from 3.7% to 6.4%. During the 18 years 1991‐93 through 2006‐08, the number of Iowa adults with diagnosed diabetes more than doubled, increasing from 78,000 to 162,000. While the Iowa Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), upon which the numbers cited above are based, provides reliable state‐level self‐reported data on adults with diagnosed diabetes, it is unable to provide estimates of undiagnosed diabetes. National estimates put the prevalence of undiagnosed adult diabetes at about 5%, raising the estimated adult diabetes prevalence rate in Iowa to 12% (280,000 adults) (Cowie,2009). Another 5% of all Iowa adults are estimated to have diagnosed pre‐diabetes, while 25% of all Iowa adults, based on national estimates from the 2005‐06 National Health and Nutrition and Examination Survey (NHANES), likely have undiagnosed pre‐diabetes. (Cowie, 2009)

2011 Diabetes in Iowa Supplement to the 2009 Iowa Chronic Disease Report, October 1, 2012

The Iowa Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a household interview survey of adults that began to include a core question covering diagnosed diabetes prevalence in 1988, is the primary source of data in this Iowa Chronic Disease Report supplemental update on diabetes. Most rates in this supplement are age-adjusted, rather than crude rates. Age-adjusting eliminates differences in rates that are attributable to populations being compared having difference age distributions.