11 resultados para Count data models
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
The Iowa livestock industry generates large quantities of manure and other organic residues; composed of feces, urine, bedding material, waste feed, dilution water, and mortalities. Often viewed as a waste material, little has been done to characterize and determine the usefulness of this resource. The Iowa Department of Natural Resources initiated the process to assess in detail the manure resource and the potential utilization of this resource through anaerobic digestion coupled with energy recovery. Many of the pieces required to assess the manure resource already exist, albeit in disparate forms and locations. This study began by interpreting and integrating existing Federal, State, ISU studies, and other sources of livestock numbers, housing, and management information. With these data, models were analyzed to determine energy production and economic feasibility of energy recovery using anaerobic digestion facilities on livestock faxms. Having these data individual facilities and clusters that appear economically feasible can be identified specifically through the use of a GIs system for further investigation. Also livestock facilities and clusters of facilities with high methane recovery potential can be the focus of targeted educational programs through Cooperative Extension network and other outreach networks, providing a more intensive counterpoint to broadly based educational efforts.
Resumo:
Based on results of an evaluation performed during the winter of 1985-86, six Troxler 3241-B Asphalt Content Gauges were purchased for District use in monitoring project asphalt contents. Use of these gauges will help reduce the need for chemical based extractions. Effective use of the gauges depends on the accurate preparation and transfer of project mix calibrations from the Central Lab to the Districts. The objective of this project was to evaluate the precision and accuracy of a gauge in determining asphalt contents and to develop a mix calibration transfer procedure for implementation during the 1987 construction. The first part of the study was accomplished by preparing mix calibrations in the Central Lab gauge and taking multiple measurements of a sample with known asphalt content. The second part was accomplished by preparing transfer pans, obtaining count data on the pans using each gauge, and transferring calibrations from one gauge to another through the use of calibration transfer equations. The transferred calibrations were tested by measuring samples with a known asphalt content. The study established that the Troxler 3241-B Asphalt Content Gauge yields results of acceptable accuracy and precision as evidenced by a standard deviation of 0.04% asphalt content on multiple measurements of the same sample. The calibration transfer procedure proved feasible and resulted in the calibration transfer portion of Materials I.M. 335 - Method of Test For Determining the Asphalt Content of Bituminous Mixtures by the Nuclear Method.
Resumo:
The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) issued a report in July 2003, based on a sample study of the application of remote sensed image land use change detection to the methodology of traffic monitoring in Blackhawk County, Iowa. In summary, the results indicated a strong correlation and a statistically significant regression coefficient between the identification of built-up land use change areas from remote sensed data and corresponding changes in traffic patterns, expressed as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Based on these results, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) requested that CTRE expand the study area to five counties in the southwest quadrant of the state. These counties are scheduled for traffic counts in 2004, and the Iowa DOT desired the data to 1) evaluate the current methodology used to place the devices; 2) potentially influence the placement of traffic counting devices in areas of high built-up land use change; and 3) determine if opportunities exist to reduce the frequency and/or density of monitoring activity in lower trafficked rural areas of the state. This project is focused on the practical application of built-up land use change data for placement of traffic count data recording devices in five southwest Iowa counties.
Resumo:
A startlingly new development has occurred over the past year: The number of offenders residing in Iowa’s correctional institutions has actually dropped. An ever increasing prison population – in 1990 the prison count stood at 3,842 offenders – reached an all-time high of 8,940 offenders on October 3,2007, an increase of 233% over 17 years. A significant cause for the increase has been longer stays in prison, due in part to the long-term effect of restrictions on parole eligibility. Over the past nine months, however, the prison population has been declining – to 8,573 on July 15, 2008 (not including 129 jail prisoners temporarily housed at ASP and IMCC due to the flooding). This represents a decrease of 367 offenders – or 4.1% - from the October 3, 2007 high.
Resumo:
Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.
Resumo:
Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.
Resumo:
This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 representative pavement sites across Iowa were selected. The selected pavement sites represent flexible, rigid, and composite pavement systems throughout Iowa. The required MEPDG inputs and the historical performance data for the selected sites were extracted from a variety of sources. The accuracy of the nationally-calibrated MEPDG prediction models for Iowa conditions was evaluated. The local calibration factors of MEPDG performance prediction models were identified to improve the accuracy of model predictions. The identified local calibration coefficients are presented with other significant findings and recommendations for use in MEPDG/DARWin-ME for Iowa pavement systems.
Resumo:
This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 representative pavement sites across Iowa were selected. The selected pavement sites represent flexible, rigid, and composite pavement systems throughout Iowa. The required MEPDG inputs and the historical performance data for the selected sites were extracted from a variety of sources. The accuracy of the nationally-calibrated MEPDG prediction models for Iowa conditions was evaluated. The local calibration factors of MEPDG performance prediction models were identified to improve the accuracy of model predictions. The identified local calibration coefficients are presented with other significant findings and recommendations for use in MEPDG/DARWin-ME for Iowa pavement systems.
Resumo:
US Geological Survey (USGS) based elevation data are the most commonly used data source for highway hydraulic analysis; however, due to the vertical accuracy of USGS-based elevation data, USGS data may be too “coarse” to adequately describe surface profiles of watershed areas or drainage patterns. Additionally hydraulic design requires delineation of much smaller drainage areas (watersheds) than other hydrologic applications, such as environmental, ecological, and water resource management. This research study investigated whether higher resolution LIDAR based surface models would provide better delineation of watersheds and drainage patterns as compared to surface models created from standard USGS-based elevation data. Differences in runoff values were the metric used to compare the data sets. The two data sets were compared for a pilot study area along the Iowa 1 corridor between Iowa City and Mount Vernon. Given the limited breadth of the analysis corridor, areas of particular emphasis were the location of drainage area boundaries and flow patterns parallel to and intersecting the road cross section. Traditional highway hydrology does not appear to be significantly impacted, or benefited, by the increased terrain detail that LIDAR provided for the study area. In fact, hydrologic outputs, such as streams and watersheds, may be too sensitive to the increased horizontal resolution and/or errors in the data set. However, a true comparison of LIDAR and USGS-based data sets of equal size and encompassing entire drainage areas could not be performed in this study. Differences may also result in areas with much steeper slopes or significant changes in terrain. LIDAR may provide possibly valuable detail in areas of modified terrain, such as roads. Better representations of channel and terrain detail in the vicinity of the roadway may be useful in modeling problem drainage areas and evaluating structural surety during and after significant storm events. Furthermore, LIDAR may be used to verify the intended/expected drainage patterns at newly constructed highways. LIDAR will likely provide the greatest benefit for highway projects in flood plains and areas with relatively flat terrain where slight changes in terrain may have a significant impact on drainage patterns.
Resumo:
Many transportation agencies maintain grade as an attribute in roadway inventory databases; however, the information is often in an aggregated format. Cross slope is rarely included in large roadway inventories. Accurate methods available to collect grade and cross slope include global positioning systems, traditional surveying, and mobile mapping systems. However, most agencies do not have the resources to utilize these methods to collect grade and cross slope on a large scale. This report discusses the use of LIDAR to extract roadway grade and cross slope for large-scale inventories. Current data collection methods and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. A pilot study to extract grade and cross slope from a LIDAR data set, including methodology, results, and conclusions, is presented. This report describes the regression methodology used to extract and evaluate the accuracy of grade and cross slope from three dimensional surfaces created from LIDAR data. The use of LIDAR data to extract grade and cross slope on tangent highway segments was evaluated and compared against grade and cross slope collected using an automatic level for 10 test segments along Iowa Highway 1. Grade and cross slope were measured from a surface model created from LIDAR data points collected for the study area. While grade could be estimated to within 1%, study results indicate that cross slope cannot practically be estimated using a LIDAR derived surface model.
Resumo:
The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 1-37A as a novel mechanistic-empirical procedure for the analysis and design of pavements. The MEPDG was subsequently supported by AASHTO’s DARWin-ME and most recently marketed as AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software as of February 2013. Although the core design process and computational engine have remained the same over the years, some enhancements to the pavement performance prediction models have been implemented along with other documented changes as the MEPDG transitioned to AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Preliminary studies were carried out to determine possible differences between AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, MEPDG (version 1.1), and DARWin-ME (version 1.1) performance predictions for new jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), new hot mix asphalt (HMA), and HMA over JPCP systems. Differences were indeed observed between the pavement performance predictions produced by these different software versions. Further investigation was needed to verify these differences and to evaluate whether identified local calibration factors from the latest MEPDG (version 1.1) were acceptable for use with the latest version (version 2.1.24) of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design at the time this research was conducted. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to examine AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design performance predictions using previously identified MEPDG calibration factors (through InTrans Project 11-401) and, if needed, refine the local calibration coefficients of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems using linear and nonlinear optimization procedures. A total of 130 representative sections across Iowa consisting of JPCP, new HMA, and HMA over JPCP sections were used. The local calibration results of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design are presented and compared with national and locally calibrated MEPDG models.