The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

High Molecular Weight Methacrylate Sealing of a Bridge Deck, HR-2031, 1988

The Iowa Department of Transportation used a high molecular weight methacrylate (HMWM) resin to seal a 3,340 ft. x 64 ft. bridge deck in October 1986. The sealing was necessary to prevent deicing salt brine from entering a substantial number of transverse cracks that coincided with the epoxy coated top steel and unprotected bottom steel. HMWM resin is a three component product composed of a monomer, a cumene hydroperoxide initiator and a cobalt naphthenate promoter. The HMWM was applied with a dual spray bar system and flat-fan nozzles. Initiated monomer delivered through one spray bar was mixed in the air with promoted monomer from the other spray bar. The application rate averaged 0.956 gallons per 100 square feet for the tined textured driving lanes. Dry sand was broadcast on the surface at an average coverage of 0.58 lbs. per square yard to maintain friction. Coring showed that the HMWM resin penetrated the cracks more than two inches deep. Testing of the treated deck yielded Friction Numbers averaging 33 with a treaded tire compared to 36 prior to treatment. An inspection soon after treatment found five leaky cracks in one of the 15 spans. One inspection during a steady rain showed no leakage, but leakage from numerous cracks occurred during a subsequent rain. A second HMWM application was made on two spans. Leakage through the double application occurred during a rain. Neither the single or double application were successful in preventing leakage through the cracks.

Evaluation of the Consolid System of Soil Stabilization, MLR-86-10, 1987

The Consolid System by American Consolid Inc. is a three product system that, according to product literature, "enables any soil, found anywhere, to be upgraded to achieve better characteristics necessary in improving road life and quality". Consolid was evaluated along with mixes of cement-fly ash and hydrated lime on two soils. The soils were an A-2-4(0) with zero plasticity index and an A-7-8(18) with a 31 plasticity index. American Consolid Inc. recommended an application rate of 0.10% Consolid 444 and 1.00% Conservex by dry soil weight. The application rate chosen for cement-fly ash was 5% cement and 15% fly ash and for hydrated lime it was 6.5%. Testing involved triaxial testing of specimens after water soaking, unconfined compressive strength of specimens before and after water soaking, and freeze and thaw testing of specimens after water soaking. All specimens were compacted to standard proctor at optimum moisture. The cement-fly ash treated mixes had the highest strength and durability followed by the hydrated lime treated mixes.

High Molecular Weight Methacrylate Sealing of a Bridge Deck, HR-2031, Construction Report, 1988

The Iowa Department of Transportation used a high molecular weight methacrylate (HMWM) resin to seal a 3,340 ft. x 64 ft. bridge deck in October 1986. The sealing was necessary to prevent deicing salt brine from entering a substantial number of transverse cracks that coincided with the epoxy coated top steel and unprotected bottom steel. HMWM resin is a three component product composed of a monomer, a curnene hydroperoxide initiator and a cobalt naphthenate promoter. The HMWM was applied with a dual spray bar system and flat-fan nozzles. Initiated monomer delivered through one spray bar was mixed in the air with promoted monomer from the other spray bar. The application rate averaged 0.956 gallons per 100 square feet for the tined textured driving lanes. Dry sand was broadcast on the surface at an average coverage of 0.58 lbs. per square yard to maintain friction. Coring showed that the H.MWM resin penetrated the cracks more than two inches deep. Testing of the treated deck yielded Friction Numbers averaging 33 with a treaded tire compared to 36 prior to treatment. An inspection soon after treatment found five leaky cracks in one of the 15 spans. One inspection during a steady rain showed no leakage, but leakage from numerous cracks occurred during a subsequent rain. A second HMWM application was made on two spans to determine if a double application would prevent leakage. This evaluation has not been completed.