129 resultados para PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS


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In this paper we examine some of the economic forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different growth hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model we make liberal use of GIS (geographical information systems) mapping software to “paint” a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates that amenities, state and local tax burdens, population, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth.

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Statewide and Regional projected industry employment 2002 - 2012

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Demographic and employment information are used by economic developers, market researchers, counselors and curriculum developers for educational institutions, academic researchers, government planners, and private businesses. Occupational information on employment and wages also provides guidance for students making their first career choices and older workers considering a change of profession. In the last decade, Iowans have grown older and more diverse. The median age (2000) stood at 36.6 years, with 38 counties recording a median age of 40 or above. In the last decade, Hispanics accounted for a third of Iowa’s population growth. The most highly educated Iowans were Asians, with 43 percent earning a minimum of a bachelor’s degree. The Iowa labor force has been growing erratically since 1980, but still reached a record 1,663,000 in 2002 before inching downward. In the next 25 years, the labor force will see dramatic changes with the impending retirement of the baby boom generation and the influx of new immigrants and younger college-educated workers. While Iowa nonfarm employment declined by 7,000 workers during 2003, it did show improvement in the second half of the year. In a prosperous year, the Iowa economy generates an average of 2,500 jobs per month. This number was negative during the recession and has been below average this year. National economic events will continue to have a strong impact on Iowa job growth. Occupations requiring higher education are among the higher-paying Iowa jobs. Computer software engineers, computer support specialists, and customer service representatives are expected to be among the faster-growing occupations. Also, the aging population will bring opportunities for workers in healthcare. Occupations requiring higher education are among the higher-paying Iowa