Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2014-2024

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Final Report 2008.

On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.

2010- 2014 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. A major component of the 2010-2014 Program is the full integration of funding allocated to the Iowa DOT from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act). To date, the Recovery Act has provided over $400 million of additional federal funding for transportation in Iowa, including funding that is allocated to local governments and entities. Recovery Act funding will result in a record year for transportation construction in Iowa and the creation and retention of jobs. Opportunities for additionalRecovery Act transportation funding remain and will be pursued as they becomeavailable. While Recovery Act funding will make a one-time significant impact in addressing Iowa’s backlog of needs, it is important to note that there remains a large shortfall in sustained annual transportation investment to meet Iowa’s current and future critical transportation needs. In recognition of this shortfall, Governor Culver introduced and the legislature passed an I-JOBS proposal. I-JOBS will result in an additional $50 million of state funding to reduce structurally deficient and functionally obsolete bridges on the primary road system and approximately $10 million in funding for other modes of transportation including $3 million of new funding to support the expansion of passenger rail service in Iowa. I-JOBS, and the continuing gradual increase in funding due to TIME-21, will complement and extend the benefits of Recovery Act funding and set the stage for addressing the shortfall in annual funding in the next few years. Iowa’s transportation system is multi-modal; therefore, the Program encompasses investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of the Program is the highway section. The FY2010-2014 highway section is financially balanced and was developed to achieve several objectives. The Commission’s primary highway investment objective is stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. The highway section includes an annual average of $104 million for preserving the interstate system; an annual average of $78 million for non-interstate pavement preservation; an annual average of $36 million for non-interstate bridges; and an annual average of $14 million for safety projects. Another objective is to maintain the scheduled completion of interstate and non-interstate capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program and this Program does so. The final Commission objective is to further address capacity and economic development needs and the Commission has done so by adding several such projects to the Program. Construction improvements are partially funded through the current federal transportation act, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The act will expire September 30, 2009. With the expiration of SAFETEA-LU, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues in the out-years of this Program. The Commission and Iowa DOT will monitor federal actions closely and make adjustments to the Program as necessary. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter, or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system. It should be noted that this document is a planning guide. It does not represent a binding commitment or obligation of the Commission or Iowa DOT, and is subject to change. You are invited to visit the Iowa DOT’s Web site at iowadot.gov for additional and regular updates about the department’s programs and activities.

2011 - 2015 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document serves as the Iowa DOT's annual report as required by Iowa Code section 7A.9. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future funding levels of this federal funding is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended five times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension expires December 31, 2010. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts and to be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. In developing the highway section of the program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. In fact, over $1.2 billion is programmed in FY2011 through FY2015 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant investments for interstate modernization on I-29 inSioux City, on I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and on I-74 in Bettendorf/ Davenport. Another highway programming objective reflected in this Program is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program. Finally, with the limited remaining funds the Commission has furthered the investment in capacity and economic development by adding a few projects to the Program. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system.

2012-2016 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future federal funding levels is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended seven times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension will expire September 30, 2011. This leads to significant uncertainty in federal funding; however, it is becoming evident that, in Federal Fiscal Year 2012 and beyond, federal funding revenue will likely be reduced by 25 percent from current levels in order to match revenue that flows into the Highway Trust Fund. This Program reflects this anticipated reduction in federal funding. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts so that Iowa will be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. For 2012-2016, approximately $2.3 billion is forecast to be available for highway right of way and construction. In developing the highway section of the Program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. Over $1.3 billion is programmed in FY2012 through FY2016 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant interstate investments on I-29 in Sioux City, I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport. The FY2016 programming for construction on I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport is the first of several years of significant investments that will be monitored for available funding. Approximately $200 million of the investments on these three major urban interstate projects address preservation needs. In total, approximately $1.5 billion is programmed for highway preservation activities for 2012- 2016. Another highway programming objective is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects. Projects that were previously scheduled to be completed within the previous Program continue on their current schedule. However, due to the reduction of projected federal revenues, the Commission has delayed by one year the initiation of construction of all multi-year non-Interstate capacity and economic development projects that cannot be completed within this Program. These projects are U.S. 20 in Woodbury County, U.S. 30 in Benton County, U.S. 61 in Louisa County, and Iowa 100 in Linn County. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system. It should be noted that this document is a planning guide. It does not represent a binding commitment or obligation of the Commission or Iowa DOT, and is subject to change.

Special Sentence Revocations High, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, May 2010

In addition to their original sentence, persons convicted of sexual abuse, incest or sexual exploitation of a minor also receive a “special sentence” of ten years, or in some cases, life. In its prison population forecast, the Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning noted “an unexpectedly high rate of revocation among those released to the special sentence, particularly given past research that has shown Iowa sex offenders having very low rates of re-arrest and/or return to prison.”

2013-2018 Highway Program Summary, 2012

The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) develop Iowa’s Five Year Highway Program (Program) to inform you of planned investments in our state’s primary and interstate highway system. This brochure summarizes the FY 2013-2017 Program. $2.6 billion is forecast for highway right of way and construction. The Program is updated and approved in June of each year. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future federal funding levels is dependent on having a multiyear federal transportation authorization bill in place. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended nine times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension will expire June 30, 2012.

Iowa in Motion, Planning Ahead State Transportation Plan, May 8, 2012

According to 23 CFR § 450.214(a), “The State shall develop a long-range statewide transportation plan, with a minimum 20-year forecast period at the time of adoption, that provides for the development and implementation of the multimodal transportation system for the State.” The state transportation plan (Plan) is a document that will address this requirement and serve as a transportation investment guide between now and 2040. Iowa’s most recent plan was developed by the Iowa Department of Transportation and adopted in 1997 through a planning process called Iowa in Motion. Much of Iowa in Motion has been implemented and this Plan, "Iowa in Motion – Planning Ahead," will build on the success of its predecessor. The Plan projects the demand for transportation infrastructure and services to 2040 based on consideration of social and economic changes likely to occur during this time. Iowa’s economy and the need to meet the challenges of the future will continue to place pressure on the transportation system. With this in mind, the Plan will provide direction for each transportation mode, and will support a renewed emphasis on efficient investment and prudent, responsible management of our existing transportation system. In recent years, the Iowa DOT has branded this philosophy as stewardship. As Iowa changes and the transportation system evolves, one constant will be that the safe and efficient movement of Iowans and our products is essential for stable growth in Iowa’s economy. Iowa’s extensive multimodal and multijurisdictional transportation system is a critical component of economic development and job creation throughout the state.

Climate Change Impacts on Iowa, 2010, January 1, 2011

Today, perhaps without their realization, Iowans are factoring climate change into their lives and activities. Current farming practices and flood mitigation efforts, for example, are reflecting warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual stream flows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the effects of these changes (such as longer growing season) may be positive, while others (particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events that lead to flooding) are negative. Climate change embodies all of these results and many more in a complex manner. The Iowa legislature has been proactive in seeking advice about climate change and its impacts on our state. In 2007, Governor Culver and the Iowa General Assembly enacted Senate File 485 and House File 2571 to create the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC). ICCAC members reported an emissions inventory and a forecast for Iowa’s greenhouse gases (GHGs), policy options for reducing Iowa’s GHG, and two scenarios charting GHG reductions of 50% and 90% by 2050 from a baseline of 2005. Following issuance of the final report in December 2008, the General Assembly enacted a new bill in 2009 (Sec. 27, Section 473.7, Code 2009 amended) that set in motion a review of climate change impacts and policies in Iowa. This report is the result of that 2009 bill. It continues the dialogue between Iowa’s stakeholders, scientific community, and the state legislature that was begun with these earlier reports.

Development and Demonstration of a Freezing Drizzle Algorithm for Roadway Environmental Sensing Systems, Final Report, October 2012

The primary goal of this project is to demonstrate the accuracy and utility of a freezing drizzle algorithm that can be implemented on roadway environmental sensing systems (ESSs). The types of problems related to the occurrence of freezing precipitation range from simple traffic delays to major accidents that involve fatalities. Freezing drizzle can also lead to economic impacts in communities with lost work hours, vehicular damage, and downed power lines. There are means for transportation agencies to perform preventive and reactive treatments to roadways, but freezing drizzle can be difficult to forecast accurately or even detect as weather radar and surface observation networks poorly observe these conditions. The detection of freezing precipitation is problematic and requires special instrumentation and analysis. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) development of aircraft anti-icing and deicing technologies has led to the development of a freezing drizzle algorithm that utilizes air temperature data and a specialized sensor capable of detecting ice accretion. However, at present, roadway ESSs are not capable of reporting freezing drizzle. This study investigates the use of the methods developed for the FAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) within a roadway environment to detect the occurrence of freezing drizzle using a combination of icing detection equipment and available ESS sensors. The work performed in this study incorporated the algorithm developed initially and further modified for work with the FAA for aircraft icing. The freezing drizzle algorithm developed for the FAA was applied using data from standard roadway ESSs. The work performed in this study lays the foundation for addressing the central question of interest to winter maintenance professionals as to whether it is possible to use roadside freezing precipitation detection (e.g., icing detection) sensors to determine the occurrence of pavement icing during freezing precipitation events and the rates at which this occurs.

Missouri Work Zone Capacity: Results of Field Data Analysis, TPF-5(081), 2011

This report presents the results of work zone field data analyzed on interstate highways in Missouri to determine the mean breakdown and queue-discharge flow rates as measures of capacity. Several days of traffic data collected at a work zone near Pacific, Missouri with a speed limit of 50 mph were analyzed in both the eastbound and westbound directions. As a result, a total of eleven breakdown events were identified using average speed profiles. The traffic flows prior to and after the onset of congestion were studied. Breakdown flow rates ranged between 1194 to 1404 vphpl, with an average of 1295 vphpl, and a mean queue discharge rate of 1072 vphpl was determined. Mean queue discharge, as used by the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM), in terms of pcphpl was found to be 1199, well below the HCM’s average capacity of 1600 pcphpl. This reduced capacity found at the site is attributable mainly to narrower lane width and higher percentage of heavy vehicles, around 25%, in the traffic stream. The difference found between mean breakdown flow (1295 vphpl) and queue-discharge flow (1072 vphpl) has been observed widely, and is due to reduced traffic flow once traffic breaks down and queues start to form. The Missouri DOT currently uses a spreadsheet for work zone planning applications that assumes the same values of breakdown and mean queue discharge flow rates. This study proposes that breakdown flow rates should be used to forecast the onset of congestion, whereas mean queue discharge flow rates should be used to estimate delays under congested conditions. Hence, it is recommended that the spreadsheet be refined accordingly.

Investigation of Warm-Mix Asphalt for Iowa Roadways, TR-635, 2013

Phase II of this study further evaluated the performance of plant-produced warm-mix asphalt (WMA) mixes by conducting additional mixture performance tests at a broader range of temperatures, adding additional pavements to the study, comparing virgin and recovered binder properties, performing pavement condition surveys, and comparing survey data with the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) forecast for pavement damage over 20 years of service life. Further objectives detailing curing behavior, quality assurance testing, and hybrid technologies were as follows: * Compare the predicted and observed field performance of existing WMA trials produced in the previous Phase I study to that of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) control sections to determine if Phase I conclusions are translating to the field; * Identify any curing effect (and timing of the effect) of WMA mixtures and binders in the field; * Determine how the field-compacted mixture properties and recovered binder properties of WMA compare to those of HMA over time for technologies common to Iowa; * Identify the protocols for WMA sample preparation for volumetric and performance testing that best simulate field conditions. The findings of this study indicate that WMA additives do show statistical differences in mixture properties in some of the mixes tested. These differences will not always be statistically different from mixture to mixture. Multiple factors, such as WMA additive type, amount of recycled asphalt material, construction conditions, and mixture variability all play a role in determining the extent of which WMA and HMA mixes differ. Other significant findings of this study include effects of curing, aging in recovered binders from HMA and WMA cores, and the influence of recycled asphalt shingles (RAS) used with WMA. These findings will be of interest to owner agencies and contractors utilizing WMA technologies.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Maximizing the Use of Roadway Weather Information Systems: Final Report, TR-404, 1998

This project was proposed as Phase I of a 2-phase program to evaluate the present use of weather information by Iowa Department of Transportation (IaDOT) personnel, recommend revised procedures, and then implement the resulting recommendations. Midway through Phase I (evaluation phase) the FORETELL project was funded. This project is a multi-state venture that engages the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and proposes to supplant the current weather information-generation and distribution system with an advanced system based on state-of-the-art technologies. The focus of the present project was therefore refined to consider use of weather data by IaDOT personnel, and the training programs needed to more effectively use these data. Results of the survey revealed that two major areas - training of personnel on use of data from whatever source and more precise information of frost formation - are not addressed in the FORETELL project. These aspects have been the focus of the present project.