33 resultados para Flood forecasting.


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This report includes discussions of the general subject of water resources and flood control, including the presentation of facts and arguments which were considered in the drafting of this report. It also discusses various bills presented and a brief explanation of each bill.

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Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.

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An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

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Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

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Flood-plain and channel-aggradation rates were estimated at selected bridge sites in central and eastern Iowa using four aggradation-measurement methods. Aggradation rates were quantified at 10 bridge sites on the Iowa River upstream of Coralville Lake and at two bridge sites in the central part of Skunk River Basin. Measurement periods used to estimate average aggradation rates ranged in length from 1 to 98 years and varied among methods and sites. A direct comparison cannot be made between aggradation rates calculated using each of the four measurement methods because of differences in time periods and aggradational processes that were measured by each method.

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A water-surface-elevation profile and peak discharges for the flood of May 19, 1990, along Perry Creek in Plymouth and Woodbury Counties, Iowa, are presented in this report. The peak discharge for the May 19, 1990, flood on Perry Creek at 38th Street, Sioux City (06600000) is the second largest flood-peak discharge recorded at the streamflow-gaging station for the period 1939-95. The peak discharge for May 19, 1990, of 8,670 cubic feet per second, is approximately equal to the 35-year recurrence-interval discharge. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow- gaging stations in the Perry Creek Basin using flood information collected during 1939-95. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Perry Creek Basin during 1990-93 is also included in the report. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for the three largest floods that occurred during 1939-95 (July 1944, September 1949, and May 1990).

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Record flooding occurred June 15-17, 1998, in the Nishnabotna and East Nishnabotna River basins following severe thunderstorm activity over southwest Iowa. More than 8 inches of rain fell over a large part of Cass County. The rain gage at Atlantic, Iowa recorded a 24-hour total rainfall of 13.18 inches, which established a new official State record for the greatest amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period. The peak discharge was 41,400 cubic feet per second in the East Nishnabotna River near Atlantic, 60,500 cubic feet per second in the East Nishnabotna River at Red Oak, and 65,100 cubic feet per second in the Nishnabotna River above Hamburg. The peak discharge at Atlantic was greater than the theoretical 200-year flood and the peak discharges at Red Oak and Hamburg were greater than the respective theoretical 500-year floods. Information about the basin, the rain storms, the flooding, and a profile of high water marks at selected intervals along the Nishnabotna and East Nishnabotna Rivers are presented in this report.

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The Iowa Flood Mitigation Program is created within Code of Iowa, Chapter 418. The Program seeks to provide funds for flood mitigation projects that otherwise would not be funded. The Flood Mitigation Board is responsible for the implementation Code of Iowa Chapter 418. The membership of the Board is comprised of four voting public members appointed by the Governor, five voting members representing state agencies, and four non-voting ex-officio members of the legislature.

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The Missouri River floods of 2011 will go down in history as the longest duration flooding event this state has seen to date. The combination of above normal snowfall in the upper Missouri River basin followed by the equivalent of nearly one year’s worth of rainfall in May created an above normal runoff situation which filled the Missouri River and the six main reservoirs within the basin. Compounding this problem was colder than normal temperatures which kept much of the snow pack in the upper basin on the ground longer into the spring, setting the stage for this historic event.

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A network of 25 sonic stage sensors were deployed in the Squaw Creek basin upstream from Ames Iowa to determine if the state-of-the-art distributed hydrological model CUENCAS can produce reliable information for all road crossings including those that cross small creeks draining basins as small as 1 sq. mile. A hydraulic model was implemented for the major tributaries of the Squaw Creek where IFC sonic instruments were deployed and it was coupled to CUENCAS to validate the predictions made at small tributaries in the basin. This study demonstrates that the predictions made by the hydrological model at internal locations in the basins are as accurate as the predictions made at the outlet of the basin. Final rating curves based on surveyed cross sections were developed for the 22 IFC-bridge sites that are currently operating, and routine forecast is provided at those locations (see IFIS). Rating curves were developed for 60 additional bridge locations in the basin, however, we do not use those rating curves for routine forecast because the lack of accuracy of LiDAR derived cross sections is not optimal. The results of our work form the basis for two papers that have been submitted for publication to the Journal of Hydrological Engineering. Peer review of our work will gives a strong footing to our ability to expand our results from the pilot Squaw Creek basin to all basins in Iowa.

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Plagued for nearly a century by the perennial flooding of Indian Creek, the City begins construction on a massive channelization project designed to confine the creek to its banks. Funded largely through a grant from the recently established Public Works Administration (PWA), the Indian Creek Channel, upon its completion two years later, would become the largest PWA undertaking in the State of Iowa. Though it did not completely end flooding in Council Bluffs, construction of the Indian Creek Channel did substantially reduce both the number and severity of the city's subsequent floods. It also profoundly impacted the residential and commercial development of Council Bluffs, as well as the city's sanitary conditions. The effects of the Indian Creek channelization, both practical and historical, are still realized today. In 2009, plans for a City road and bridge construction project at the intersection of North Broadway Street and Kanesville Boulevard proposed to replace a 221-foot-long segment of the Indian Creek Channel with a concrete box culvert. In compliance with the National Historic Preservation Act, a cultural resources study was conducted at the proposed construction site, the findings of which concluded that the historic character of the Indian Creek Channel would be compromised by the impending construction. As a means of mitigating these damages, an agreement was reached among the City, the Iowa State Historic Preservation Office, and the Federal Highway Administration that resulted in detailed research and documentation of the historical significance of the Indian Creek Channel. The findings of that study are summarized in this publication.

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In June 2008, the University of Iowa (UI) campus experienced severe flooding and major damage to campus facilities. This report summarizes information provided by the UI on flood recovery as of August 2012.

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Project HR-3 of the Iowa Highway Research Board has been active since October 1, 1950. The project objective is the determination of flood discharge characteristics of small drainage areas. Funds for the project amount to $10,000 per year of which, by cooperative agreement, the Highway Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey each furnish $5,000. Previous reports have explained the set-up of the project and these explanations will not be repeated in this report.

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A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. Thirty-eight selected basin characteristics were quantified and flood-frequency analyses were computed for 291 streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States. A generalized-skew-coefficient analysis was conducted to determine whether generalized skew coefficients could be improved for Iowa. Station skew coefficients were computed for 239 gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States, and an isoline map of generalized-skew-coefficient values was developed for Iowa using variogram modeling and kriging methods. The skew map provided the lowest mean square error for the generalized-skew- coefficient analysis and was used to revise generalized skew coefficients for flood-frequency analyses for gaging stations in Iowa. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression and data from 241 gaging stations, was used to develop equations for three hydrologic regions defined for the State. The regression equations can be used to estimate flood discharges that have recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. One-variable equations were developed for each of the three regions and multi-variable equations were developed for two of the regions. Two sets of equations are presented for two of the regions because one-variable equations are considered easy for users to apply and the predictive accuracies of multi-variable equations are greater. Standard error of prediction for the one-variable equations ranges from about 34 to 45 percent and for the multi-variable equations range from about 31 to 42 percent. A region-of-influence regression method was also investigated for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. A comparison of regional and region-of-influence regression methods, based on ease of application and root mean square errors, determined the regional regression method to be the better estimation method for Iowa. Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa are presented for determining ( 1) regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) weighted estimates for gaged sites; and (3) weighted estimates for ungaged sites on gaged streams. The technique for determining regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams requires determining which of four possible examples applies to the location of the stream site and its basin. Illustrations for determining which example applies to an ungaged stream site and for applying both the one-variable and multi-variable regression equations are provided for the estimation techniques.

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The objective of this project was to assess the predictive accuracy of flood frequency estimation for small Iowa streams based on the Rational Method, the NRCS curve number approach, and the Iowa Runoff Chart. The evaluation was based on comparisons of flood frequency estimates at sites with sufficiently long streamgage records in the Midwest, and selected urban sites throughout the United States. The predictive accuracy and systematic biases (under- or over-estimation) of the approaches was evaluated based on forty-six Midwest sites and twenty-one urban sites. The sensitivity of several watershed characteristics such as soil properties, slope, and land use classification was also explored. Recommendations on needed changes or refinements for applications to Iowa streams are made.