Report on Special Investigation of the Cedar County Economic Development Commission, For the Period December 1, 2000 through July 31, 2005

Other Audit Reports - Special Investigation

Report of Recommendation to the Iowa Department of Economic Development, June 30, 2005

State Audit Reports

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Iowa Department of Economic Development, Agency Performance Plan, 2007

Annual Report, Agency Performance Plan

Adoption Subsidies and Environmental Impacts of Alternative Energy Crops, March 2007

We provide estimates of the costs associated with inducing substantial conversion of land from production of traditional crops to switchgrass. Higher traditional crop prices due to increased demand for corn from the ethanol industry has increased the relative advantage that row crops have over switchgrass. Results indicate that farmers will convert to switchgrass production only with significant conversion subsidies. To examine potential environmental consequences of conversion, we investigate three stylized landscape usage scenarios, one with an entire conversion of a watershed to switchgrass production, a second with the entire watershed planted to continuous corn under a 50% removal rate of the biomass, and a third scenario that places switchgrass on the most erodible land in the watershed and places continuous corn on the least erodible. For each of these illustrative scenarios, the watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model (Arnold et al., 1998; Arnold and Forher, 2005) is used to evaluate the effect of these landscape uses on sediment and nutrient loadings in the Maquoketa Watershed in eastern Iowa.

Economic Aspects of Agricultural and Food Biosecurity in the United States, March 2007

Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what one could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. After presenting some facts about US agriculture and food, this paper considers three economic aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are also presented.

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2006

The Conversion of Four Lane Undivded Urban Roadways to Three Lane Facilities, 2007

In recent years, many traffic engineers have advocated converting four-lane undivided urban streets to threelane two-way left-turn facilities. A number of these conversions have been successfully implemented. Accident rates have decreased while corridor and intersection levels of service remained acceptable. This conversion concept is yet another viable alternative “tool” to place in our urban safety/congestion toolbox.

Report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2007

Report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2007

Economic and Workforce Development Task Force Report, August 2008

The 2008 disasters devastated businesses, farms, homes, schools, non-profit institutions, entire communities, and people’s lives across the state of Iowa. The Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission (RIAC) is charged by the Governor to guide the state’s recovery and reconstruction process. The Economic and Workforce Development Task Force is respectfully submitting this report to be included and considered in the deliberations of the RIAC. While economic and workforce development are two issues that are inextricably linked and critical to Iowa’s rebuilding strategies, each also requires extraordinary attention in determining what needs to be considered in the very immediate and longer-term recovery.

Iowa Department of Economic Development Performance Plan, FY 2009

Agency Performance Plan, Iowa Department of Economic Development

Iowa Department of Economic Development Strategic Plan, 2004

This report outlines the strategic plan for Iowa Department of Economic Development, goals and mission.

Targeted Small Business News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

2009, Volume 2, Number 2

Report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2008

Report on the Iowa Department of Economic Development for the year ended June 30, 2008

Housing’s Economic and Social Impacts, April 2007

Housing is an investment in Iowa’s communities and people. This report investigates the following questions: What impact does affordable housing have • on neighborhoods? • on local and state economies? • on expanding and stabilizing Iowa’s labor force? • on meeting social, individual and community needs?