Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

2015 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. From 1983 to 2014, this monitoring effort was known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Beginning in 2015, the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa was changed to the Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (IFTMP). The IFTMP is administered by IDNR and the tissue analyses are completed at the SHL. Historically, the data generated from the IFTMP have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The IFTMP incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2014 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. From 1983 to 2014, this monitoring effort was known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Beginning in 2015, the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa was changed to the Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (IFTMP). The IFTMP is administered by IDNR and the analyses are completed at the SHL. Historically, the data generated from the IFTMP have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The IFTMP incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2013 Iowa Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2012 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) follow-up, 3) trend, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2011 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) follow-up, 4) turtle, and 5) random.

2010 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the State Hygienic Laboratory (SHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates five different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random, 4) follow-up and 5) turtle.

2009 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up. New for 2009 was the one-time inclusion of snapping turtle tissue as part of the Iowa RAFT sampling program.

2008 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up.

2006/2007 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (RAFT). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans (see IDNR 2006a). The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates four different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, 3) random and 4) follow-up.

2005 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became known as the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2004 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish-consuming Iowans. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different but equally important types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2003 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program; Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of Iowans consuming fish. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different but equally important types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2002 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish consuming Iowans. The Iowa RAFT monitoring program incorporates three different but equally important types of monitoring sites: 1) status, 2) trend, and 3) follow-up.

2001 Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program; Summary of Analyses

To supplement other environmental monitoring programs and to protect the health of people consuming fish from waters within this state, the state of Iowa conducts fish tissue monitoring. Since 1980, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), the United States Environmental Protection Agency Region VII (U.S. EPA), and the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL) have cooperatively conducted annual statewide collections and analyses of fish for toxic contaminants. Beginning in 1983, this monitoring effort became the Regional Ambient Fish Tissue Monitoring Program (the RAFT program). Currently, the RAFT program is the only statewide fish contaminant-monitoring program in Iowa. Historically, the data generated from the RAFT program have enabled IDNR to document temporal changes in contaminant levels and to identify Iowa lakes and rivers where high levels of contaminants in fish potentially threaten the health of fish consuming Iowans.