5 resultados para probability and reinforcement proportion
Resumo:
Purpose: HIV-infected patients present an increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) of multifactorial origin, usually lower in women than in men. Information by gender about prevalence of modifiable risk factors is scarce. Methods: Coronator is a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of HIV-infected patients on ART within 10 hospitals across Spain in 2011. Variables include sociodemographics, CVR factors and 10-year CV disease risk estimation (Regicor: Framingham score adapted to the Spanish population). Results: We included 860 patients (76.3% male) with no history of CVD. Median age 45.6 years; 84.1% were Spaniards; 29.9% women were IDUs. Median time since HIV diagnosis for men and women was 10 and 13 years (p=0.001), 28% had an AIDS diagnosis. Median CD4 cell count was 596 cells/mm3, 88% had undetectable viral load. Median time on ART was 91 and 108 months (p=0.017). There was a family history of early CVD in 113 men (17.9%) and 41 women (20.6%). Classical CVR factors are described in the table. Median (IQR) Regicor Score was 3% (2-5) for men and 2% (1-3) for women (p=0.000), and the proportion of subjects with mid-high risk (>5%) was 26.1% for men and 9.4% for women (p=0.000). Conclusions: In this population of HIV-infected patients, women have lower cardiovascular risk than men, partly due to higher levels of HDL cholesterol. Of note is the high frequency of smoking, abdominal obesity and sedentary lifestyle in our population. (Table Presented).
Resumo:
BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.
Resumo:
Purpose: Combined antiretroviral therapy has dramatically improved HIV-infected individuals survival. Long-term strategies are currently needed to achieve the goal of durable virologic suppression. However, long-term available data for specific antiretrovirals (ARV) are limited. In clinical trials, boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) regimens has shown good efficacy and tolerability in ARV-naïve patients for up to 4 years. The REMAIN study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of ATV/r regimens in ARV-naïve patients in a real life setting. Methods: Non-comparative, observational study conducted in Germany, Portugal and Spain. Historical and longitudinal follow-up data was extracted six monthly from the medical record of HIV-infected, treatment-naïve patients, who initiated an ATV/r-regimen between 2008 and 2010. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients remaining on ATV treatment over time. Secondary endpoints included virologic response (HIV-1 RNA <50 c/mL and <500 c/mL), reasons for discontinuation and long-term safety. The duration of treatment and time to virologic failure (VF) were analyzed using the Kaplan- Meier method. Data from an interim analysis including patients with at least one year of follow-up are reported here. Results: A total of 411 patients were included in this interim analysis [median (Q1, Q3) follow-up: 23.42 (16.25, 32.24) months≥: 77% male; median age 40 years [min, max: 19, 78≥; 16% IDUs; 18% CDC C; 18% hepatitis C. TDF/FTC was the most common backbone (85%). At baseline, median (Q1, Q3) HIV-RNA and CD4 cell count were 4.91 (4.34, 5.34) log10 c/mL and 256 (139, 353) cells/mm3, respectively. The probability of remaining on treatment was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.87) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.76) for the first and second year, respectively. After 2 years of follow-up, 84% (95% CI: 0.79, 0.88) of patients were virologically suppressed (<50 c/mL). No major protease inhibitors mutations were observed at VF. Overall, 125 patients (30%) discontinued ATV therapy [median (Q1, Q3) time to discontinuation: 11.14 (6.24, 19.35) months]. Adverse events (AEs) were the main reason for discontinuation (n =47, 11%). Hyperbilirubinaemia was the most common AE leading to discontinuation (14 patients). No unexpected AEs were reported. Conclusions: In a real life clinical setting, ATV/r regimens showed durable virologic efficacy with good tolerability in an ARV-naïve population. Data from longer follow-up will provide additional valuable information.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen in lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in infants, but there are limited data concerning patients with underlying conditions and children older than 2 years of age. METHODS We have designed a prospective observational multicenter national study performed in 26 Spanish hospitals (December 2011-March 2012). Investigational cases were defined as children with underlying chronic diseases and were compared with a group of previously healthy children (proportion 1:2). Clinical data were compared between the groups. RESULTS A total of 1763 children hospitalized due to RSV infection during the inclusion period were analyzed. Of them, 225 cases and 460 healthy children were enrolled in the study. Underlying diseases observed were respiratory (64%), cardiovascular (25%), and neurologic (12%), as well as chromosomal abnormalities (7·5%), immunodeficiencies (6·7%), and inborn errors of metabolism (3·5%). Cases were statistically older than previously healthy children (average age: 16·3 versus 5·5 months). Cases experienced hypoxemia more frequently (P < 0·001), but patients with respiratory diseases required oxygen therapy more often (OR: 2·99; 95% CI: 1·03-8·65). Mechanical ventilation was used more in patients with cardiac diseases (OR: 3·0; 95% CI: 1·07-8·44) and in those with inborn errors of metabolism (OR: 12·27; 95% CI: 2·11-71·47). This subgroup showed a higher risk of admission to the PICU (OR: 6·7, 95% CI: 1·18-38·04). Diagnosis of pneumonia was more frequently found in cases (18·2% versus 9·3%; P < 0·01). CONCLUSIONS A significant percentage of children with RSV infection have underlying diseases and the illness severity is higher than in healthy children.