Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Outcome after relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in adult patients included in four consecutive risk-adapted trials by the PETHEMA Study Group

BACKGROUND About one half of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia are not cured of the disease and ultimately die. The objective of this study was to explore the factors influencing the outcome of adult patients with relapsed acute lymphoblastic leukemia. DESIGN AND METHODS. We analyzed the characteristics, the outcome and the prognostic factors for survival after first relapse in a series of 263 adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (excluding those with mature B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia) prospectively enrolled in four consecutive risk-adapted PETHEMA trials. RESULTS. The median overall survival after relapse was 4.5 months (95% CI, 4-5 months) with a 5-year overall survival of 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%); 45% of patients receiving intensive second-line treatment achieved a second complete remission and 22% (95% CI, 14%-30%) of them remained disease free at 5 years. Factors predicting a good outcome after rescue therapy were age less than 30 years (2-year overall survival of 21% versus 10% for those over 30 years old; P<0.022) and a first remission lasting more than 2 years (2-year overall survival of 36% versus 17% among those with a shorter first remission; P<0.001). Patients under 30 years old whose first complete remission lasted longer than 2 years had a 5-year overall survival of 38% (95% CI, 23%-53%) and a 5-year disease-free survival of 53% (95% CI, 34%-72%). CONCLUSIONS The prognosis of adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who relapse is poor. Those aged less than 30 years with a first complete remission lasting longer than 2 years have reasonable possibilities of becoming long-term survivors while patients over this age or those who relapse early cannot be successfully rescued using the therapies currently available.

Multiple sclerosis risk variant HLA-DRB1*1501 associates with high expression of DRB1 gene in different human populations.

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DRB1*1501 has been consistently associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in nearly all populations tested. This points to a specific antigen presentation as the pathogenic mechanism though this does not fully explain the disease association. The identification of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for genes in the HLA locus poses the question of the role of gene expression in MS susceptibility. We analyzed the eQTLs in the HLA region with respect to MS-associated HLA-variants obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We found that the Tag of DRB1*1501, rs3135388 A allele, correlated with high expression of DRB1, DRB5 and DQB1 genes in a Caucasian population. In quantitative terms, the MS-risk AA genotype carriers of rs3135388 were associated with 15.7-, 5.2- and 8.3-fold higher expression of DQB1, DRB5 and DRB1, respectively, than the non-risk GG carriers. The haplotype analysis of expression-associated variants in a Spanish MS cohort revealed that high expression of DRB1 and DQB1 alone did not contribute to the disease. However, in Caucasian, Asian and African American populations, the DRB1*1501 allele was always highly expressed. In other immune related diseases such as type 1 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, asthma and IgA deficiency, the best GWAS-associated HLA SNPs were also eQTLs for different HLA Class II genes. Our data suggest that the DR/DQ expression levels, together with specific structural properties of alleles, seem to be the causal effect in MS and in other immunopathologies rather than specific antigen presentation alone.

Altered adaptive but not veridical decision-making in substance dependent individuals.

Drug addiction is associated with impaired judgment in unstructured situations in which success depends on self-regulation of behavior according to internal goals (adaptive decision-making). However most executive measures are aimed at assessing decision-making in structured scenarios, in which success is determined by external criteria inherent to the situation (veridical decision-making). The aim of this study was to examine the performance of Substance Abusers (SA, n = 97) and Healthy Comparison participants (HC, n = 81) in two behavioral tasks that mimic the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making: the Cognitive Bias Task (CB) and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) (administered only to SA). A related goal was to study the interdependence between performances on both tasks. We conducted univariate analyses of variance (ANOVAs) to contrast the decision-making performance of both groups; and used correlation analyses to study the relationship between both tasks. SA showed a marked context-independent decision-making strategy on the CB's adaptive condition, but no differences were found on the veridical conditions in a subsample of SA (n = 34) and HC (n = 22). A high percentage of SA (75%) also showed impaired performance on the IGT. Both tasks were only correlated when no impaired participants were selected. Results indicate that SA show abnormal decision-making performance in unstructured situations, but not in veridical situations.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Common variants of the liver fatty acid binding protein gene influence the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance in Spanish population

SUMMARY The main objective was to evaluate the association between SNPs and haplotypes of the FABP1-4 genes and type 2 diabetes, as well as its interaction with fat intake, in one general Spanish population. The association was replicated in a second population in which HOMA index was also evaluated. METHODS 1217 unrelated individuals were selected from a population-based study [Hortega study: 605 women; mean age 54 y; 7.8% with type 2 diabetes]. The replication population included 805 subjects from Segovia, a neighboring region of Spain (446 females; mean age 52 y; 10.3% with type 2 diabetes). DM2 mellitus was defined in a similar way in both studies. Fifteen SNPs previously associated with metabolic traits or with potential influence in the gene expression within the FABP1-4 genes were genotyped with SNPlex and tested. Age, sex and BMI were used as covariates in the logistic regression model. RESULTS One polymorphism (rs2197076) and two haplotypes of the FABP-1 showed a strong association with the risk of DM2 in the original population. This association was further confirmed in the second population as well as in the pooled sample. None of the other analyzed variants in FABP2, FABP3 and FABP4 genes were associated. There was not a formal interaction between rs2197076 and fat intake. A significant association between the rs2197076 and the haplotypes of the FABP1 and HOMA-IR was also present in the replication population. CONCLUSIONS The study supports the role of common variants of the FABP-1 gene in the development of type 2 diabetes in Caucasians.

DRB1*03:01 haplotypes: differential contribution to multiple sclerosis risk and specific association with the presence of intrathecal IgM bands.

BACKGROUND Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifactorial disease with a genetic basis. The strongest associations with the disease lie in the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region. However, except for the DRB1*15:01 allele, the main risk factor associated to MS so far, no consistent effect has been described for any other variant. One example is HLA-DRB1*03:01, with a heterogeneous effect across populations and studies. We postulate that those discrepancies could be due to differences in the diverse haplotypes bearing that allele. Thus, we aimed at studying the association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility considering this allele globally and stratified by haplotypes. We also evaluated the association with the presence of oligoclonal IgM bands against myelin lipids (OCMB) in cerebrospinal fluid. METHODS Genotyping of HLA-B, -DRB1 and -DQA1 was performed in 1068 MS patients and 624 ethnically matched healthy controls. One hundred and thirty-nine MS patients were classified according to the presence (M+, 58 patients)/absence (M-, 81 patients) of OCMB. Comparisons between groups (MS patients vs. controls and M+ vs. M-) were performed with the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test. RESULTS Association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility was observed but with different haplotypic contribution, being the ancestral haplotype (AH) 18.2 the one causing the highest risk. Comparisons between M+, M- and controls showed that the AH 18.2 was affecting only M+ individuals, conferring a risk similar to that caused by DRB1*15:01. CONCLUSIONS The diverse DRB1*03:01-containing haplotypes contribute with different risk to MS susceptibility. The AH 18.2 causes the highest risk and affects only to individuals showing OCMB.

Fine mapping and functional analysis of the multiple sclerosis risk gene CD6.

CD6 has recently been identified and validated as risk gene for multiple sclerosis (MS), based on the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs17824933, located in intron 1. CD6 is a cell surface scavenger receptor involved in T-cell activation and proliferation, as well as in thymocyte differentiation. In this study, we performed a haptag SNP screen of the CD6 gene locus using a total of thirteen tagging SNPs, of which three were non-synonymous SNPs, and replicated the recently reported GWAS SNP rs650258 in a Spanish-Basque collection of 814 controls and 823 cases. Validation of the six most strongly associated SNPs was performed in an independent collection of 2265 MS patients and 2600 healthy controls. We identified association of haplotypes composed of two non-synonymous SNPs [rs11230563 (R225W) and rs2074225 (A257V)] in the 2(nd) SRCR domain with susceptibility to MS (P max(T) permutation = 1×10(-4)). The effect of these haplotypes on CD6 surface expression and cytokine secretion was also tested. The analysis showed significantly different CD6 expression patterns in the distinct cell subsets, i.e. - CD4(+) naïve cells, P = 0.0001; CD8(+) naïve cells, P<0.0001; CD4(+) and CD8(+) central memory cells, P = 0.01 and 0.05, respectively; and natural killer T (NKT) cells, P = 0.02; with the protective haplotype (RA) showing higher expression of CD6. However, no significant changes were observed in natural killer (NK) cells, effector memory and terminally differentiated effector memory T cells. Our findings reveal that this new MS-associated CD6 risk haplotype significantly modifies expression of CD6 on CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells.

Risk of type 2 diabetes according to traditional and emerging anthropometric indices in Spain, a Mediterranean country with high prevalence of obesity: results from a large-scale prospective cohort study.

Background: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A proper anthropometric characterisation of T2DM risk is essential for disease prevention and clinical risk assessement. Methods: Longitudinal study in 37 733 participants (63% women) of the Spanish EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort without prevalent diabetes. Detailed questionnaire information was collected at baseline and anthropometric data gathered following standard procedures. A total of 2513 verified incident T2DM cases occurred after 12.1 years of mean follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of T2DM by levels of anthropometric variables. Results: Overall and central obesity were independently associated with T2DM risk. BMI showed the strongest association with T2DM in men whereas waist-related indices were stronger independent predictors in women. Waist-to-height ratio revealed the largest area under the ROC curve in men and women, with optimal cut-offs at 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The most discriminative waist circumference (WC) cut-off values were 99.4 cm in men and 90.4 cm in women. Absolute risk of T2DM was higher in men than women for any combination of age, BMI and WC categories, and remained low in normal-waist women. The population risk of T2DM attributable to obesity was 17% in men and 31% in women. Conclusions: Diabetes risk was associated with higher overall and central obesity indices even at normal BMI and WC values. The measurement of waist circumference in the clinical setting is strongly recommended for the evaluation of future T2DM risk in women.

Obesity and survival in operable breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant anthracyclines and taxanes according to pathological subtypes: a pooled analysis.

INTRODUCTION Obesity is an unfavorable prognostic factor in breast cancer (BC) patients regardless of menopausal status and treatment received. However, the association between obesity and survival outcome by pathological subtype requires further clarification. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis including 5,683 operable BC patients enrolled in four randomized clinical trials (GEICAM/9906, GEICAM/9805, GEICAM/2003-02, and BCIRG 001) evaluating anthracyclines and taxanes as adjuvant treatments. Our primary aim was to assess the prognostic effect of body mass index (BMI) on disease recurrence, breast cancer mortality (BCM), and overall mortality (OM). A secondary aim was to detect differences of such prognostic effects by subtype. RESULTS Multivariate survival analyses adjusting for age, tumor size, nodal status, menopausal status, surgery type, histological grade, hormone receptor status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, chemotherapy regimen, and under-treatment showed that obese patients (BMI 30.0 to 34.9) had similar prognoses to that of patients with a BMI < 25 (reference group) in terms of recurrence (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.90 to 1.30), BCM (HR = 1.02, 0.81 to 1.29), and OM (HR = 0.97, 0.78 to 1.19). Patients with severe obesity (BMI ≥ 35) had a significantly increased risk of recurrence (HR = 1.26, 1.00 to 1.59, P = 0.048), BCM (HR = 1.32, 1.00 to 1.74, P = 0.050), and OM (HR = 1.35, 1.06 to 1.71, P = 0.016) compared to our reference group. The prognostic effect of severe obesity did not vary by subtype. CONCLUSIONS Severely obese patients treated with anthracyclines and taxanes present a worse prognosis regarding recurrence, BCM, and OM than patients with BMI < 25. The magnitude of the harmful effect of BMI on survival-related outcomes was similar across subtypes.

Epidemiological and clinical data of hospitalizations associated with respiratory syncytial virus infection in children under 5 years of age in Spain: FIVE multicenter study.

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen in lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in infants, but there are limited data concerning patients with underlying conditions and children older than 2 years of age. METHODS We have designed a prospective observational multicenter national study performed in 26 Spanish hospitals (December 2011-March 2012). Investigational cases were defined as children with underlying chronic diseases and were compared with a group of previously healthy children (proportion 1:2). Clinical data were compared between the groups. RESULTS A total of 1763 children hospitalized due to RSV infection during the inclusion period were analyzed. Of them, 225 cases and 460 healthy children were enrolled in the study. Underlying diseases observed were respiratory (64%), cardiovascular (25%), and neurologic (12%), as well as chromosomal abnormalities (7·5%), immunodeficiencies (6·7%), and inborn errors of metabolism (3·5%). Cases were statistically older than previously healthy children (average age: 16·3 versus 5·5 months). Cases experienced hypoxemia more frequently (P < 0·001), but patients with respiratory diseases required oxygen therapy more often (OR: 2·99; 95% CI: 1·03-8·65). Mechanical ventilation was used more in patients with cardiac diseases (OR: 3·0; 95% CI: 1·07-8·44) and in those with inborn errors of metabolism (OR: 12·27; 95% CI: 2·11-71·47). This subgroup showed a higher risk of admission to the PICU (OR: 6·7, 95% CI: 1·18-38·04). Diagnosis of pneumonia was more frequently found in cases (18·2% versus 9·3%; P < 0·01). CONCLUSIONS A significant percentage of children with RSV infection have underlying diseases and the illness severity is higher than in healthy children.

The role of polymerase chain reaction of high-risk human papilloma virus in the screening of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in the anal mucosa of human immunodeficiency virus-positive males having sex with males.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the advantages of cytology and PCR of high-risk human papilloma virus (PCR HR-HPV) infection in biopsy-derived diagnosis of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL = AIN2/AIN3) in HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). METHODS This is a single-centered study conducted between May 2010 and May 2014 in patients (n = 201, mean age 37 years) recruited from our outpatient clinic. Samples of anal canal mucosa were taken into liquid medium for PCR HPV analysis and for cytology. Anoscopy was performed for histology evaluation. RESULTS Anoscopy showed 33.8% were normal, 47.8% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), and 18.4% HSIL; 80.2% had HR-HPV. PCR of HR-HPV had greater sensitivity than did cytology (88.8% vs. 75.7%) in HSIL screening, with similar positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 20.3 vs. 22.9 and 89.7 vs. 88.1, respectively. Combining both tests increased the sensitivity and NPV of HSIL diagnosis to 100%. Correlation of cytology vs. histology was, generally, very low and PCR of HR-HPV vs. histology was non-existent (<0.2) or low (<0.4). Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve analysis of cytology and PCR HR-HPV for the diagnosis of HSIL was poor (<0.6). Multivariate regression analysis showed protective factors against HSIL were: viral suppression (OR: 0.312; 95%CI: 0.099-0.984), and/or syphilis infection (OR: 0.193; 95%CI: 0.045-0.827). HSIL risk was associated with HPV-68 genotype (OR: 20.1; 95%CI: 2.04-197.82). CONCLUSIONS When cytology and PCR HR-HPV findings are normal, the diagnosis of pre-malignant HSIL can be reliably ruled-out in HIV-positive patients. HPV suppression with treatment protects against the appearance of HSIL.