The sustainability of a Spanish Regional Virtual Library

Objectives: The Andalusian Health e-Library (BV-SSPA) is the National Health Library in the region of Andalusia (Spain). It is a corporate hospital library created in 2006. The year 2012 is a turning point for the Spanish economy, and the BV-SSPA has to demonstrate that it is cost-effective and sustainable. Methods: Andalusia is a wide Spanish region with more than 8 million inhabitants, more than 100,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary health care centers, and 28 centers for nonmedical attention purposes, and the BV-SSPA was created to cover all these health services. It was appointed the only intermediary for contracting electronic resources destined to the Andalusian Health System. Hospitals are not allowed to subscribe any resources, and the same services are offered for the whole system. Results: In 2011, the BV-SSPA reached the biggest electronic health sciences resource collection in Spain: a total amount of 2,431 subscribed titles, besides 8 databases and other scientific information resources. The following goals were also achieved: • Cost-effectiveness: In 2011, the BV-SSPA represented a saving percentage of 25.42% compared to the individual hospital subscription costs if they would have continued their contracting. • Efficiency: Central purchasing has meant for the Andalusian health professionals, the democracy of research resource access. Some services were also created: • integrated and safe remote access to all the library resources independent of the user’s location • citizenship website, where the resources for citizenship are grouped • Centralized Document Supply Service, focusing all the article orders from and for the Andalusian Health System • institutional repository, which contains the whole intellectual, scientific production generated by the Andalusian health professionals • computer application to study the Andalusian health system scientific production • Social media as instrument for communicating with users • science web, a defined space for researchers. Conclusions: Although Andalusia is facing a dreadful economic situation, the BV-SSPA has demonstrated its sustainability: • For 2012 renewals, it carried out a statistics study allowing obtaining enough data for deciding which titles were not being discharged by users. • Titles with no discharges or without impact factor were rejected after strong negotiation with suppliers, as the BV-SSPA after 6 years on, is considered a strong dealer by them. • This meant savings of 14% from the original budget for 2012, which allowed the continuity of the BV-SSPA without decreasing the quality offered to their users.

How to manage a virtual library?

Introduction. The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) was created in June 2006, after being determined by the II Quality Plan in the key process Guarantee the Knowledge Exchange into the Health System which was established by the Strategy IV, Knowledge Management, 2005-2008. It is a government strategy with its own budget and management with the aim of rationalizing the subscriptions into the Andalusian Health System and democratizing the health professional access to qualify scientific information, regardless of the professional workplace. Andalusia is a wide region with more than 8 million inhabitants, more than 90,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary healthcare centres, and 12 centres for non-medical attention purposes, and the Virtual Library was created to cover all this Health Services. Before the creation of the BV-SSPA every centre had its own budget and management decisions concerning scientific resources, with the creation of the BV-SSPA both management and budget were centralized. Objectives. With this work we pretend to analyze if the results after these five years have reached the expectations from an economic point of view and determine if really we can offer a benefit to the Andalusian Professional and Society in general. We will demonstrate the following: - The BV-SSPA supposed a cost reduction. It meant cost-effectiveness. - It resulted in Economics of Scale, as we have every year more resources and services investing a minor proportional amount of money. - In terms of Efficiency it implemented more services than the System had before its creation, we a lower budget. Methods. The BV-SSPA was appointed the only intermediary for contracting electronic resources destined to the Andalusian Health System. This had some consequences which should be analyzed: - Hospitals were not allowed to subscribe any resources. - Services offered for the whole System. - A remote access system was created. - Tools to give more visibility to the Public Health System were developed. - Negotiations techniques changed as the BV-SSPA is stronger than individual hospitals. Results. - The amount of 2,431 electronic reviews, 8 data bases and other scientific information resources at the disposal of the Andalusian Health System Professionals and available worldwide requiring only an internet connection. Before the BV-SSPA, 5,267 titles were subscribed by hospital and 2,967 of them were subscribed repeatedly (by two or more hospitals), this represented more than 55%. The rationalization of the subscription investment has been reached. - The establishment of several important scientific services for the whole territory of Andalusia, not only big hospitals. - The use of appropriate tools through a Web 2.0 and Social Media to be acknowledged by most National Health Professionals. Conclusions. It has been demonstrated that the BV-SSPA has become the Central Unit for purchasing, offering librarian services and a reference for users in terms of knowledge management, but from the point of view of business it has also obtained the following results: - Cost-Effectiveness: Its budget for subscriptions is lower than the hospital former one in a 30% and now more electronic resources are available. - Economics of Scale: Near 95,000 health professionals can access this Virtual Library in 2010. Before its creation Professionals for small hospital and Primary Care centres were not able to access to scientific information subscribed by big hospitals. - Efficiency Besides the central electronic purchasing, services were created for the System, without increasing the expenses: - Remote access to all the library resources independent of the user’s location. The BV-SSPA usage increased in a 147% in 2008, when it was installed. - The Document Supply Service implemented in 2009. - The Institutional Repository which contains the whole intellectual, scientific production generated by the Andalusian Public Health Professionals as a result of their healthcare, research or managing activity. - The creation of an application developed by the BV-SSPA to study the Andalusian Health System Scientific Production. - The visibility of the Andalusian Health System reached thanks to the BV-SSPA, through the numerous events in which it participates and organizes such as the 2nd. European National Digital Libraries of Health Conferences and the National Conference of Health Science Information and Documentation held in Cadiz in 2010; and its profile in social media where it can be contacted by citizens and health professionals all over the world. - Negotiation with electronic resource suppliers is much more advantageous as the BV-SSPA is stronger to deal with them thanks to its consolidated budget, its managing independence and its visibility.

The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library. Four years on

The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) set up in June 2006 was determined by the II Quality Plan 2005-2008. It consists of a regional government action with the aim of democratizing the health professional access to quality scientific information, regardless of the professional workplace. Andalusia is a region with more than 8 million inhabitants, with 92,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary healthcare centres, and 10 centres for non-medical attention purposes. • To obtain documentary resources for health professionals. • To help citizens to find health information. • To coordinate the Andalusian Health Documentary centres. • To establish strategic agreements with organizations. • To contribute to the Knowledge Management Development • The BV-SSPA acquires in a centralised way, all of the information resources for the whole system. • It offers services for all professionals: o Document Supply Service o Online Learning o User service • Remote access to these resources and services. • Communication and marketing plan to promote the knowledge and use of the BV-SSPA. Presently the BV-SSPA has reached: • The subscription of 2,431 electronic reviews, 8 data bases and other scientific information resources. • The establishment of the Document Supply Service, which focuses all the article orders from and for the Andalusian Public Health System. • The starting up for the online learning platform. • The introduction of the user service and virtual reference service in beta mode. • The use of appropriate tools, as the meta-researcher and the link resolver, which allow the presentation of resources and services in a tidy, easily findable way, through a Web 2.0 page where the user can take part with his contributions and where his offers and suggestion are gathered. • Access to the resources, for the Andalusian Health Professionals worldwide requiring only an internet connection. Andalusian Health Professionals have access to the greatest Health Science Electronic Resources Collection in Spain. The BV-SSPA has become the undisputed medium for the Health Research and Clinical Healthcare in our region, being consolidated as the Knowledge Manager into the Andalusian Public Health System. In 2010, it faces new projects such as the institutional repository creation, HypatiaSalud; the analysis of our research activity; and the drafting of a normalised licence model for the contracting of electronic resources.

Digital inmigrants and digital natives expectation collection in the Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library: communication with our users

The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) provides access to health information resources and services to healthcare professionals through its Website. This virtual environment demands higher users’ knowledge in order to satisfy of the need of information of our users, as digital natives as digital immigrants, improving at the same time the communication with all of them. 1. To collect clients' views and expectations according to their nature of digital natives and immigrants. 2. To know our online reputation. A Collecting User Expectation Questionnaire will be built, taking into account the segmentation of the BV-SSPA users’ professional groups of the Andalusian Public Health System. A pilot test will be run to check the survey dimensions and items about practices, attitudes and knowledge of our users. Two Quality Function Deployment (QFD) matrices will enable the BV-SSPA services to be targeted to our digital natives or digital immigrants, according to their nature, finding the best way to satisfy their information needs. We provide feedback on BV-SSPA: users can have the opportunity to post feedback about the site via the 'Contact us' section and comment about their experience. And Web 2.0 is a shop window, providing the opportunity to show the comments; and through time, our online reputation will be built, but the BV-SSPA must manage its own personal branding. Web 2.0 tools are a driver of improvement, because they provide a key source of insight into people's attitudes. Besides, the BV-SSPA digital identity will be analyzed through indicators like major search engine referrals breakdown, top referring sites (non search engines), or top search engine referral phrases, among others. Definition of digital native and digital immigrant profiles of the BV-SSPA, and their difference, will be explained by their expectations. The design of the two QFD matrices will illustrate in just one graph the requirements of both groups for tackling digital abilities and inequalities. The BV-SSPA could deliver information and services through alternative channels. On the other hand, we are developing a strategy to identify, to measure and to manage a digital identity through communication with the user and to find out our online reputation. With the use of different tools from quantitative and qualitative methodology, and the opportunities offered by Web 2.0 tools, the BV-SSPA will know the expectations of their users as a first step to satisfy their necessities. Personalization is pivotal to the success of the Site, delivering tailored content to individuals based on their recorded preferences. The valuable user research can be used during new product development and redesign. Besides positive interaction let us build trust, show authenticity, and foster loyalty: we improve with effort, communication and show.

National Health System Virtual Library Viability Project (Spain)

Introduction: The ICT progress and development are making the set up of virtual libraries easier, with great advantages for users in terms of immediate access to vast amounts of library information, online resources, and services. Most of the Autonomous Spanish Regions are presently working on the establishment of virtual libraries with the aim of optimising economic resources destined to subscribe bibliographic information sources and offering qualified documentary services to Public Health System Professionals. The Ministry of Health and Social Policy, an institution unifying health matters, issued this Project to study the National Health System Virtual Library creation viability, in order to guarantee relevant scientific information access equity. Objectives: - To study the National Health System (NHS) Virtual Library set up viability. - To elaborate the Spanish territory health information resource map. - To identify the appropriate technological model. - To identify the documentary services to be offered. - To identify the more optimum functional, structural model. - To identify the economic model. Method: - To create a chart organization for the project´s management. - To organize Work groups. - To elaborate a standardised survey model for the libraries of the autonomous regions. Results: - Identification of the different Autonomous Region libraries of health models. - Recommendations for the NHS Virtual Library: - Functional, structural model - Technological model - Financial-economic model Conclusions: The fact that the Virtual Library would be an invaluable space for access to quality scientific information, as well as that the minimum services could be offered to every NHS user regardless of geographical situation, is confirmed. Accordingly, we thought about three different models to develop the Virtual Library, depending on this initial analysis, which will allow us to establish the most suitable model for the Spanish National Health System, considering its economic, functional and technological recommendations. It would be necessary to do a study for the NHS Virtual Library Set Up following the recommendations arising from this Project.

Hidratos de carbono: actualización de su papel en la diabetes mellitus y la enfermedad metabólica.

BACKGROUND: There is a prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM), unknown DM and stress hyperglycemia among hospital patients, and the nutritional treatment is a key part of care, where carbohydrates (CH) intake is a controversial issue. There is also a discussion on the increase of prevalence for DM, obesity and metabolic disease with refined CH or sugar. OBJECTIVES: This review examines the recommendations from different scientific societies about the percentage of CH in the total calorie intake of the diabetic patient, the CH value in the glycemic index and glycemic load, the new CH included in enteral formulae and the association of refined CH with the high prevalence of DM and metabolic disease. METHODS: Systematic review of literature using the electronic scientific databases Pubmed, Science Direct, Scielo, Scopus and Medline. CONCLUSIONS: Scientific societies are flexible about the CH intake in the diet of diabetic patients, suggesting to customize it according to each metabolic profile. Using the glycemic index and glycemic load can provide an extra benefit in the postprandial glycemic control. The new diabetes-specific enteral formulae, with fructooligosaccharides, resistant maltodextrins and fructose-free show efficacy in improving the glycemic control, although more controlled and long-term studies are needed. There is still some controversy about the links between sugar intake and DM, obesity and metabolic disease, although this relationship would be more linked to an increase of the total calorie intake than to a specific nutrient. .

Genome-wide association study of multiple sclerosis confirms a novel locus at 5p13.1.

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is the most common progressive and disabling neurological condition affecting young adults in the world today. From a genetic point of view, MS is a complex disorder resulting from the combination of genetic and non-genetic factors. We aimed to identify previously unidentified loci conducting a new GWAS of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in a sample of 296 MS cases and 801 controls from the Spanish population. Meta-analysis of our data in combination with previous GWAS was done. A total of 17 GWAS-significant SNPs, corresponding to three different loci were identified:HLA, IL2RA, and 5p13.1. All three have been previously reported as GWAS-significant. We confirmed our observation in 5p13.1 for rs9292777 using two additional independent Spanish samples to make a total of 4912 MS cases and 7498 controls (ORpooled = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.80-0.89; p = 1.36 × 10-9). This SNP differs from the one reported within this locus in a recent GWAS. Although it is unclear whether both signals are tapping the same genetic association, it seems clear that this locus plays an important role in the pathogenesis of MS.

Estudio bibliométrico de la revista Nutrición Hospitalaria en el periodo 2001 a 2005: Parte I, Análisis de la producción científica.

OBJECTIVE To assess the scientific activity and information production of the journal Nutrición Hospitalaria, for the period 2001-2005 by means of a Bibliometric study. METHOD Cross-sectional descriptive study of the results obtained from the analysis of the articles published in the journal Nutrición Hospitalaria. The data were obtained by consulting the electronic version through the Web. In those cases in which there was a link breakdown, and thus, the inability to have access to the electronic document the printed version was consulted. All the documental possibilities were taken into account with the exception of communications to congresses. RESULTS A total of 345 articles were published, 187 (54.20%) being original articles. The geographical distribution of the first author was Spanish in 287 articles (83.19%) and Latin American in 27 (7.83%). Most of the articles are from health care centers (172 articles (49.86%)), and the cooperation index being 4.15. Madrid is the most productive province, for both the absolute and adjusted frequencies. The median number of references per article is 18, the mean being 23.52 (95% CI 20.93 - 26.10). The predominant language was Spanish, with 308 articles (89.28%). CONCLUSION Nutrición Hospitalaria may be considered as a reference journal regarding information and scientific communication on Nutrition for both the Spanish and Latin American communities. The bibliometric parameters studied compare with those verified for the remaining top of the list Spanish scientific journals on health sciences.

Multiple miscarriages are associated with the risk of ovarian cancer: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

While the risk of ovarian cancer clearly reduces with each full-term pregnancy, the effect of incomplete pregnancies is unclear. We investigated whether incomplete pregnancies (miscarriages and induced abortions) are associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. This observational study was carried out in female participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 274,442 women were followed from 1992 until 2010. The baseline questionnaire elicited information on miscarriages and induced abortions, reproductive history, and lifestyle-related factors. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 1,035 women were diagnosed with incident epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the lack of an overall association (ever vs. never), risk of ovarian cancer was higher among women with multiple incomplete pregnancies (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.70; number of cases in this category: n = 23). This association was particularly evident for multiple miscarriages (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.99, 95% CI: 1.06-3.73; number of cases in this category: n = 10), with no significant association for multiple induced abortions (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.46, 95% CI: 0.68-3.14; number of cases in this category: n = 7). Our findings suggest that multiple miscarriages are associated with an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, possibly through a shared cluster of etiological factors or a common underlying pathology. These findings should be interpreted with caution as this is the first study to show this association and given the small number of cases in the highest exposure categories.

Dietary fibre intake and risks of cancers of the colon and rectum in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND Earlier analyses within the EPIC study showed that dietary fibre intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, but results from some large cohort studies do not support this finding. We explored whether the association remained after longer follow-up with a near threefold increase in colorectal cancer cases, and if the association varied by gender and tumour location. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS After a mean follow-up of 11.0 years, 4,517 incident cases of colorectal cancer were documented. Total, cereal, fruit, and vegetable fibre intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, sex, and centre, and adjusted for total energy intake, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, education, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, oral contraceptive use, and intakes of alcohol, folate, red and processed meats, and calcium. After multivariable adjustments, total dietary fibre was inversely associated with colorectal cancer (HR per 10 g/day increase in fibre 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.96). Similar linear associations were observed for colon and rectal cancers. The association between total dietary fibre and risk of colorectal cancer risk did not differ by age, sex, or anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary variables. Fibre from cereals and fibre from fruit and vegetables were similarly associated with colon cancer; but for rectal cancer, the inverse association was only evident for fibre from cereals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results strengthen the evidence for the role of high dietary fibre intake in colorectal cancer prevention.

Impactia: automating the study of the scientific production

Introduction The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) was set up in June 2006. It consists of a regional government action with the aim of democratizing the health professional access to quality scientific information, regardless of the professional workplace. Andalusia is a region with more than 8 million inhabitants, with 100,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary healthcare centres, and 28 centres for non-medical attention purposes (research, management, and educational centres). Objectives The Department of Development, Research and Investigation (R+D+i) of the Andalusian Regional Government has, among its duties, the task of evaluating the hospitals and centres of the Andalusian Public Health System (SSPA) in order to distribute its funding. Among the criteria used is the evaluation of the scientific output, which is measured using bibliometry. It is well-known that the bibliometry has a series of limitations and problems that should be taken into account, especially when it is used for non-information sciences, such us career, funding, etc. A few years ago, the bibliometric reports were done separately in each centre, but without using preset and well-defined criteria, elements which are basic when we need to compare the results of the reports. It was possible to find some hospitals which were including Meeting Abstracts in their figures, while others do not, and the same was happening with Erratum and many other differences. Therefore, the main problem that the Department of R+D+i had to deal with, when they were evaluating the health system, was that bibliometric data was not accurate and reports were not comparable. With the aim of having an unified criteria for the whole system, the Department of R+D+i ordered the BV-SSPA to do the year analysis of the scientific output of the system, using some well defined criteria and indicators, among whichstands out the Impact Factor. Materials and Methods As the Impact Factor is the bibliometric indicator that the virtual library is asked to consider, it is necessary to use the database Web of Science (WoS), since it is its owner and editor. The WoS includes the databases Science Citation Index (SCI), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI) and Arts & Humanities Citation Index. To gather all the documents, SCI and SSCI are used; to obtain the Impact Factor and quartils, it is used the Journal Citation Reports, JCR. Unlike other bibliographic databases, such us MEDLINE, the bibliometric database WoS includes the address of all the authors. In order to retrieve all the scientific output of the SSPA, we have done general searches, which are afterwards processed by a tool developed by our library. We have done nine different searches using the field ‘address’; eight of them including ‘Spain’ and each one of the eight Andalusian Regions, and the other one combining ‘Spain’ with all those cities where there are health centres, since we have detected that there are some authors that do not use the region in their signatures. These are some of the search strategies: AD=Malaga and AD=Spain AD=Sevill* and AD=Spain AD=SPAIN AND (AD=GUADIX OR AD=BAZA OR AD=MOTRIL) Further more, the field ‘year’ is used to determine the period. To exploit the data, the BV-SSPA has developed a tool called Impactia. It is a web application which uses a database to store the information of the documents generated by the SSPA. Impactia allows the user to automatically process the retrieved documents, assigning them to their correspondent centres. In order to do the classification of documents automaticaly, it was necessary to detect the huge variability of names of the centres that the authors use in their signatures. Therefore, Impactia knows that if an author signs as “Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena”, “HVM” or “Hosp. Virgin Macarena”, he belongs to the same centre. The figure attached shows the variability found for the Empresa Publica Hospital de Poniente. Besides the documents from WoS, Impactia includes the documents indexed in Scopus and in other databases, where we do bibliographic searches using similar strategies to the later ones. Aware that in the health centres and hospitals there is a lot of grey literature that is not gathered in databases, Impactia allows the centres to feed the application with these documents, so that all the SSPA scientific output is gathered and organised in a centralized place. The ones responsible of localizing this gray literature are the librarians of each one of the centres. They can also do statements to the documents and indicators that are collected and calculated by Impactia. The bulk upload of documents from WoS and Scopus into Impactia is monthly done. One of the main issues that we found during the development of Impactia was the need of dealing with duplicated documents obtained from different sources. Taking into account that sometimes titles might be written differently, with slashes, comas, and so on, Impactia detects the duplicates using the field ‘DOI’ if it is available or comparing the fields: page start, page end and ISSN. Therefore it is possible to guarantee the absence of duplicates. Results The data gathered in Impactia becomes available to the administrative teams and hospitals managers, through an easy web page that allows them to know at any moment, and with just one click, the detailed information of the scientific output of their hospitals, including useful graphs such as percentage of document types, journals where their scientists usually publish, annual comparatives, bibliometric indicators and so on. They can also compare the different centres of the SSPA. Impactia allows the user to download the data from the application, so that he can work with this information or include them in their centres’ reports. This application saves the health system many working hours. It was previously done manually by forty one librarians, while now it is done by only one person in the BV-SSPA during two days a month. To sum up, the benefits of Impactia are: It has shown its effectiveness in the automatic classification, treatment and analysis of the data. It has become an essential tool for all managers to evaluate quickly and easily the scientific production of their centers. It optimizes the human resources of the SSPA, saving time and money. It is the reference point for the Department of R+D+i to do the scientific health staff evaluation.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.