17 resultados para Prognostic Models


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Despite medical advances, mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) is still very high. Previous studies on prognosis in IE have observed conflicting results. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter cohort of left-sided IE.Methods An observational multicenter study was conducted from January 1984 to December 2006 in seven hospitals in Andalusia, Spain. Seven hundred and five left-side IE patients were included. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Several prognostic factors were analysed by univariate tests and then by multilogistic regression model. Results.The overall mortality was 29.5% (25.5% from 1984 to 1995 and 31.9% from 1996 to 2006; Odds Ratio 1.25; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.97-1.60; p = 0.07). In univariate analysis, age, comorbidity, especially chronic liver disease, prosthetic valve, virulent microorganism such as Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae and fungi, and complications (septic shock, severe heart failure, renal insufficiency, neurologic manifestations and perivalvular extension) were related with higher mortality. Independent factors for mortality in multivariate analysis were: Charlson comorbidity score (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3), prosthetic endocarditis (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-3.1), Staphylococcus aureus aetiology (OR: 2.1; CI: 1.3-3.5), severe heart failure (OR: 5.4; CI: 3.3-8.8), neurologic manifestations (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-2.9), septic shock (OR: 4.2; CI: 2.3-7.7), perivalvular extension (OR: 2.4; CI: 1.3-4.5) and acute renal failure (OR: 1.69; CI: 1.0-2.6). Conversely, Streptococcus viridans group etiology (OR: 0.4; CI: 0.2-0.7) and surgical treatment (OR: 0.5; CI: 0.3-0.8) were protective factors.Conclusions Several characteristics of left-sided endocarditis enable selection of a patient group at higher risk of mortality. This group may benefit from more specialised attention in referral centers and should help to identify those patients who might benefit from more aggressive diagnostic and/or therapeutic procedures.

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Inflammatory processes described in Parkinson’s disease (PD) and its animal models appear to be important in the progression of the pathogenesis, or even a triggering factor. Here we review that peripheral inflammation enhances the degeneration of the nigrostriatal dopaminergic system induced by different insults; different peripheral inflammations have been used, such as IL-1β and the ulcerative colitis model, as well as insults to the dopaminergic system such as 6-hydroxydopamine or lipopolysaccharide. In all cases, an increased loss of dopaminergic neurons was described; inflammation in the substantia nigra increased, displaying a great activation of microglia along with an increase in the production of cytokines such as IL-1β and TNF-α. Increased permeability or disruption of the BBB, with overexpression of the ICAM-1 adhesion molecule and infiltration of circulating monocytes into the substantia nigra, is also involved, since the depletion of circulating monocytes prevents the effects of peripheral inflammation. Data are reviewed in relation to epidemiological studies of PD.

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BACKGROUND Ovarian carcinoma is the most important cause of gynecological cancer-related mortality in Western societies. Despite the improved median overall survival in patients receiving chemotherapy regimens such as paclitaxel and carboplatin combination, relapse still occurs in most advanced diseased patients. Increased angiogenesis is associated with rapid recurrence and decreased survival in ovarian cancer. This study was planned to identify an angiogenesis-related gene expression profile with prognostic value in advanced ovarian carcinoma patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS RNAs were collected from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples of 61 patients with III/IV FIGO stage ovarian cancer who underwent surgical cytoreduction and received a carboplatin plus paclitaxel regimen. Expression levels of 82 angiogenesis related genes were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction using TaqMan low-density arrays. A 34-gene-profile which was able to predict the overall survival of ovarian carcinoma patients was identified. After a leave-one-out cross validation, the profile distinguished two groups of patients with different outcomes. Median overall survival and progression-free survival for the high risk group was 28.3 and 15.0 months, respectively, and was not reached by patients in the low risk group at the end of follow-up. Moreover, the profile maintained an independent prognostic value in the multivariate analysis. The hazard ratio for death was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.2; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE It is possible to generate a prognostic model for advanced ovarian carcinoma based on angiogenesis-related genes using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples. The present results are consistent with the increasing weight of angiogenesis genes in the prognosis of ovarian carcinoma.

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Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with varied morphological appearances, molecular features, behavior, and response to therapy. Current routine clinical management of breast cancer relies on the availability of robust clinical and pathological prognostic and predictive factors to support clinical and patient decision making in which potentially suitable treatment options are increasingly available. One of the best-established prognostic factors in breast cancer is histological grade, which represents the morphological assessment of tumor biological characteristics and has been shown to be able to generate important information related to the clinical behavior of breast cancers. Genome-wide microarray-based expression profiling studies have unraveled several characteristics of breast cancer biology and have provided further evidence that the biological features captured by histological grade are important in determining tumor behavior. Also, expression profiling studies have generated clinically useful data that have significantly improved our understanding of the biology of breast cancer, and these studies are undergoing evaluation as improved prognostic and predictive tools in clinical practice. Clinical acceptance of these molecular assays will require them to be more than expensive surrogates of established traditional factors such as histological grade. It is essential that they provide additional prognostic or predictive information above and beyond that offered by current parameters. Here, we present an analysis of the validity of histological grade as a prognostic factor and a consensus view on the significance of histological grade and its role in breast cancer classification and staging systems in this era of emerging clinical use of molecular classifiers.

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Ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring has become useful in the diagnosis and management of hypertensive individuals. In addition to 24-hour values, the circadian variation of BP adds prognostic significance in predicting cardiovascular outcome. However, the magnitude of circadian BP patterns in large studies has hardly been noticed. Our aims were to determine the prevalence of circadian BP patterns and to assess clinical conditions associated with the nondipping status in groups of both treated and untreated hypertensive subjects, studied separately. Clinical data and 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring were obtained from 42,947 hypertensive patients included in the Spanish Society of Hypertension Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Registry. They were 8384 previously untreated and 34,563 treated hypertensives. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory BP monitoring was performed with an oscillometric device (SpaceLabs 90207). A nondipping pattern was defined when nocturnal systolic BP dip was <10% of daytime systolic BP. The prevalence of nondipping was 41% in the untreated group and 53% in treated patients. In both groups, advanced age, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and overt cardiovascular or renal disease were associated with a blunted nocturnal BP decline (P<0.001). In treated patients, nondipping was associated with the use of a higher number of antihypertensive drugs but not with the time of the day at which antihypertensive drugs were administered. In conclusion, a blunted nocturnal BP dip (the nondipping pattern) is common in hypertensive patients. A clinical pattern of high cardiovascular risk is associated with nondipping, suggesting that the blunted nocturnal BP dip may be merely a marker of high cardiovascular risk.

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BACKGROUND Taxanes are among the most active drugs for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and, as a consequence, they have also been studied in the adjuvant setting. METHODS After breast cancer surgery, women with lymph node-positive disease were randomly assigned to treatment with fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with FEC followed by weekly paclitaxel (FEC-P). The primary endpoint of study-5-year disease-free survival (DFS)-was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and analysis of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical and molecular (hormone receptors by immunohistochemistry and HER2 by fluorescence in situ hybridization) markers. Associations and interactions were assessed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for DFS for the following covariates: age, menopausal status, tumor size, lymph node status, type of chemotherapy, tumor size, positive lymph nodes, HER2 status, and hormone receptor status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Among the 1246 eligible patients, estimated rates of DFS at 5 years were 78.5% in the FEC-P arm and 72.1% in the FEC arm (difference = 6.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6% to 11.2%; P = .006). FEC-P treatment was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of relapse compared with FEC treatment (146 relapses in the 614 patients in the FEC-P arm vs 193 relapses in the 632 patients in the FEC arm, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.95; P = .022) and a 22% reduction in the risk of death (73 and 95 deaths, respectively, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.06; P = .110). Among the 928 patients for whom tumor samples were centrally analyzed, type of chemotherapy (FEC vs FEC-P) (P = .017), number of involved axillary lymph nodes (P < .001), tumor size (P = .020), hormone receptor status (P = .004), and HER2 status (P = .006) were all associated with DFS. We found no statistically significant interaction between HER2 status and paclitaxel treatment or between hormone receptor status and paclitaxel treatment. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with operable breast cancer, FEC-P treatment statistically significantly reduced the risk of relapse compared with FEC as adjuvant therapy.

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Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early assessment and prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the prognostic value of pro-adrenomedullin (pADM), measured in all patients admitted to the ICU of our hospital with a diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock during 1 year.

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BACKGROUND Several evidences indicate that gut microbiota is involved in the control of host energy metabolism. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the differences in the composition of gut microbiota in rat models under different nutritional status and physical activity and to identify their associations with serum leptin and ghrelin levels. METHODS IN A CASE CONTROL STUDY, FORTY MALE RATS WERE RANDOMLY ASSIGNED TO ONE OF THESE FOUR EXPERIMENTAL GROUPS: ABA group with food restriction and free access to exercise; control ABA group with food restriction and no access to exercise; exercise group with free access to exercise and feed ad libitum and ad libitum group without access to exercise and feed ad libitum. The fecal bacteria composition was investigated by PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and real-time qPCR. RESULTS In restricted eaters, we have found a significant increase in the number of Proteobacteria, Bacteroides, Clostridium, Enterococcus, Prevotella and M. smithii and a significant decrease in the quantities of Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, B. coccoides-E. rectale group, Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium with respect to unrestricted eaters. Moreover, a significant increase in the number of Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium and B. coccoides-E. rectale group was observed in exercise group with respect to the rest of groups. We also found a significant positive correlation between the quantity of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus and serum leptin levels, and a significant and negative correlation among the number of Clostridium, Bacteroides and Prevotella and serum leptin levels in all experimental groups. Furthermore, serum ghrelin levels were negatively correlated with the quantity of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus and B. coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group and positively correlated with the number of Bacteroides and Prevotella. CONCLUSIONS Nutritional status and physical activity alter gut microbiota composition affecting the diversity and similarity. This study highlights the associations between gut microbiota and appetite-regulating hormones that may be important in terms of satiety and host metabolism.

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BACKGROUND Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the cornerstone of treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Although high local control is achieved, overall rates of distant control remain suboptimal. Colorectal carcinogenesis is associated with critical alterations of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway involved in proliferation and survival. The aim of this study was to assess whether CRT induces changes in the expression of β-catenin/E-cadherin, and to determine whether these changes are associated with survival. METHODS The Immunohistochemical expression of nuclear β-catenin and membranous E-cadherin was prospectively analysed in tumour blocks from 98 stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative CRT. Tumour samples were collected before and after CRT treatment. All patients were treated with pelvic RT (46-50 Gy in 2 Gy fractions) and 5-fluorouracil (5FU) intravenous infusion (225 mg/m2) or capecitabine (825 mg/m2) during RT treatment, followed by total mesorectal excision (TME). Disease-free survival (DFS) was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a multivariate Cox regression model was employed for the Multivariate analysis. RESULTS CRT induced significant changes in the expression of nuclear β-catenin (49% of patients presented an increased expression after CRT, 17% a decreased expression and 34% no changes; p = 0.001). After a median follow-up of 25 months, patients that overexpressed nuclear β-catenin after CRT showed poor survival compared with patients that experienced a decrease in nuclear β-catenin expression (3-year DFS 92% vs. 43%, HR 0.17; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.8; p = 0.02). In the multivariate analysis for DFS, increased nuclear β-catenin expression after CRT almost reached the cut-off for significance (p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS In our study, preoperative CRT for LARC induced significant changes in nuclear β-catenin expression, which had a major impact on survival. Finding a way to decrease CRT resistance would significantly improve LARC patient survival.

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BACKGROUND New biomarkers are needed for the prognosis of advanced colorectal cancer, which remains incurable by conventional treatments. O6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation and protein expression have been related to colorectal cancer treatment failure and tumor progression. Moreover, the presence in these tumors of cancer stem cells, which are characterized by CD133 expression, has been associated with chemoresistance, radioresistance, metastasis, and local recurrence. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of CD133 and MGMT and their possible interaction in colorectal cancer patients. METHODS MGMT and CD133 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 123 paraffin-embedded colorectal adenocarcinoma samples, obtaining the percentage staining and intensity. MGMT promoter methylation status was obtained by using bisulfite modification and methylation-specific PCR (MSP). These values were correlated with clinical data, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), tumor stage, and differentiation grade. RESULTS Low MGMT expression intensity was significantly correlated with shorter OS and was a prognostic factor independently of treatment and histopathological variables. High percentage of CD133 expression was significantly correlated with shorter DFS but was not an independent factor. Patients with low-intensity MGMT expression and ≥50% CD133 expression had the poorest DFS and OS outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Our results support the hypothesis that MGMT expression may be an OS biomarker as useful as tumor stage or differentiation grade and that CD133 expression may be a predictive biomarker of DFS. Thus, MGMT and CD133 may both be useful for determining the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients and to identify those requiring more aggressive adjuvant therapies. Future studies will be necessary to determine its clinical utility.

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Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are frequently associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT).The objective of this study was to detect EMT phenotype through Vimentin (VIM) and Slug expression in cytokeratin (CK)-negative CTCs in non-metastatic breast cancer patients and to determine the importance of EGFR in the EMT phenomenon. In CK-negative CTCs samples, both VIM and Slug markers were co-expressed in the most of patients. Among patients EGFR+, half of them were positive for these EMT markers. Furthermore, after a systemic treatment 68% of patients switched from CK- to CK+ CTCs. In our experimental model we found that activation of EGFR signaling by its ligand on MCF-7 cells is sufficient to increase EMT phenotypes, to inhibit apoptotic events and to induce the loss of CK expression. The simultaneous detection of both EGFR and EMT markers in CTCs may improve prognostic or predictive information in patients with operable breast cancer.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

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The aim of this study was to analyze the use of 12 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in genes ELAC2, RNASEL and MSR1 as biomarkers for prostate cancer (PCa) detection and progression, as well as perform a genetic classification of high-risk patients. A cohort of 451 men (235 patients and 216 controls) was studied. We calculated means of regression analysis using clinical values (stage, prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score and progression) in patients and controls at the basal stage and after a follow-up of 72 months. Significantly different allele frequencies between patients and controls were observed for rs1904577 and rs918 (MSR1 gene) and for rs17552022 and rs5030739 (ELAC2). We found evidence of increased risk for PCa in rs486907 and rs2127565 in variants AA and CC, respectively. In addition, rs627928 (TT-GT), rs486907 (AG) and rs3747531 (CG-CC) were associated with low tumor aggressiveness. Some had a weak linkage, such as rs1904577 and rs2127565, rs4792311 and rs17552022, and rs1904577 and rs918. Our study provides the proof-of-principle that some of the genetic variants (such as rs486907, rs627928 and rs2127565) in genes RNASEL, MSR1 and ELAC2 can be used as predictors of aggressiveness and progression of PCa. In the future, clinical use of these biomarkers, in combination with current ones, could potentially reduce the rate of unnecessary biopsies and specific treatments.

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Background: Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to asses the prognostic value of proadrenomedullin (pADM) in adult patients with sepsis with a single measurement in the first 24 hours after the onset of severe sepsis or septic shock. Conclusions: The protein pADM is an important prognostic biomarker of survival when measured on admission of septic patients to the ICU.

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Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML.