14 resultados para Nonparametric Bayes
Resumo:
Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.
Resumo:
Objective: To study the linkage between material deprivation and mortality from all causes, for men and women separately, in the capital cities of the provinces in Andalusia and Catalonia (Spain). Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the census section as the unit for analysis. 188 983 Deaths occurring in the capital cities of the Andalusian provinces and 109 478 deaths recorded in the Catalan capital cities were examined. Principal components factorial analysis was used to devise a material deprivation index comprising the percentage of manual labourers, unemployment and illiteracy. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to study the relationship between mortality and area deprivation. Main results: In most cities, results show an increased male mortality risk in the most deprived areas in relation to the least depressed. In Andalusia, the relative risks between the highest and lowest deprivation decile ranged from 1.24 (Malaga) to 1.40 (Granada), with 95% credibility intervals showing a significant excess risk. In Catalonia, relative risks ranged between 1.08 (Girona) and 1.50 (Tarragona). No evidence was found for an excess of female mortality in most deprived areas in either of the autonomous communities. Conclusions: Within cities, gender-related differences were revealed when deprivation was correlated geographically with mortality rates. These differences were found from an ecological perspective. Further research is needed in order to validate these results from an individual approach. The idea to be analysed is to identify those factors that explain these differences at an individual level.
Resumo:
Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.
Resumo:
Until now, mortality atlases have been static. Most of them describe the geographical distribution of mortality using count data aggregated over time and standardized mortality rates. However, this methodology has several limitations. Count data aggregated over time produce a bias in the estimation of death rates. Moreover, this practice difficult the study of temporal changes in geographical distribution of mortality. On the other hand, using standardized mortality hamper to check differences in mortality among groups. The Interactive Mortality Atlas in Andalusia (AIMA) is an alternative to conventional static atlases. It is a dynamic Geographical Information System that allows visualizing in web-site more than 12.000 maps and 338.00 graphics related to the spatio-temporal distribution of the main death causes in Andalusia by age and sex groups from 1981. The objective of this paper is to describe the methods used for AIMA development, to show technical specifications and to present their interactivity. The system is available from the link products in www.demap.es. AIMA is the first interactive GIS that have been developed in Spain with these characteristics. Spatio-temporal Hierarchical Bayesian Models were used for statistical data analysis. The results were integrated into web-site using a PHP environment and a dynamic cartography in Flash. Thematic maps in AIMA demonstrate that the geographical distribution of mortality is dynamic, with differences among year, age and sex groups. The information nowadays provided by AIMA and the future updating will contribute to reflect on the past, the present and the future of population health in Andalusia.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Challenges exist in the clinical diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and in obtaining information on hepatotoxicity in humans. OBJECTIVE (i) To develop a unified list that combines drugs incriminated in well vetted or adjudicated DILI cases from many recognized sources and drugs that have been subjected to serious regulatory actions due to hepatotoxicity; and (ii) to supplement the drug list with data on reporting frequencies of liver events in the WHO individual case safety report database (VigiBase). DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION (i) Drugs identified as causes of DILI at three major DILI registries; (ii) drugs identified as causes of drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF) in six different data sources, including major ALF registries and previously published ALF studies; and (iii) drugs identified as being subjected to serious governmental regulatory actions due to their hepatotoxicity in Europe or the US were collected. The reporting frequency of adverse events was determined using VigiBase, computed as Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) with 90% confidence interval for two customized terms, 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF'. EBGM of >or=2 was considered a disproportional increase in reporting frequency. The identified drugs were then characterized in terms of regional divergence, published case reports, serious regulatory actions, and reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 'ALF' calculated from VigiBase. DATA SYNTHESIS After excluding herbs, supplements and alternative medicines, a total of 385 individual drugs were identified; 319 drugs were identified in the three DILI registries, 107 from the six ALF registries (or studies) and 47 drugs that were subjected to suspension or withdrawal in the US or Europe due to their hepatotoxicity. The identified drugs varied significantly between Spain, the US and Sweden. Of the 319 drugs identified in the DILI registries of adjudicated cases, 93.4% were found in published case reports, 1.9% were suspended or withdrawn due to hepatotoxicity and 25.7% were also identified in the ALF registries/studies. In VigiBase, 30.4% of the 319 drugs were associated with disproportionally higher reporting frequency of 'overall liver injury' and 83.1% were associated with at least one reported case of ALF. CONCLUSIONS This newly developed list of drugs associated with hepatotoxicity and the multifaceted analysis on hepatotoxicity will aid in causality assessment and clinical diagnosis of DILI and will provide a basis for further characterization of hepatotoxicity.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Several questionnaires have been used to measure health related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with psoriasis, few have been adapted for use in Spain; none of them was developed specifically for the Spanish population. The purpose of the study was to validate and assess the sensitivity to change of a new questionnaire to measure HRQOL in patients with psoriasis (PSO-LIFE). METHODS Observational, prospective, multicenter study performed in centers around Spain. Patients with active or inactive psoriasis completed the PSO-LIFE together with other Dermatology Quality of Life Index (DLQI) and Psoriasis Disability Index (PDI). A control group of patients with urticaria or atopic dermatitis was also included. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PSO-LIFE were assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC). Validity was assessed by examining factorial structure, the capacity to discriminate between groups, and correlations with other measures. Sensitivity to change was measured using effect sizes. RESULTS The final sample included for analysis consisted of 304 patients and 56 controls. Mean (SD) age of psoriasis patients was 45.3 (14.5) years compared to 38.8 (14) years for controls (p < 0.01). Cronbach's alpha for the PSO-LIFE was 0.95 and test-retest reliability using the ICC was 0.98. Factor analysis showed the questionnaire to be unidimensional. Mean (SD) PSO-LIFE scores differed between patients with psoriasis and controls (64.9 [22.5] vs 69.4 [17.3]; p < 0.05), between those with active and inactive disease (57.4 [20.4] vs 76.4 [20.6]; p < 0.01), and between those with visible and non-visible lesions (63.0 [21.9] vs. 74.8 [23.9]; p < 0.01). The correlation between PSO-LIFE and PASI scores was moderate (r = -0.43) while correlations with DLQI and PDI dimensions ranged from moderate to high (between 0.4 and 0.8). Effect size on the PSO-LIFE in patients reporting 'much improved' health status at study completion was 1.01 (large effect size). CONCLUSIONS The present results provide substantial support for the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the PSO-LIFE questionnaire in the population for which it was designed.
Resumo:
BACKGROUNDS AUDIPOC is a nationwide clinical audit that describes the characteristics, interventions and outcomes of patients admitted to Spanish hospitals because of an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD), assessing the compliance of these parameters with current international guidelines. The present study describes hospital resources, hospital factors related to case recruitment variability, patients' characteristics, and adherence to guidelines. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS An organisational database was completed by all participant hospitals recording resources and organisation. Over an 8-week period 11,564 consecutive ECOPD admissions to 129 Spanish hospitals covering 70% of the Spanish population were prospectively identified. At hospital discharge, 5,178 patients (45% of eligible) were finally included, and thus constituted the audited population. Audited patients were reassessed 90 days after admission for survival and readmission rates. A wide variability was observed in relation to most variables, hospital adherence to guidelines, and readmissions and death. Median inpatient mortality was 5% (across-hospital range 0-35%). Among discharged patients, 37% required readmission (0-62%) and 6.5% died (0-35%). The overall mortality rate was 11.6% (0-50%). Hospital size and complexity and aspects related to hospital COPD awareness were significantly associated with case recruitment. Clinical management most often complied with diagnosis and treatment recommendations but rarely (<50%) addressed guidance on healthy life-styles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The AUDIPOC study highlights the large across-hospital variability in resources and organization of hospitals, patient characteristics, process of care, and outcomes. The study also identifies resources and organizational characteristics associated with the admission of COPD cases, as well as aspects of daily clinical care amenable to improvement.
Resumo:
Iodine deficiency is an important clinical and public health problem. Its prevention begins with an adequate intake of iodine during pregnancy. International agencies recommend at least 200 microg iodine per d for pregnant women. We assessed whether iodine concentrations in the amniotic fluid of healthy pregnant women are independent of iodine intake. This cross-sectional, non-interventional study included 365 consecutive women who underwent amniocentesis to determine the fetal karyotype. The amniocentesis was performed with abdominal antisepsis using chlorhexidine. The iodine concentration was measured in urine and amniotic fluid. The study variables were the intake of iodized salt and multivitamin supplements or the prescription of a KI supplement. The mean level of urinary iodine was 139.0 (SD 94.5) microg/l and of amniotic fluid 15.81 (SD 7.09) microg/l. The women who consumed iodized salt and those who took a KI supplement had significantly higher levels of urinary iodine than those who did not (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively). The urinary iodine levels were not significantly different in the women who took a multivitamin supplement compared with those who did not take this supplement, independently of iodine concentration or multivitamin supplement. The concentrations of iodine in the amniotic fluid were similar, independent of the dietary iodine intake. Urine and amniotic fluid iodine concentrations were weakly correlated, although the amniotic fluid values were no higher in those women taking a KI supplement. KI prescription at recommended doses increases the iodine levels in the mother without influencing the iodine levels in the amniotic fluid.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is a major public health problems, according to WHO, is the leading cause of death, when it affects the group of hospitalized patients, making denominating separate entity "hospital malnutrition". OBJECTIVES: The overall objective is to quantify the main diagnoses frequently high, causing exitus, with secondary diagnosis of malnutrition. METHODS: This is a descriptive study, which included all hospital discharges in 2011 and first half of 2012, which have been exitus and whose secondary diagnosis of malnutrition, with the total of 33. We performed a descriptive analysis, effected the Mann-Whitney nonparametric test (p < 0.05). RESULTS: The most frequent main diagnoses among 33 analyzed are high sepsis (12.1%), liver metastases (9.1%), pneumonia (6.1%), acute respiratory failure (6.1%) and renal acute renal (6.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the most frequent primary diagnosis of sepsis, by grouping the diagnoses, the most frequent DRG is respiratory disease, so it has to make comprehensive and quality coding to adjust the relative weight of the same reality. It is essential to specify the source of clinical information used for coding, the degree of malnutrition, for greater specificity in the data.
Resumo:
INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Satisfaction of inpatients with served food within a hospital care system still constitutes one of the main attempts to modernize food services. The impact of type of menu, food category, hospital centre and timetable on the meals wastage produced in different Spanish healthcare settings, was evaluated. METHODS: Meal wastage was measured through a semiquantitative 5-point scale ("nothing on plate"; "¼ on plate"; "half on plate"; "¾ on plate" and "all on plate"). The study was carried out in two periods of three months each in 2010 and 2011. A trained person took charge of measuring plate waste classified into 726 servings belonging to 11 menus. In total 31,392 plates were served to 7,868 inpatients. A Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test (p < 0.05) was applied to evaluate significant differences among the variables studied. RESULTS: The menus were satisfactorily consumed because more than 50% of the plates were classified as "nothing on plate". Regarding food categories, 26.78% of the plates corresponded to soups and purées, while pasta and rice, and prepared foods were only distributed in 4-5% of the servings. Desserts were mostly consumed, while cooked vegetables were less accepted by the inpatients evaluated. Other factors such as hospital centre influenced plate waste (p < 0.05) but timetable did not (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Visual inspections of plate waste might be useful to optimize type and quality of menus served. The type of menu served and the food category could have a great influence on food acceptability by the inpatientsstudied.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.
Resumo:
The aim of this work is to make known the multicentric project AMCAC, whose objective is to describe the geographical distribution of mortality from all causes in census groups of the provincial capitals of Andalusia and Catalonia during 1992-2002 and 1994-2000 respectively, and to study the relationship between the sociodemographic characteristics of the census groups and mortality. This is an ecological study in which the analytical unit is the census group. The data correspond to 298,731 individuals (152,913 men and 145,818 women) who died during the study periods in the towns of Almeria, Barcelona, Cadiz, Cordoba, Girona, Granada, Huelva, Jaen, Lleida, Malaga, Seville and Tarragona during the study periods. The dependent variable is the number of deaths observed per census group. The independent variables are the percentage of unemployment, illiteracy and manual workers. Estimation of the moderated relative risk and the study of the associations among the sociodemographic characteristics of the census groups and the mortality will be done for each town and each sex using the Besag-York-Mollie model. Dissemination of the results will help to improve and broaden knowledge about the population's health, and will provide an important starting point to establish the influence of contextual variables on the health of urban populations.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Low back pain and its associated incapacitating effects constitute an important healthcare and socioeconomic problem, as well as being one of the main causes of disability among adults of working age. The prevalence of non-specific low back pain is very high among the general population, and 60-70% of adults are believed to have suffered this problem at some time. Nevertheless, few randomised clinical trials have been made of the efficacy and efficiency of acupuncture with respect to acute low back pain. The present study is intended to assess the efficacy of acupuncture for acute low back pain in terms of the improvement reported on the Roland Morris Questionnaire (RMQ) on low back pain incapacity, to estimate the specific and non-specific effects produced by the technique, and to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS/DESIGN Randomised four-branch controlled multicentre prospective study made to compare semi-standardised real acupuncture, sham acupuncture (acupuncture at non-specific points), placebo acupuncture and conventional treatment. The patients are blinded to the real, sham and placebo acupuncture treatments. Patients in the sample present symptoms of non specific acute low back pain, with a case history of 2 weeks or less, and will be selected from working-age patients, whether in paid employment or not, referred by General Practitioners from Primary Healthcare Clinics to the four clinics participating in this study. In order to assess the primary and secondary result measures, the patients will be requested to fill in a questionnaire before the randomisation and again at 3, 12 and 48 weeks after starting the treatment. The primary result measure will be the clinical relevant improvement (CRI) at 3 weeks after randomisation. We define CRI as a reduction of 35% or more in the RMQ results. DISCUSSION This study is intended to obtain further evidence on the effectiveness of acupuncture on acute low back pain and to isolate the specific and non-specific effects of the treatment.