Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Colorectal Cancer Classification and Cell Heterogeneity: A Systems Oncology Approach.

Colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous disease that manifests through diverse clinical scenarios. During many years, our knowledge about the variability of colorectal tumors was limited to the histopathological analysis from which generic classifications associated with different clinical expectations are derived. However, currently we are beginning to understand that under the intense pathological and clinical variability of these tumors there underlies strong genetic and biological heterogeneity. Thus, with the increasing available information of inter-tumor and intra-tumor heterogeneity, the classical pathological approach is being displaced in favor of novel molecular classifications. In the present article, we summarize the most relevant proposals of molecular classifications obtained from the analysis of colorectal tumors using powerful high throughput techniques and devices. We also discuss the role that cancer systems biology may play in the integration and interpretation of the high amount of data generated and the challenges to be addressed in the future development of precision oncology. In addition, we review the current state of implementation of these novel tools in the pathological laboratory and in clinical practice.

El proyecto EMECAM: Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad. Antecedentes, participantes, objetivos y métodología.

In recent years, a growing number of studies suggests that increases in air pollution levels may have short-term impact on human health, even at pollution levels similar to or lower than those which have been considered to be safe to date. The different methodological approaches and the varying analysis techniques employed have made it difficult to make a direct comparison among all of the findings, preventing any clear conclusions from being drawn. This has led to multicenter projects such as the APHEA (Short-Term Impact of Air Pollution on Health. A European Approach) within a European Scope. The EMECAM Project falls within the context of the aforesaid multicenter studies and has a wide-ranging projection nationwide within Spain. Fourteen (14) cities throughout Spain were included in this Project (Barcelona, Metropolitan Area of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Pamplona, Seville, Oviedo, Valencia, Vigo, Vitoria and Saragossa) representing different sociodemographic, climate and environmental situations, adding up to a total of nearly nine million inhabitants. The objective of the EMECAM project is that to asses the short-term impact of air pollution throughout all of the participating cities on the mortality for all causes, on the population and on individuals over age 70, for respiratory and cardiovascular design causes. For this purpose, with an ecological, the time series data analyzed taking the daily deaths, pollutants, temperature data and other factors taken from records kept by public institutions. The period of time throughout which this study was conducted, although not exactly the same for all of the cities involved, runs in all cases from 1990 to 1996. The degree of relationship measured by means of an autoregressive Poisson regression. In the future, the results of each city will be combined by means of a meta-analysis.

Fosfomycin versus meropenem in bacteraemic urinary tract infections caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (FOREST): study protocol for an investigator-driven randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION Finding therapeutic alternatives to carbapenems in infections caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is imperative. Although fosfomycin was discovered more than 40 years ago, it was not investigated in accordance with current standards and so is not used in clinical practice except in desperate situations. It is one of the so-called neglected antibiotics of high potential interest for the future. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The main objective of this project is to demonstrate the clinical non-inferiority of intravenous fosfomycin with regard to meropenem for treating bacteraemic urinary tract infections (UTI) caused by ESBL-EC. This is a 'real practice' multicentre, open-label, phase III randomised controlled trial, designed to compare the clinical and microbiological efficacy, and safety of intravenous fosfomycin (4 g/6 h) and meropenem (1 g/8 h) as targeted therapy for this infection; a change to oral therapy is permitted after 5 days in both arms, in accordance with predetermined options. The study design follows the latest recommendations for designing trials investigating new options for multidrug-resistant bacteria. Secondary objectives include the study of fosfomycin concentrations in plasma and the impact of both drugs on intestinal colonisation by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacilli. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval was obtained from the Andalusian Coordinating Institutional Review Board (IRB) for Biomedical Research (Referral Ethics Committee), which obtained approval from the local ethics committees at all participating sites in Spain (22 sites). Data will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. DISCUSSION This project is proposed as an initial step in the investigation of an orphan antimicrobial of low cost with high potential as a therapeutic alternative in common infections such as UTI in selected patients. These results may have a major impact on the use of antibiotics and the development of new projects with this drug, whether as monotherapy or combination therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02142751. EudraCT no: 2013-002922-21. Protocol V.1.1 dated 14 March 2014.